by Timothy McQuiston, Vermont Business Magazine The Vermont General Fund, Transportation Fund and Education Fund all exceeded their monthly consensus cash flow targets for April 2025, as corresponding to the annual consensus forecast update adopted by the Emergency Board at its January 2025 meeting. The Personal Income Tax, the most important revenue source, was more than 26% over expectations. Because of tax filing, payment and refunds this time of year, the PI can show wide swings in its results. However, the PI is 8% ahead for year, or up nearly $90 million with two months left in the fiscal year.
Secretary of Administration Sarah Clark released Vermont’s tax revenue results today.
Receipts for the state's three Major Funds were a combined $538.9 million, exceeding the $470.9 million monthly consensus target by $68 million, or 14.4%.
Total General Fund revenues for April were $444.3 million, $65.1 million, or 17.2%, greater than the $379.1 million monthly consensus cash flow target. A combined -$8.2 million underperformance by the Meals and Rooms Tax, Insurance Tax, Estate Tax, and Other category offset the $73.3 million of cumulative gains above target by all other revenue sources.
It was notable that the underperformance in the Estate Tax was again tied to that source reaching its statutory maximum level of $28.875 million in receipts for the 2025 fiscal year back in January.
The consumption taxes are ahead of targets for the year, with the Sales Tax having a good month. Meals & Rooms, which to some extent tracks tourism activity (along with Lottery sales, which are down for the month and year), was down for April, but is still ahead for the year-to-date.
Revenues in the Transportation Fund exceeded their $26.8 million April consensus target by $0.2 million, or 0.8%, yielding $27.0 million in total. A combined $0.3 million above target performance by the Gasoline Tax, Motor Vehicle Purchase and Use Tax, and Other Fees category was offset by a combined -$0.1 million underperformance by the Diesel Tax and Motor Vehicle Fees.
Monthly Education Fund revenues of $67.7 million were $2.6 million, or 4.1%, greater than their April $65.0 million cash flow target. A $3.2 million above target performance by the Sales and Use Tax was offset by a cumulative -$0.6 million underperformance by all other sources.
According to Secretary Clark: “Once again cumulative General Fund receipts finished May well above consensus expectations leaving little doubt the State will end fiscal year 2025 with a surplus. The Education Fund remains on track to exceed its consensus fiscal year-end target, but by a substantially smaller margin. At this point, it is receipts in the Transportation Fund that are greatest risk of not achieving consensus forecast expectations for fiscal year 2025 as the threat of potential tariffs continue to influence consumer spending and travel during the start of the summer tourism season.”
6.5.2025. Montpelier, VT – Secretary of Administration
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