by Timothy McQuiston, Vermont Business Magazine Weekly unemployment claims remained relatively high last week but are down after the New Year's spike. For the week ending January 11, 2025, new claims were 615, up 54 claims from the week before and are 6 more from last year. The holiday season brings wild swings in claims as temporary workers are hired and then laid off. Claims were 181 at the end of September.
For the month of December the US jobs report beat expectations, while the US unemployment rate fell one-tenth to 4.1% for December. The Vermont report will not be released until January 28.
Acting US Secretary of Labor Julie Su issued the following statement January 10, 2025, on the December 2024 Employment Situation report:
“Today, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the American economy added 256,000 jobs in December, well above market expectations and reflecting a robust and resilient labor market. With unemployment ticking down to 4.1 percent and the three-month average of payroll employment gains at 170,000, this report underscores the strength of our economy as we close out 2024.
The stock market has rebounded from its recent slump and has returned to pre-election growth, though not quite back to the post-election spike. As of Friday morning, the Dow was up about 350 points to 43,500 (peaked in December), the S&P 500 (peaked in November) was up about 50 to 5,587 and the NASDAQ (peaked in December) was up 265 to 19,605.
There have been mixed signals this week on whether there will be no or several Fed interest rate cuts this year. Mortgage rates, for instance, have remained high despite the Fed rate cuts last fall and in December.
As a reminder, the Vermont Department of Labor has announced an increase to the State’s minimum wage, which began January 1, 2025. The State’s minimum wage will increase from $13.67 to $14.01 per hour - an increase of $0.34.
This annual adjustment also impacts the minimum wage for tipped employees. The “Basic Tipped Wage Rate” for service, or “tipped employees,” equals 50% of the full minimum wage. On January 1, 2025, the tipped minimum wage will increase from $6.84 to $7.01 per hour.
The State’s tipped minimum wage law allows employers to pay a lower hourly rate, as long as the employee receives tips equal to, or greater to than, the standard minimum wage during a given shift. In cases where the employee does not receive enough in tips during a workweek to equal the standard minimum wage per hour, the employer is required to pay the difference in order to ensure the tipped wage employee is compensated at the non-tipped minimum wage amount.
In Vermont for the weekly report, the Construction industry accounted for the most claims last week with 33%, up 2 points. Manufacturing accounted for 19% of claims, up from 16%. Service claims fell 7 points to 31%.
See more tables below.
For the week, total unemployment insurance claims were 4,604 for the week (up 321 for the week and up 255 from this time last year). Meanwhile, the state unemployment rate remains tied for second lowest in the nation even as it rose one-tenth in November, as unemployment grew modestly (2.4 percent in November 2024).
For the United States, in the week ending January 11, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 217,000, an increase of 14,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 2,000 from 201,000 to 203,000. The 4-week moving average was 212,750, a decrease of 750 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 500 from 213,000 to 213,500.
The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending January 4 was 1,859,000, a decrease of 18,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up 10,000 from 1,867,000 to 1,877,000. The 4 -week moving average was 1,866,750, a decrease of 1,250 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 2,500 from 1,865,500 to 1,868,000.
In December Public Assets Insitute reported, Vermont's personal income was up 6 percent in 2023, which is the fastest median rate increase in the nation. PI grew by 3 percent in the US and only four states saw income drop: Alabama, Minnesota, North Dakoka and Iowa.
Meanwhile, PAI recently released its State of Working Vermont 2024 report, which concluded that: "More than half of single adults in Vermont, with kids or without, cannot afford to meet their basic needs. Even many two-earner households fall short. Meanwhile, the wealthiest Vermonters have over $1 million left annually after covering their needs.
"The state budget reflects our priorities. Healthcare and pre-K-through-12 public education each account for about a third of the total state budget. But the other policies and programs that help make Vermont affordable—like cash assistance, food programs, childcare subsidies, and housing support—together account for only 10 percent. That means reasonable, targeted investments in these areas can make a big, immediate difference to Vermonters struggling to afford their basic needs.
"Our laws enshrine the promises we’ve made to each other: that everyone has quality healthcare, housing, dignified work, education, food, social security, and a healthy environment. We have the resources to deliver on these promises and make Vermont a state that is both affordable and equitable for everyone who lives here."
"The November jobs report shows an expected rebound in hiring and no major surprises,” said Eric Merlis, managing director and co-head of global markets at Citizens. “The slight uptick in the unemployment rate and dip in the participation rate should convince the Fed to continue its gradual easing path at the December meeting.”
Meanwhile the Vermont Unemployment Trust Fund is well capitalized. As of the most recent data, there was $307 million in the Trust Fund, down about $2 million (as claims are paid out on one side, employers are contributing to the fund on the other). The pre-pandemic Trust Fund balance on March 1, 2020, was $506.2 million.
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