by Timothy McQuiston, Vermont Business Magazine Secretary of Administration Sarah Clark today released Vermont’s revenue results for July 2025, which showed a generally positive result. The vital Personal Income tax had another good month and exceeded its target by 16.4%. The PI is the best indicator of the overall economy. The Corporate Income tax, which tends to be more volatile, was up nearly 35%. On the downside was the Meals & Rooms tax, which has struggled for over a year. It missed its targets again, off 5.5% for the Education Fund portion.
The reasons for the drop in M&R, which is an indicator of tourism activity, are still speculative. In 2024, with Americans having plenty of cash-on-hand, there was much foreign travel. In 2025, there have been fewer Canadian visitors, particularly in the northern part of Vermont, presumably because of tariff tensions created by the White House.
Overall, the General Fund and Education Fund exceeded their respective monthly consensus cash flow target as adopted by the Emergency Board at its July 2025 meeting. The Transportation Fund was slightly below target. July is the first year of the fiscal year (FY26). FY25 concluded in June with a solid General Fund total nearly $90 million above expectations, despite slipping the last couple of months.
The State’s General Fund, Transportation Fund, and Education Fund receipts were a combined $273.0 million, exceeding the $256.9 million monthly consensus target by $16.1 million, or 6.3%, as adopted by the Emergency Board at its July 2025 meeting.
Total General Fund revenues for July were $15.4 million, or 9.4%, above the $163.2 million monthly consensus cash flow target. Personal and Corporate Income Tax revenues, ahead of consensus revenue expectations by $13.0 million and $4.5 million respectively, drove this performance.
Revenues in the Transportation Fund fell short of their $24.8 million July consensus target by (-$0.4 million), or (-1.5%), yielding $24.5 million in total, driven by Motor Vehicle Purchase & Use (MvP&U) Tax and Other Fees. MvP&U Tax revenues were (-$0.5M), or (-7.1%), below monthly consensus expectations, and Other Fees were (-$0.1 million), or (-7.0%), below target.
Monthly Education Fund revenues of $70.0 million were $1.1 million, or 1.6%, above their July $68.9 million cash flow target. Sales and Use Tax collections of $1.7 million, or 3.0%, over target offset underperformance in Mv Purchase and Use (-$0.3 million) or (-7.1%) below target and the Meals and Rooms Tax (-$0.3 million) or (-5.5%) below target.
Secretary Clark said: “July revenue results were generally in line with expectations for the first month of the fiscal year, with General Fund revenues bolstered primarily by Personal and Corporate Income Tax revenues. However, it is premature to draw any conclusions about the fiscal year as a whole.”
8.18.2025. Montpelier, VT – Secretary of Administration
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