Sluggish Personal Income Tax results drag down General Fund revenues

Sluggish Personal Income Tax results drag down General Fund revenues

by Timothy McQuiston, Vermont Business Magazine Secretary of Administration Sarah Clark released Vermont’s revenue results for August 2025 today. The Transportation Fund and Education Fund exceeded their respective monthly consensus cash flow target, as adopted by the Emergency Board at its July 2025 meeting, while the General Fund fell short of its target for the month as the vital Personal Income Tax was off by more than 10%. The PI has been reliably near or above targets for several years. Still the General Fund is ahead of targets early this fiscal year (FY26 began July 1, 2025).

While Corporate receipts have been strong, the tourism-related Meals & Rooms, which has a higher target, and Interest are running below projections. The Meals & Rooms Tax receipts go to the General Fund (69%), Education Fund (25%), and Clean Water Fund (6%).

Cumulatively, the state’s General Fund, Transportation Fund, and Education Fund receipts were a combined $238.8 million, -$10.3 million, or -4.1%, lower than the $249.1 million monthly target adopted by the Emergency Board at its July 2025 meeting. 

Total General Fund revenues for August were $146.7 million, -$11.0 million, or -7.0%, below the $157.7 million monthly consensus cash flow target, driven largely by Personal Income Tax receipts that were -$8.8 million, or -10.6% below target. 

Revenues in the Transportation Fund exceeded their $27.9 million August consensus target by $0.2 million, following higher than expected performance in the Motor Vehicle Fees ($0.4 million, or 4.0% above target) and Motor Vehicle Purchase and Use ($0.2 million, or 2.0% above target) categories.

Monthly Education Fund revenues of $64.0 million were $0.5 million, or 0.8%, above their $63.4 million August cash flow target. Underperformance in the Meals and Rooms Tax (-$0.3 million, or -4.9% below target) and Lottery Transfer (-$0.3 million, or -11.0% below target) were offset by revenues in the Sales and Use tax, which was $0.9 million or 1.9% above target. 

According to Secretary Clark: “Though General Fund revenues missed their monthly target, on a cumulative basis, the two-month total for revenues remains positive. It is premature to draw any conclusions about annual revenue performance.”

All three major funds are near their targets so far this fiscal year, with the General Fund ahead 1.35%, the Education Fund 1.24% ahead and the Transportation Fund -0.26 behind.

Sluggish Personal Income Tax results drag down General Fund revenuesVermont General Fund +5.6%Vermont Transportation Fund +15.9%Vermont Education Fund +8.0%

10.1.2025. Montpelier, VT – Secretary of Administration

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