Vermont unemployment rate holds at 2.6% in February

by Timothy McQuiston, Vermont Business Magazine The Vermont Department of Labor today reported that the seasonally adjusted statewide unemployment rate for February was 2.6 percent. This reflects no change from the prior month’s revised estimate. The three major indices were slightly worse from last month, as the Labor Force and Employed fell and Unemployed increased. Vermont is still tied for the second lowest jobless rate in the nation with North Dakota. South Dakota is lowest at 1.9%. Nevada is highest at 5.8%.

The Vermont civilian labor force participation rate was 65.5 percent in February, no change from the prior month’s revised estimate.

The comparable United States rate in February was 4.1 percent, an increase of one-tenth of one percentage point from the revised January estimate. 

SEE TABLES BELOW

Labor Commissioner Michael Harrington said: “Vermont’s unemployment rate remained unchanged for February. Based on the prior month’s data, Vermont was tied for the second lowest rate in the nation, and the Burlington-South Burlington metropolitan area recorded the fifth lowest unemployment rate in the country when compared to all other metropolitan areas. A key factor in Vermont’s consistently low unemployment rate is the state’s diverse industry mix.

"April is Career Exploration Month, and it is still a job seeker’s market out there. The Department of Labor’s Workforce Development Team is gearing up for the spring hiring season with a number of events between now and July. So, if you’re looking for help finding an amazing employment opportunity, or seeking high-quality talent, connect with our local workforce team today at https://labor.vermont.gov.”

The seasonally adjusted Vermont data for February show the Vermont civilian labor force decreased by 278 from the prior month’s revised estimate (see Table 1). The number of employed persons decreased by 388 and the number of unemployed persons increased by 110. None of the changes were statistically significant in the seasonally adjusted series.

The February unemployment rates for Vermont’s 14 counties ranged from 2.3 percent in Chittenden County to 5.7 percent in Orleans County (note: county unemployment rates are not seasonally-adjusted – see Table 2). For comparison, the February unadjusted unemployment rate for Vermont was 3.1 percent, an increase of one-tenth of one percentage point from the revised unadjusted January level and an increase of seven-tenths of one percentage point from a year ago.

BLS note on LAUS geography and data changes in 2025: https://www.bls.gov/lau/geographyand-data-changes-in-2025.htm

Seasonally-Adjusted (Table 3)

The seasonally adjusted data for February reported an increase of 400 jobs from the revised January data. There was an increase of 300 jobs between the preliminary and the revised January estimates due to the inclusion of more data. The seasonally adjusted over-the-month changes in February varied at the industry level. The industries with a notable increase were: State Government (+500 jobs or +2.7%), Non-Durable Manufacturing (+200 jobs or +1.8%), and Administrative & Waste Services (+200 jobs or +1.5%). The industries with a notable decrease were: Construction (-200 jobs or -1.2%) and Accommodation & Food Services (-300 jobs or -1.0%).

Not-Seasonally-Adjusted (Table 4)

The preliminary ‘not-seasonally-adjusted’ jobs estimates for February showed an increase of 2,700 jobs when compared to the revised January numbers. As with the seasonally adjusted data, this over-the-month change is from the revised January numbers which experienced an increase of 300 jobs from the preliminary estimates. The broader economic picture can be seen by focusing on the over-the-year changes in this data series. As detailed in the preliminary not-seasonally adjusted February data, Total Private industries decreased by 900 jobs (-0.4%) over the year and Government (including public education) employment increased by 1,100 jobs (+1.9%) in the past year.

Weekly Unemployment Claims

Vermont weekly unemployment claims for the week ending March 22, 2025, fell to their lowest level of the year, after a spike carried them over 600 late last month. New claims were 294, down 103 claims from the week before and are 14 more from last year. Claims, which tend to be lowest in the summer, were 181 at the end of September 2024. 

In Vermont for the weekly report, the Service industry accounted for the most claims last week with 56%, down 5 points. Construction was at 14%, down 2 points. Manufacturing accounted for 13% of claims, up 5 points. 

For the week, Vermont total unemployment insurance claims were 3,904 for the week (down 293 for the week and up 534 from this time last year). 

Meanwhile the Vermont Unemployment Trust Fund is well capitalized. As of the most recent data, there was $296.7 million in the Trust Fund, down about $1.9 million (as claims are paid out on one side, employers are contributing to the fund on the other). The pre-pandemic Trust Fund balance on March 1, 2020, was $506.2 million.

Meanwhile nationally, stocks fell steeply again this week, with CNBC reporting that shares were down steeply and broadly Friday, pressured by growing uncertainty on U.S. trade policy as well as a more grim outlook on inflation. Shares of several technology giants dropped, putting pressure on the broader market. Google-parent Alphabet and Amazon lost more than 3% each, while Microsoft and Meta each declined by about 2%.

USDOL

The USDOL reported March 27, 2025, that for the week ending March 22, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 224,000, a decrease of 1,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 2,000 from 223,000 to 225,000. The 4-week moving average was 224,000, a decrease of 4,750 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 1,750 from 227,000 to 228,750.

For the nation, nonfarm payrolls increased by a seasonally adjusted 151,000 for February, better than the downwardly revised 125,000 in January but less than the 170,000 consensus forecast. 

US JOB OPENINGS AND LABOR TURNOVER – FEBRUARY 2025

The number of job openings was little changed at 7.6 million in February, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month, hires and total separations held at 5.4 million and 5.3 million, respectively. Within separations, quits (3.2 million) and layoffs and discharges (1.8 million) changed little.

Job Openings

The number of job openings was little changed at 7.6 million in February but was down by 877,000 over the year. The job openings rate, at 4.5 percent, changed little over the month. The number of job openings decreased in finance and insurance (-80,000).

Hires

In February, the number and rate of hires were unchanged at 5.4 million and 3.4 percent, respectively. The number of hires was little changed in all industries in February.

Separations

The number and rate of total separations in February were unchanged at 5.3 million and 3.3 percent, respectively. Total separations increased in state and local government education (+32,000) and in federal government (+11,000).

In February, the number of quits was little changed at 3.2 million but was down by 273,000 over the year. Over the month, the quits rate was unchanged at 2.0 percent. Quits increased in state and local government education (+28,000).

In February, the number of layoffs and discharges changed little at 1.8 million. The layoffs and discharges rate was unchanged at 1.1 percent. Layoffs and discharges increased in retail trade (+67,000), real estate and rental and leasing (+24,000), and federal government (+18,000). Layoffs and discharges decreased in transportation, warehousing, and utilities (-42,000).

The number of other separations decreased 67,000 to 275,000 in February. 

January 2025 Revisions

The number of job openings for January was revised up by 22,000 to 7.8 million, the number of hires was revised down by 22,000 to 5.4 million, and the number of total separations was revised up by 20,000 to 5.3 million. Within separations, the number of quits was revised down by 10,000 to 3.3 million, and the number of layoffs and discharges was revised up by 39,000 to 1.7 million. 

Employees across the massive U.S. Department of Health and Human Services began receiving notices of dismissal on April 1 in a major overhaul expected to ultimately lay off up to 10,000 people. According to CNBC, the notices come just days after President Donald Trump moved to strip workers of their collective bargaining rights at HHS and other agencies throughout the government.

Last Modified Date: March 28, 2025

The Vermont Unemployment and Jobs Report for March is scheduled to be released on Friday, April 18, 2025, at 10:00 a.m.

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