by Timothy McQuiston, Vermont Business Magazine Vermont initial weekly unemployment claims increased for the second straight week last week. For the week ending April 11, 2026, the Vermont Department of Labor reported that there were 480 new claims, up 118 from the previous week and up 48 from last year at this time. New claims had leveled off at under 400 after the holiday season, other than one spike in February. Meanwhile, total claims were 3,693, down 135 from the week before and are up 79 from last year at this time. Initial claims, which tend to be lowest in the summer, were 186 in September 2025.
Nationally, all three major stock indexes rebounded strongly following news of a ceasefire in the Middle East, which resulted in a drop in oil prices with the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The Dow, S&P and Nasdaq are all back in the black for 2026 and posted a winning week.
Still, the jobs report was weak and inflation persisted well above Fed targets, while GDP was revised down to 0.7%. The Fed, which met recently, left interest unchanged, as expected. But the poor employment numbers coupled with an erratic stock market had put pressure on the Fed to cut rates to stimulate the economy, which could still happen at their next meeting in May. However, it is more likely that the Fed will hold rates where they are as they continue to take a wait-and-see approach.
In Vermont for the weekly labor UI claims report, manufacturing accounted for 27% of the total, up 13 points from the previous week. Manufacturing overall has become a smaller part of the Vermont economy over the last 25 years and that trend appears to be continuing. The Service industry, which typically accounts for the most claims, last week reported 59% from the previous week, down 2 points. Construction was 5%, down 4 points.
According to the US DOL, for the week ending April 11, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 207,000, a decrease of 11,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised down by 1,000 from 219,000 to 218,000. The 4-week moving average was 209,750, an increase of 500 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised down by 250 from 209,500 to 209,250.
The Vermont Unemployment Trust Fund is well capitalized. As of the most recent data, there was $308.9 million in the Trust Fund, down $2 million from the previous week (as claims are paid out on one side, employers are contributing to the fund on the other). The pre-pandemic Trust Fund balance on March 1, 2020, was $506.2 million.
Tax revenues slip below targets in February
Secretary of Administration Sarah Clark on March 27 released Vermont’s revenue results for February 2026. The General and Transportation Funds both missed their monthly targets, and the Education Fund exceeded its monthly target. Cumulatively, the total year-to-date is slightly below expectations.
The State’s General Fund, Transportation Fund, and Education Fund receipts were a combined $196.26 million, representing collections -$5.86 million, or 2.9%, below the $202.12 million monthly target from the consensus forecast adopted by the Emergency Board at its January 16, 2026, meeting.
Total General Fund revenues for February were $116.01 million, -$3.89 million, or 3.25%, below the $120.01 million monthly cash flow target. The Personal Income Tax, the state's most important GF revenue source, had a strong month at 8% over targets. Meals & Rooms also did well, suggesting that tourism had a good month of February. Those taxes were undermined by weakness in Corporate and Insurance Premium results, which were down for the month and down for the year-to-date, as the state comes down the stretch of the fiscal year (June 30).
Revenues in the Transportation Fund were $18.13 million, representing collections -$3.86 million, or 17.54%, below target, with receipts for Gasoline and Diesel taxes representing the largest shortfalls from the target. All the major sources were below expectations, including the gas tax and vehicle purchase.
Monthly Education Fund revenues of $62.02 million were $1.9 million, or 3.7%, above their February cash flow target of $60.12 million, with all components except for Sales Tax and Motor Vehicle Purchase & Use finishing ahead of monthly consensus targets. The Education Fund was supported by Meals & Rooms and a strong month for lottery sales.
Vermont’s unemployment rate held at 2.7 percent in January
The Vermont Department of Labor released the January 2026 unemployment rate on April 8. According to household data, the seasonally adjusted statewide unemployment rate for January was 2.7 percent. This reflects no change from the prior month’s revised estimate (which had been 2.6%). The Vermont jobless rate has not been this high since December 2021 (2.8%). Still, Vermont's jobless rate is tied for fourth lowest in the nation. Hawaii and South Dakota are tied for first (2.2%) and California and Delaware are tied for highest (5.4%).
The comparable United States rate in January was 4.3 percent, a decrease of one-tenth of one percentage point from the revised December estimate.
The civilian labor force participation rate was 63.5 percent in January, a decrease of two-tenths of one percentage point from the prior month’s revised estimate.
“At the same time, these trends underscore the significant opportunities that remain for job seekers and students to find career pathways that work for them in Vermont and step into in-demand roles across our economy—particularly through proven, earn-while-you-learn models like Registered Apprenticeships. As we recognize National Apprenticeship Week later this month, it’s an important opportunity to highlight these pathways and the role they play in strengthening Vermont’s workforce.”
The gaps are due to the government shutdown last fall. USDOL said the data will not be reconfigured.
The seasonally adjusted Vermont data for January show the Vermont civilian labor force decreased by 1,329 from the prior month’s revised estimate (see Table 1). The number of employed persons decreased by 1,361 and the number of unemployed persons increased by 32. None of the changes were statistically significant in the seasonally adjusted series.
The January unemployment rates for Vermont’s 14 counties ranged from 2.5 percent in Chittenden County to 6.4 percent in Orleans County (note: county unemployment rates are not seasonally-adjusted – see Table 2). For comparison, the January unadjusted unemployment rate for Vermont was 3.2 percent, an increase of six-tenths of one percentage point from the revised unadjusted December level and an increase of two-tenths of one percentage point from a year ago.
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