Tax revenues slip below targets in February

Tax revenues slip below targets in February

by Timothy McQuiston, Vermont Business Magazine Secretary of Administration Sarah Clark today released Vermont’s revenue results for February 2026. The General and Transportation Funds both missed their monthly targets, and the Education Fund exceeded its monthly target. Cumulatively, the total year-to-date is slightly below expectations.

The State’s General Fund, Transportation Fund, and Education Fund receipts were a combined $196.26 million, representing collections -$5.86 million, or 2.9%, below the $202.12 million monthly target from the consensus forecast adopted by the Emergency Board at its January 16, 2026, meeting. 

Total General Fund revenues for February were $116.01 million, -$3.89 million, or 3.25%, below the $120.01 million monthly cash flow target. The Personal Income Tax, the state's most important GF revenue source, had a strong month at 8% over targets. Meals & Rooms also did well, suggesting that tourism had a good month of February. Those taxes were undermined by weakness in Corporate and Insurance Premium results, which were down for the month and down for the year-to-date, as the state comes down the stretch of the fiscal year (June 30).

Revenues in the Transportation Fund were $18.13 million, representing collections -$3.86 million, or 17.54%, below target, with receipts for Gasoline and Diesel taxes representing the largest shortfalls from the target. All the major sources were below expectations, including the gas tax and vehicle purchase.

Monthly Education Fund revenues of $62.02 million were $1.9 million, or 3.7%, above their February cash flow target of $60.12 million, with all components except for Sales Tax and Motor Vehicle Purchase & Use finishing ahead of monthly consensus targets. The Education Fund was supported by Meals & Rooms and a strong month for lottery sales.

Tax revenues slip below targets in February

According to Secretary Clark: “Revenues to the Education Fund remain ahead of their forecasted target. General Fund and Transportation Fund revenues are behind their cumulative targets for the fiscal year, but the General Fund shortfall represents less than half of a percentage point from the expected cumulative total, and the Transportation Fund is behind by just over two percent.”

Tax revenues slip below targets in FebruaryTax revenues slip below targets in FebruaryTax revenues slip below targets in FebruaryTax revenues slip below targets in February

Source: 3.27.2026. Agency of Administration

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