by Chris Graff
It’s been 64 years since Vermonters have ousted an incumbent governor, which has led to the belief it’s impossible. This year, however, the ingredients may be in place to do so.
Phil Scott is the nation’s most popular governor and after winning re-election in 2024 with an astounding 73 percent of the vote he would appear to be unbeatable. At the end of the day, though, he has an “R” next to his name; he is a Republican in the most Democratic state in the nation.
Scott has worked hard to ensure he is not linked to the national Republicans or to the Trump administration.
But this year is unlike any other.
Across the country, up and down the ballot, Republicans are getting hammered. This past week saw large Democratic victories in Wisconsin for the Supreme Court and the mayor’s office in Waukesha, a conservative suburb outside Milwaukee. Democrats have flipped a Texas state Senate district and won a state House district that includes Mar-a-Lago. They did far better than expected in a special election in Georgia.
“In rural, urban, red, blue, Democrats have outperformed everywhere,” Democratic consultant Jared Leopold told The Associated Press.
The electorate is fired up. Voters are saying “I will crawl through broken glass to send a message to Trump that he is ruining the country,” said Morris Katz, a consultant to New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani. “And actually, across the country you’re seeing an expression that we need fundamental change.”
Nothing is more powerful in politics than the theme “It’s Time For A Change.” It was that message that led to Democrat Phil Hoff’s 1962 ouster of Republican Gov. F. Ray Keyser, the last time an incumbent governor was defeated in Vermont.
Two Democrats – Aly Richards and Amanda Janoo – are seeking their party nomination to challenge Scott in November, hoping the change message and the political unrest will lead to victory.
“I know Vermonters want change, not more of the same,” says Richards.
“I refuse to accept that collapse is inevitable or the best a governor can do is manage decline,” says Janoo.
For both this is their first bid at statewide office. They both start with low name recognition although Richards, as the CEO of Let’s Grow Kids, built a grassroots network that will help jumpstart her campaign.
Scott, after 10 years in office, may also be facing voter fatigue. In discussing his decision not to seek re-election after 10 years, then-Gov. Jim Douglas said he wanted to make sure he did not overstay his welcome, that other governors had remained in office one term too many.
On a number of issues – like health care, housing, homelessness, the economy, education financing, and climate – Scott has been unable to pass comprehensive solutions. While the Democrats have held majorities and at times super-majorities in the Legislature during his tenure, many voters don’t understand the dynamics or nuances. They just want things to be better. And the governor is an easy target.
It is a long way to November and Scott has more than history on his side. Vermont voters, especially in the race for governor, tend to vote for the person rather than the party, and character matters most of all.
For 10 years Vermonters, in increasing numbers, have chosen Scott. His total share of the vote has climbed from 53% in 2016 to 73% in 2024. It will take a lot to persuade voters to change their vote.
But if it is going to happen this is the year for it.
Chris Graff is the former Vermont AP bureau chief; former contributing editor to Vermont Business; author of Dateline Vermont; former host of Vermont This Week. He has covered Vermont politics for more than 50 years.
Vermont Business Magazine