by Timothy McQuiston, Vermont Business Magazine Weekly unemployment claims fell last week to a very low level and their lowest levels since mid-August. For the week ending September 7, 2024, new claims were 187, which is down 33 claims from the week before and 35 more from last year.
Meanwhile, unemployment claims and hiring have stalled nationally, and the stock market recovered after stumbling as the Federal Reserve Bank decided not to lower interest rates in early August. The Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated since then that the time has come to cut rates as employment nationwide has slowed.
The Fed will meet again this Wednesday.
In Vermont, the Service industry accounts for the most claims this week with 52%, up from 40%. Manufacturing accounted for 15% of claims, down from 29%.
See tables below.
For the week, total unemployment insurance claims were 1,884 for the week (down 493 for the week and down 493 from this time last year). Meanwhile, the state unemployment rate remains near historic low levels as employment and the labor force have increased (2.1 percent in July 2024).
Vermont has the second lowest jobless rate in the nation. South Dakota is lowest at 2.0 percent and Nevada is highest at 5.4 percent.
The comparable United States rate in August was 4.2%, a decrease of one-tenth of one percentage point from the revised June estimate.
The civilian labor force participation rate in Vermont was 65.7 percent in July, no change from June’s revised estimate.
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According to the US Department of Labor, in the week ending September 7, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 230,000, an increase of 2,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 227,000 to 228,000. The 4-week moving average was 230,750, an increase of 500 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 230,000 to 230,250.
Job growth has softened but layoffs have not increased. Meanwhile, inflation has fallen and corporate profits and the stock markets have rebounded. The Dow Industrial Average closed this week near its historic high set in early September and the S&P 500 and NASDAQ had their best week of the year.
According to Reuters: "The combination of a fairly stable labor market and still-high inflation further diminished the chances of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 50 basis points next Wednesday, when the U.S. central bank is expected to start its long-awaited easing cycle."
The Vermont Unemployment Trust Fund is well capitalized. As of last week, there was $311.1 million in the Trust Fund, down $570,000 for the week (as claims are paid out on one side, employers are contributing to the fund on the other). The pre-pandemic Trust Fund balance on March 1, 2020, was $506.2 million.
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