by Timothy McQuiston, Vermont Business Magazine Vermont weekly unemployment claims for the week ending July 19, 2025, remain at seasonally low levels after a spike in late June (648). New claims were 220 last week, up 1 claim from the week before and down 18 from last year at this time. Claims, which tend to be lowest in the summer, were 181 at the end of September 2024.
In Vermont for the weekly report, the Service industry accounted for the most claims last week with 59%, up 4 points from the previous week. Construction was 6%, up 3 points. Manufacturing accounted for 9% of claims, down 9 points.
For the week, Vermont total unemployment insurance claims were 2,774 (down 222 for the week and up 212 from this time last year).
The Vermont Unemployment Trust Fund is well capitalized. As of the most recent data, there was $322.4 million in the Trust Fund (as claims are paid out on one side, employers are contributing to the fund on the other). The pre-pandemic Trust Fund balance on March 1, 2020, was $506.2 million.
Markets
Meanwhile, the stock market responded favorably to the positive US jobs report in June (see below) despite the passage July 3 of the federal budget adjustment act, which cuts taxes but is expected to also increase the budget deficit.
However, President Trump's on-again off-again tariff policy was again on-again late this week, but with markets shaking off the uncertainty. There are also concerns about tariffs increasing inflation and about the unsettled geopolitical conflicts between Israel and Iran and the continuing invasion of Ukraine by Russia. Inflation rose to 2.7% in the mid-July report.
On the other hand, the Treasury recorded an unexpected surplus as tariff receipts boosted its coffers.
The S&P, which most closely tracks the overall economy, reached a historic peak Thursday and was up again on Friday (July 25, 2025) on strong earnings to another record by midday at 6,379. The Dow, which peaked at over 45,000 in December, was also up Friday to 44,742. While the volatile NASDAQ, which also peaked on Thursday, was up again to 21,118 Friday.
Year-to-date 2025, the S&P is up 8.6%, after being up 25.7% for all of 2024, up 21.9% in 2023 and up 94.3% over the last 5 years (18.9% per annum). The Dow is up 5.3% YTD and up 66.2% over the last 5 years (13.2% per annum). NASDAQ is up 9.5% YTD and up 96.9% over 5 years (19.4% per annum)
Labor Report
In the week ending July 19, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 217,000, a decrease of 4,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 221,000, according to the US DOL. The 4-week moving average was 224,500, a decrease of 5,000 from the previous week's unrevised average of 229,500.
Household Survey Data
Both the unemployment rate, at 4.1 percent (down one-tenth), and the number of unemployed people, at 7.0 million, changed little in June. The unemployment rate has remained in a narrow range of 4.0 percent to 4.2 percent since May 2024.
Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rate for Blacks (6.8 percent) increased in June, while the rates for adult women (3.6 percent) and Whites (3.6 percent) decreased. The jobless rates for adult men (3.9 percent), teenagers (14.4 percent), Asians (3.5 percent), and Hispanics (4.8 percent) showed little or no change over the month.
In June, the number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) increased by 190,000 to 1.6 million, largely offsetting a decrease in the prior month. The long-term unemployed accounted for 23.3 percent of all unemployed people.
The labor force participation rate changed little at 62.3 percent in June, and the employment-population ratio held at 59.7 percent.
The number of people employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.5 million, changed little in June. These individuals would have preferred full-time employment but were working part time because their hours had been reduced or they were unable to find full-time jobs.
The number of people not in the labor force who currently want a job was essentially unchanged at 6.0 million in June. These individuals were not counted as unemployed because they were not actively looking for work during the 4 weeks preceding the survey or were unavailable to take a job.
Among those not in the labor force who wanted a job, the number of people marginally attached to the labor force increased by 234,000 in June to 1.8 million. These individuals wanted and were available for work and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months but had not looked for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey. The number of discouraged workers, a subset of the marginally attached who believed that no jobs were available for them, increased by 256,000 in June to 637,000.
Establishment Survey Data
Average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 8 cents, or 0.2 percent, to $36.30 in June. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 3.7 percent. In June, average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees rose by 9 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $31.24.
The average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls edged down by 0.1 hour to 34.2 hours in June. In manufacturing, the average workweek held at 40.1 hours, and overtime was unchanged at 2.9 hours. The average workweek for production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls declined by 0.2 hour to 33.5 hours in June.
Bankruptcy Filings Increase
Meanwhile, total US bankruptcy filings were 276,126 during the first six months of 2025, a 10 percent increase from the 251,069 total filings during the same period a year ago, according to data provided by Epiq AACER, the leading provider of U.S. bankruptcy filing data.
Total individual filings registered an 11 percent increase, as the 260,938 filings during the first half of 2025 were up from the 235,849 filings during the first six months of 2024. Individual chapter 7 filings climbed to 163,219 during the first half of 2025, an increase of 15 percent over the 141,566 chapter 7 filings in the first half of 2024. The 97,125 individual chapter 13s filed in the first six months of 2025 represent a 3 percent increase over the 93,870 filings during the same period in 2024.
“The strong 15 percent increase in individual Chapter 7 bankruptcy filings underscores the growing financial pressure facing American households,” said Michael Hunter, vice president of Epiq AACER. “Elevated interest rates, record-high credit card and household debt, and the resumption of student loan repayments and collections are all contributing factors driving more individuals to seek bankruptcy protection.”
Small Business & Inflation Concerns
Meanwhile, a study from Lido.app released July 3, 2025, examined challenges facing small companies across all 50 states, tracking employment figures, wage shifts, utility expenses, and price jumps between 2020 and 2024 to measure inflation's impact. Vermont finished in the middle of the pack for inflation impact at 25th with a score of 54.99.
North Dakota small businesses are the least impacted by inflation, scoring 86.86 out of 100. Arizona businesses are the most impacted by inflation, with a 28.80 score after gas bills surged by 75.83%. Scores are based on employment figures, wage shifts, utility expenses, and price jumps between 2020 and 2024 to measure inflation's impact.
Vermont’s unemployment rate unchanged at 2.6 percent in June | Vermont Business Magazine
by Timothy McQuiston, Vermont Business Magazine Today, the Vermont Department of Labor reported that the seasonally adjusted statewide unemployment rate for June was 2.6%. This reflects no change from the prior month’s revised estimate. The Labor Force and Employed were both down, offset by a decrease in Unemployed from May. The civilian labor force participation rate was 64.9% in June, a decrease of one-tenth of one percentage point from the prior month’s revised estimate. Vermont has the third lowest jobless rate, behind South (1.8%) and North Dakota (2.5%). Nevada has the highest rate again, tied with California, at 5.4%. Washington DC has the overall highest rate at 5.9%. The national rate is 4.1%.
Compared to June 2024, Vermont was tied for the second lowest rate in the nation (since revised up to 2.3%) with North Dakota at 2.1%. South Dakota had the lowest rate (2.0%), while Nevada and California had the highest rates (5.2%). Washington DC was 5.4%. The comparable US rate in June 2024 was 4.1 percent.
The United States jobless rate in June was 4.1 percent, a decrease of one-tenth of one percentage point from the revised May estimate. The seasonally adjusted Vermont data for June show the Vermont civilian labor force decreased by 591 from the prior month’s revised estimate (see Table 1). The number of employed persons decreased by 434 and the number of unemployed persons decreased by 157. No changes were statistically significant in the seasonally-adjusted series.
The June unemployment rates for Vermont’s 14 counties ranged from 2.2 percent in Addison and Windsor Counties to 2.9 percent in Orleans County (note: county unemployment rates are not seasonally-adjusted – see Table 2). For comparison, the June unadjusted unemployment rate for Vermont was 2.4 percent, an increase of two-tenths of one percentage point from the revised unadjusted May level and an increase of one-tenth of one percentage point from a year ago.
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