Co-authored by: Kevin Chu, Executive Director of Vermont Futures Project; Tino Rutanhira, Co-Executive Director of Vermont Professionals of Color Network; Seth Bowden, President of Vermont Business Roundtable; Amy Spear, President of Vermont Chamber of Commerce; Miro Weinberger, Executive Chair of Let’s Build Homes; and Cathy Davis, President of Lake Champlain Chamber.
Not someday. Not in some distant future. Now.
We are aging, shrinking, and pricing out our own children, workers, and entrepreneurs. Schools face consolidation, taxes are climbing, and employers struggle to fill jobs. We’re too dependent on federal funding to support spending. A severe housing shortage is driving up prices, slowing economic growth, and leaves young people feeling forced out.
And still, we act as if staying the course is a viable option. It is not. It only gets worse from here if nothing changes.
Last year, the book Abundance by Ezra Klein and Derek Thompson sparked a spirited national conversation that resonated deeply here. Vermonters began asking a fundamental question: What if our greatest challenges—from workforce and housing shortages to the rising cost of living—are not inevitable, but are the predictable results of civic design and outdated systems we have power to change collectively?
Vermont embraced an Abundance Agenda - a set of aspirations for thriving communities, healthy environments, and economic opportunity for all, achievable through growth. Most Vermonters support more housing and population growth, and policymakers signaled an intent to follow the will of the people. However, intentions do not house families, lower taxes, fill classrooms, staff hospitals, or make life more affordable. Outcomes do. And right now, tangible outcomes are coming far too slowly or, in many parts of the state, not at all.
The Cost of Stagnation and Scarcity
For decades, Vermont has treated growth as a threat to mitigate rather than the lifeblood of a healthy society. We are living through the consequences of that mindset, and it hits marginalized communities hardest. When housing vacancy rates hover at 1-2%, affordability becomes a mathematical impossibility. True equity requires expanding supply rather than bitterly fighting over the crumbs of a shrinking pie. Otherwise, people lose hope and search for opportunities elsewhere. This is already happening. Vermont experienced the largest percent decrease in population last year, and it is the only state losing population from both natural change and net migration.
The data are clear: Over the next decade, Vermont must add roughly 13,500 workers annually just to maintain economic stability, and 7,500 new homes are needed annually to meet demand but only about 2,500 are permitted each year. When we fail to build, we aren't "preserving" Vermont. We are pricing out multi-generational families, working-class people who want to live here, and Black, Indigenous, and People of Color who represent our state’s fastest-growing demographic. Saying no to growth denies depopulated rural areas the chance to revitalize their communities.
Without growth, we cannot sustain education, healthcare, childcare, businesses, infrastructure, or the public services that many Vermonters rely on. A shrinking tax base concentrates economic pressure on fewer people, creating a vicious cycle that will erode even the most resilient communities.
It doesn’t have to be this way. We can choose a different path forward.
From Roadmap to Results
The planning is done. Between the Vermont Futures Project’s Economic Action Plan and the Vermont Business Roundtable’s Systems Innovation Framework, we have the data-informed roadmaps. We know where the hurdles are: a regulatory system that prizes "no" over "how," and a fiscal trajectory where spending outpaces tax base growth, both of which are exacerbated by the harmful consequences of unfunded mandates adding layers to an already inefficient system.
Process continues to overshadow results. For many of the issues we face, the time for policy exploration has passed. It is time for outcomes, and this should be the focus for future policymakers. An Abundance Agenda requires four immediate shifts:
- Regulatory Modernization: Move from a culture of "permission" to a culture of "production." If a project meets established economic, environmental, and social goals, it should be approved in months, not years. Start with “yes” as the default.
- Fiscal Stewardship: Align our budget with economic reality. Vermont cannot tax its way out of a shrinking population and a constrained economy. Families and businesses need a predictable environment that allows them to plan, invest, stay, and grow.
- Intentional Growth: Actively recruit and retain a diverse, working-age population. Growth is not a threat to Vermont’s future. Growth funds our schools, supports our healthcare system and sustains our communities benefiting the people already here.
- Accountability: Ensure enacted policies achieve their goals. If the goal is housing, did we build the homes? If the goal is affordability, did we bring costs down sustainably? If the goal is growth, did young people actually choose Vermont and build lives here? Revisit system design and policies if they fail to produce tangible results.
Embed these core principles into policy and decision-making processes. A functioning democracy is based on a diversity of ideas and perspectives. Use Abundance as a lens through which ideas can be evaluated: Does this measure make it easier to call Vermont home? Does it create a benefit for the next generation? Does it reduce the friction between an idea and its execution?
What Comes Next
Today, our organizations—representing thousands of employers, workers, and their communities—stand together to say: Data is not destiny. Vermont’s future is a choice. Let’s choose abundance because Vermonters can no longer afford to choose scarcity. Here’s how you can help.
To the business community: You have firsthand experience with the downstream impacts of public policy. You know where there’s friction in the system and can identify small changes that might yield large returns. Step forward and share that knowledge. Your insights are crucial to modernizing our rules, regulations, and system design, and restoring Vermont’s competitiveness to build an economy where everyone can thrive.
To policymakers: We stand ready to be your partners. The data is clear, our organizations are aligned, and the roadmap is ready. We don’t need endless studies; we need your help to produce results. As the election cycle approaches, remember that accountability is measured by tangible outcomes for Vermonters, not intentions.
To our fellow Vermonters: Say "yes" to the possibilities in your own communities. Welcome new housing, support the local employers who anchor our towns, and champion a growing tax base over rising tax rates. But wanting change is not enough; you must participate to make it happen. Engage with your elected officials, serve on a local board, and turn out to vote for the future you want to see.
Finally, we must all reshape the narrative about Vermont. Naming challenges without offering solutions is self-sabotaging. If young people only hear about the economic hardships, they will leave. Share the stories of why you love living and working here and why others should consider Vermont too. Your voice has the power to break the vicious cycle of scarcity, and to build a culture of possibility. Be a champion for abundance. Speak openly about how growth can improve well-being and why you support it.
Growth is not a threat to Vermont; growth is what will save it.