A Vermont National Guard helicopter flies over Montpelier on July 11, 2023. U.S. Air National Guard photo by Senior Master Sgt. Michael Davis
Experts weigh in on what may be in store for this summer.
by Erika Tally, Community News Service
On July 10, 2023, rivers across much of Vermont surged as days’ worth of heavy rainfall pounded the already saturated ground, and the state experienced its worst flooding event since 1927.
Exactly a year later, the waters spilled over their banks again.
Both events caused over $1 billion in damage, led to widespread evacuations and claimed four lives in total.
As the effects of climate change continue to intensify summer weather in Vermont, climate experts are analyzing data patterns and prediction models to determine what events residents should be prepared for.
According to the Vermont Climate Assessment, the state’s average temperature has increased by almost 2 degrees Fahrenheit since 1900, with most of the increase occurring more recently between 1991 and 2020.
During the same timespan, the average annual precipitation in Vermont has increased by 21 percent, the study found. In 1940, for instance, the National Weather Service counted four days that the state recleived at least one inch of precipitation. By 2021, that number had increased to 6.5 days per year.
Seth Kutikoff, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Burlington, said it is normal for Vermont to have variable precipitation and that most summers do have some localized extremes. But he said warmer seasonal temperatures, driven by climate change, may be exacerbating these extremes.
“Precipitation, due to the atmosphere’s ability to hold more moisture in a hotter climate, can therefore be more intense; thus, heavy precipitation extremes like those we have had in recent summers are influenced by climate change to some degree,” he said.
The trend was evident during the July 2023 floods, when 3 to 9 inches of rain fell across the state in just 48 hours. The highest rainfall total was measured in Calais, which accumulated 9.2 inches.
The pendulum has also swung in the other direction. Last year, Vermont experienced the driest August on record since at least 1895, according to the National Integrated Drought Information System.
By mid-September 2025, the U.S. Drought Monitor reported that the entire state was under drought conditions, with 78 percent in severe drought.
The conditions led to extremely low water levels in Lake Champlain, depleted groundwater supplies, and significantly decreased Vermont’s crop yield. A survey conducted by the Vermont Agency of Agriculture, Food and Markets of 209 farmers found that nearly 82,000 acres were affected, resulting in more than $18 million in losses.
According to Kutikoff, it’s not uncommon for drought conditions to develop quickly, even following periods of increased precipitation.
“The drought in 2025 occurred following a wet spring, happening quickly enough that it is called a flash drought. An intensely warm and dry period during the summer supports the development of drought conditions within weeks due to a feedback loop of decreasing soil moisture and lack of rainfall,” Kutikoff said.
While it may be hard to predict when extreme weather events may take place, Vermont’s historical weather data may provide some clues. Kutikoff said that a drought could form in the Upper Valley, as that area is currently seeing “abnormally dry” conditions.
Map showing El Niño’s typical influence on Atlantic and Pacific hurricane seasons. Courtesy NOAA
However, he said that Vermont is more likely to see extreme rainfall and flooding than a drought this summer, based on the current seasonal precipitation outlook.
Vermont’s seasonal weather predictions also differ from those of other regions in the United States, largely due to its unique topography.
Lesley-Ann L. Dupigny-Giroux is a professor of climatology at the University of Vermont and has been the Vermont state climatologist since 1997. She said the state’s terrain can affect weather patterns.
“This includes the orientation of the mountains and valleys and the resulting complexity of how the air moves, stagnates, and localized storm systems occur over very short distances,” she said.
Meteorologists across the country are predicting extreme weather this summer due to El Niño, a climate pattern that has developed in the Pacific Ocean. But scientists say Vermont may fare better than other parts of the U.S.
Under regular conditions, trade winds in the Pacific blow west across the equator, moving warm water from South America to Asia. During El Niño, however, the winds are weakened and push warm water toward the U.S. West Coast.
The pattern will likely create fewer tropical storms in the Atlantic Ocean, which indirectly affects Vermont weather, according to Kutikoff at the weather service. He said during past El Niño summers, rainfall in Vermont has been variable, and weather stations in Burlington and St. Johnsbury have recorded average to slightly below normal temperatures.
The Southeast, however, is likely to see more rain and a higher flood risk, while parts of the West Coast are preparing for a dry, more intense wildfire season.
“The closer you are to the action center, the more pronounced the impacts will be,” Dupigny-Giroux said. “Vermont’s location in the Northeastern quadrant of North America means that El Niño impacts on its weather and climate are very much less than would be the case for states such as California, Texas and Florida.”
While Vermont summer weather can be unpredictable, Mark Bosma, public information officer for Vermont Emergency Management, said the state has methods in place to monitor the forecast and appropriately prepare the state’s response.
Bosma says that when extreme weather events are approaching, Vermont Emergency Management works closely with the National Weather Service to monitor the conditions and increases its available response personnel when necessary.
He recommended that residents sign up for the state’s emergency notifications through Vermont Alert, along with creating an emergency plan with their families.
“It’s basic but important: Keep an eye on the local weather. Watch, listen to or read the local forecast to see what’s happening,” he said.
Via Community News Service, a University of Vermont journalism internship
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