by Timothy McQuiston, Vermont Business Magazine Vermont initial weekly unemployment claims rose last week after they had more than doubled two weeks ago and then settled back. For the week ending March 14, 2026, the Vermont Department of Labor reported that there were 461 new claims, up 141 from the previous week and up 64 from last year at this time. New claims had leveled off at under 400 after the holiday season and, other than the recent spike, are now at their highest level since mid-January. Meanwhile, total claims were 4,324, down 343 from the week before and are up 127 from last year at this time. Initial claims, which tend to be lowest in the summer, were 186 in September 2025.
Nationally, all three major stock indexes suffered for the fourth week as the bombing in Iran continued, the jobs report was weak and inflation persisted well above Fed targets, while GDP was revised down to 0.7%. The Fed, which met this week, left interest unchanged, as expected. But the poor employment numbers coupled with a sagging stock market (the Dow, S&P and Nasdaq are all in the red for 2026) had put pressure on the Fed to cut rates to stimulate the economy, but with inflation pushing upwards in addition to the recent spike in gas and oil prices, the Fed is taking a wait-and-see approach. Brent crude today topped $113 a barrel at its high of the day and WTI oil trading over $98 a barrel. Mortgage rates also are up just as the spring housing market traditionally begins.
In Vermont for the weekly labor UI claims report, manufacturing accounted for 23% of the total, up 14 points from the previous week. Manufacturing overall has become a smaller part of the Vermont economy over the last 25 years and that trend appears to be continuing. The Service industry, which typically accounts for the most claims, last week reported 49% from the previous week, up 5 points. Construction was 12%, down 13 points.
Service hiring is strong during the holidays then slumps, while cold weather slows down construction.
According to the US DOL, for the week ending March 14, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 205,000, a decrease of 8,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 213,000. The 4-week moving average was 210,750, a decrease of 750 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised down by 500 from 212,000 to 211,500.
The Vermont Unemployment Trust Fund is well capitalized. As of the most recent data, there was $308.9 million in the Trust Fund, down $2 million from the previous week (as claims are paid out on one side, employers are contributing to the fund on the other). The pre-pandemic Trust Fund balance on March 1, 2020, was $506.2 million.
Vermont tax revenues hover just below targets
Secretary of Administration Sarah Clark on February 20 released Vermont’s revenue results for January 2026, which showed the General Fund again lagged behind targets. The Corporate tax was well below expectations, but the Personal income tax bounced back and is now just ahead of expectations for the year. The Transportation Fund also missed its monthly targets, while the Education Fund exceeded its monthly target. Consumption taxes had an overall good month, which reflects on travel and tourism.
The State’s General Fund, Transportation Fund, and Education Fund receipts were a combined $378.85 million, representing collections -$0.33 million, or 0.09% below the $379.17 million monthly target from the updated consensus forecast as adopted by the Emergency Board at its January 16, 2026, meeting.
Total General Fund revenues for January were $274.03 million, -$1.41 million or 0.5% below the $275.44 million monthly cash flow target, driven by a third month of lagging Corporate Income Tax receipts.
Revenues in the Transportation Fund were $22.8 million, representing collections -$0.5 million or 2.1% below target, with receipts in the Purchase & Use and Motor Vehicle fees finishing below their respective January targets.
Monthly Education Fund revenues of $82.02 million were $1.56 million, or 1.9%, above their January cash flow target of $80.46 million, with all components except for Motor Vehicle Purchase & Use finishing ahead of monthly consensus targets.
Vermont’s unemployment rate holds at 2.6 percent in December
The Vermont Department of Labor has reported that the seasonally adjusted statewide unemployment rate for December was 2.6%. This reflects no change from the prior month’s revised estimate. Vermont has the third-lowest rate in the nation behind a tie behind Hawaii and South Dakota (2.2%). California has the highest rate at 5.5%.
The comparable United States rate in December was 4.4%, a decrease of one-tenth of one percentage point from the revised November estimate.
The civilian labor force participation rate was 64.0% in December, a decrease of two-tenths of one percentage point from the prior month’s revised estimate.
The data continues to show significant reductions in the Labor Force and Employed month-to-month and year-to-year. The Labor Force is the denominator in the equations, so when it goes down it minimizes the losses in the Employed category. The number of Unemployed is essentially unchanged.
See data tables below.
"The Vermont Department of Labor works directly with employers to help them hire, retain, and support the workers they need to succeed,” said Kendal Smith, Vermont Department of Labor Commissioner. “At the same time, we are helping Vermonters connect with available job opportunities as labor market conditions shift. Maximizing every working Vermonter’s potential helps workers build sustainable careers while strengthening and stabilizing Vermont businesses. Through partnerships with local Department of Labor offices (https://labor.vermont.gov/workforce-development/job-centers), businesses can access customized services and resources, while workers can explore additional training or education options to support their next steps.”
The seasonally adjusted Vermont data for December show the Vermont civilian labor force decreased by 1,171 from the prior month’s revised estimate. The number of employed persons decreased by 1,207 and the number of unemployed persons increased by 36. The changes to the labor force and the number of employed persons were statistically significant in the seasonally adjusted series.
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