Vermont Business Magazine Weekly unemployment cratered last week after two weeks of very high numbers. After a long period of very low numbers, claims have been higher over the last two months and now have entered the holiday period, which typically brings with it wild swings in claims, as retailers hire and then lay off seasonal workers.
Initial claims for the week of December 14, 2019, were 539, down 438 from last week and 58 fewer than they were at this time last year. Thanksgiving was much later this year, which could have altered the timing of the usual holiday hiring/firing.
Altogether 4,108 new and continuing claims were filed, a decrease of 820 from a week ago, and 129 fewer than a year ago.
Nationwide, according to the US Labor Department for the week ending December 14, initial claims for state unemployment benefits were higher than expected at 234,000. Economists were anticipating about 225,000. Even so, this is lower than the previous week's two-year high of 252,000, which was the highest level since September 2017. Claims had been rising in recent months.
The 4-week moving average rose by 1,500 to 225,500 claims. After a long decline from the Great Recession in 2009, claims had generally leveled off over the past year, until the recent increase.
For most weeks of 2017 and 2018 claims were lower than the year before, but have been up and down in 2019. This suggests the labor situation has settled after several years of a tighter and tighter labor market following the Great Recession of 10 years ago.
Vermont, like the nation as a whole, has been locked into a historically low period of unemployment and a tight labor market. If this is so, claims for the week and year should look similar to the prior year, as they have the last several months.
For UI claims last week by industry, Services, which typically accounts for most claims, represented 32 percent of all claims. Construction claims represented 41 percent for the week, but in actual claims held about even and similar to last year as the industry largely slows down for the season. Manufacturing fell to 11 percent.
Vermont's unemployment rate for November increased to 2.3 percent. Vermont's rate is lowest in the nation. SEE STORY. The US rate was 3.5 percent, down one tenth from the previous month.
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UI tax rates for employers fell again on July 1, 2018, as claims continue to be lower than previous projections. Individual employers' reduced taxable wage rates will vary according to their experience rating; however, the rate reduction will lower the highest UI tax rate from 7.7 percent to 6.5 percent. The lowest UI tax rate will see a reduction from 1.1 percent to 0.8 percent.
Also effective July 1, 2018, the maximum weekly unemployment benefit will be indexed upwards to 57% of the average weekly wage. The current maximum weekly benefit amount is $466, which will increase to $498. Both changes are directly tied to the change in the Tax Rate Schedule.
Vermont's minimum wage rose to $10.78 on January 1, 2019.
The Unemployment Weekly Report can be found at: http://www.vtlmi.info/. Previously released Unemployment Weekly Reports and other UI reports can be found at: http://www.vtlmi.info/lmipub.htm#uc
NOTE: Employment (nonfarm payroll) - A count of all persons who worked full- or part-time or received pay from a nonagricultural employer for any part of the pay period which included the 12th of the month. Because this count comes from a survey of employers, persons who work for two different companies would be counted twice. Therefore, nonfarm payroll employment is really a count of the number of jobs, rather than the number of persons employed. Persons may receive pay from a job if they are temporarily absent due to illness, bad weather, vacation, or labor-management dispute. This count is based on where the jobs are located, regardless of where the workers reside, and is therefore sometimes referred to as employment "by place of work." Nonfarm payroll employment data are collected and compiled based on the Current Employment Statistics (CES) survey, conducted by the Vermont Department of Labor. This count was formerly referred to as nonagricultural wage and salary employment.
