Vermont Business Magazine As of yet, there has been little impact on jobs from the coronavirus (COVID-19) in Vermont or nationally. Weekly unemployment claims (which lag the actual economy by several days), surprisingly fell in Vermont and across the US last week after rising in consecutive prior weeks. Initial claims for the week of March 7, 2020, were 446, down 417, to the lowest level this year. Claims were 16 more than they were at this time last year.
Altogether 5,665 new and continuing claims were filed, a decrease of 237 from a week ago and 210 fewer than a year ago.
Nationwide, according to the US Labor Department for the week ending March 7, initial claims for state unemployment benefits were down 4,000 claims to 211,000. Economists were anticipating about 218,000 and believe that layoffs are coming but just haven't hit yet.
The 4-week moving average rose 1,250 to 214,000 claims. After a long decline from the Great Recession in 2009, claims have generally leveled off over the past year.
According to Reuters: "Economists are predicting the Fed will reduce its benchmark overnight interest rate to zero by year-end, given low inflation expectations, underscored by a plunge in Treasury yields," and that the Fed in the near term will cut them another .75% when they meet March 17-18. This will push rates overall as low as .25%. They cut them .5% already in an emergency action last week. However, the stock market had its worst day on Thursday since 1987. The DOW, S&P and Nasdaq all lost nearly 10 percent.
Markets were rallying Friday morning after a big Fed push to provide $1.5 trillion in short-term financing, according to the New York Times.
For most weeks of 2017 and 2018 claims were lower than the year before, but have been up and down since mid-2019.
Vermont, like the nation as a whole, has been locked into a historically low period of unemployment and a tight labor market. If this is so, claims for the week and year should look similar to the prior year, as they had been the last several months.
For UI claims last week in Vermont by industry, Services, which typically accounts for most claims, represented 38 percent of all claims, which was a steep drop from the previous week. Construction claims were at 26 percent for the week, which in total terms was about the same as the previous week. Manufacturing also was about the same at 26 percent percent.
Vermont's unemployment rate for December held at 2.3 percent. Vermont's rate is tied for lowest in the nation. SEE STORY. The US rate in January rose one-tenth to 3.6 percent. Vermont will not release its January rate until March 16 to allow for year-end adjustments; the Unemployment and Jobs Report for February is scheduled to be released on March 27.
Stories:
January tax revenues ahead of targets to start year
Businesses to see double-digit rate decrease in workers’ comp insurance in 2020
Tax revenues finish year nearly $60 million above targets
UI tax rates for employers fell again on July 1, 2018, as claims continue to be lower than previous projections. Individual employers' reduced taxable wage rates will vary according to their experience rating; however, the rate reduction will lower the highest UI tax rate from 7.7 percent to 6.5 percent. The lowest UI tax rate will see a reduction from 1.1 percent to 0.8 percent.
Also effective July 1, 2018, the maximum weekly unemployment benefit will be indexed upwards to 57% of the average weekly wage. The current maximum weekly benefit amount is $466, which will increase to $498. Both changes are directly tied to the change in the Tax Rate Schedule.
Vermont's minimum wage rose to $10.78 on January 1, 2019.
The Unemployment Weekly Report can be found at: http://www.vtlmi.info/. Previously released Unemployment Weekly Reports and other UI reports can be found at: http://www.vtlmi.info/lmipub.htm#uc
NOTE: Employment (nonfarm payroll) - A count of all persons who worked full- or part-time or received pay from a nonagricultural employer for any part of the pay period which included the 12th of the month. Because this count comes from a survey of employers, persons who work for two different companies would be counted twice. Therefore, nonfarm payroll employment is really a count of the number of jobs, rather than the number of persons employed. Persons may receive pay from a job if they are temporarily absent due to illness, bad weather, vacation, or labor-management dispute. This count is based on where the jobs are located, regardless of where the workers reside, and is therefore sometimes referred to as employment "by place of work." Nonfarm payroll employment data are collected and compiled based on the Current Employment Statistics (CES) survey, conducted by the Vermont Department of Labor. This count was formerly referred to as nonagricultural wage and salary employment.
