by Timothy McQuiston, Vermont Business Magazine Vermont weekly unemployment claims for the week ending June 21, 2025, more than doubled last week. New claims were 648, up 343 claims from the week before but down 302 from last year at this time. Claims, which tend to be lowest in the summer, were 181 at the end of September 2024.
In Vermont for the weekly report, the Service industry accounted for the most claims last week with 50%, down 7 points from the previous week. Construction was 2%, unchanged. Manufacturing accounted for 28% of claims, down 20 points.
For the week, Vermont total unemployment insurance claims were 3,028 (up 292 for the week and up 100 from this time last year).
The Vermont Unemployment Trust Fund is well capitalized. As of the most recent data, there was $323.3 million in the Trust Fund, down about $1.1 million from the previous week (as claims are paid out on one side, employers are contributing to the fund on the other). The pre-pandemic Trust Fund balance on March 1, 2020, was $506.2 million.
According to the US DOL, in the week ending June 21, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 236,000, a decrease of 10,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 245,000 to 246,000. The 4-week moving average was 245,000, a decrease of 750 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 245,500 to 245,750.
Total US nonfarm payroll employment increased by 139,000 in May, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.2 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported June 5, 2025. Employment continued to trend up in health care, leisure and hospitality, and social assistance. Federal government continued to lose jobs.
The US unemployment rate held at 4.2 percent in May and has remained in a narrow range of 4.0 percent to 4.2 percent since May 2024. The number of unemployed people, at 7.2 million, changed little over the month.
In May, the employment-population ratio declined by 0.3 percentage point to 59.7 percent. The labor force participation rate decreased by 0.2 percentage point to 62.4 percent.
Despite the continuing attack by Israel on Iran, and the counter-attack, and Concerns remain over the budget Congress is considering, which likely would increase the national debt substantially, and higher-than-expected inflation report, stocks had a very strong week, with the S&P and NASDAQ reaching new highs.
The S&P, which most closely tracks the overall economy, reached a new peak Friday to 6,173.07 (peaked 6,144 in February 2025). The Dow, which peaked at over 45,000 in December, finished the week at 43,819.27, while the volatile NASDAQ, also peaked and finished at 20,273.46.
Vermont’s unemployment rate unchanged at 2.6 percent in May
The Vermont Department of Labor on June 24, 2025, reported that the seasonally adjusted statewide unemployment rate for May was 2.6%. This reflects no change from April's revised estimate, and from December 2024, when it was 2.5%. However, the Labor Force and Employment have been losing ground slightly every month this year. Over the last two years, the Labor Force peaked at 357,467 in January 2025, as did the Labor Force at 348,340. The high point in Unemployment was just in April.
The preliminary estimates for April showed an unemployment rate of 2.7% but the initially reported increase of one-tenth of one percentage point disappeared due to the inclusion of more data. The civilian labor force participation rate was 65.0 percent in May, a decrease of one-tenth of one percentage point from the prior month’s revised estimate.
Vermont has the third lowest jobless rate in the nation, behind South (1.8%) and North Dakota (2.5%). Nevada continues to have the highest rate, at 5.5%.
The comparable United States rate in May was 4.2 percent, no change from the revised April estimate. The seasonally adjusted Vermont data for May show the Vermont civilian labor force decreased by 494 from the prior month’s revised estimate (see Table 1). The number of employed persons decreased by 343 and the number of unemployed persons decreased by 151. No changes were statistically significant in the seasonally adjusted series.
"Whether you're a business looking to fill open positions or a job seeker exploring training and employment opportunities, the Vermont Department of Labor’s Workforce Development Division is here to help. Learn more at: https://labor.vermont.gov/workforce-development and https://labor.vermont.gov/child-labor.”
The May unemployment rates for Vermont’s 14 counties ranged from 1.8 percent in Addison and Chittenden Counties to 2.9 percent in Orleans County (note: county unemployment rates are not seasonally-adjusted – see Table 2). For comparison, the May unadjusted unemployment rate for Vermont was 2.2 percent, a decrease of five-tenths of one percentage point from the revised unadjusted April level and an increase of two-tenths of one percentage point from a year ago.
The seasonally adjusted data for May reported an increase of 900 jobs from the revised April data. There was no change between the preliminary and the revised April estimates due to the inclusion of more data. The seasonally adjusted over-the-month changes in May varied at the industry level. The industries with a notable increase were Administrative & Waste Services (+800 jobs or +5.7%), Other Services (+300 jobs or +2.9%), and Accommodation & Food Services (+300 jobs or +1.0%). The industries with a notable decrease were Construction (-300 jobs or -1.9%), Private Educational Services (-200 jobs or -1.5%), and Durable Manufacturing (-200 jobs or -1.3%).
The preliminary ‘not-seasonally-adjusted’ jobs estimates for May showed an increase of 100 jobs when compared to the revised April numbers. As with the seasonally adjusted data, this over-the-month change is from the revised April numbers which experienced a decrease of 300 jobs from the preliminary estimates. The broader economic picture can be seen by focusing on the over-the-year changes in this data series. As detailed in the preliminary not-seasonally-adjusted May data, Total Private industries increased by 4,500 jobs (+1.8%) over the year and Government (including public education) employment decreased by 1,600 jobs (-2.8%) in the past year.
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