by Timothy McQuiston, Vermont Business Magazine General Fund tax revenues came up short of expectations for the month of November as personal income revenue was nearly 9 percent below its target. Personal income is the most important revenue source and is still ahead of year-to-date expectations. Meanwhile, corporate income was well above expectations. And the consumption taxes represented by rooms & meals and sales taxes finished just above expectations for the month. Rooms & meals, which largely tracks tourism, has relatively high expectations, which have been a little behind – about $1 million – for the year.
The Education (+2 percent) and Transportation Funds (+5.11 percent) exceeded their respective targets. Transportation in particular had a good month and now exceeds its year-to-date target, if only just.
“General Fund receipts were -$3.38 million, or -3.42%, below the consensus cash flow target for the month, while Education Fund and Transportation Fund revenues were above expectations,” stated Secretary Susanne Young.
General Fund revenues collected for the month totaled $95.49 million, or -$3.38 million below the monthly consensus revenue target, which is tied to the annual consensus revenue forecast adopted by the Emergency Board on July 29, 2019. These results, however, were affected by the timing of the Thanksgiving holiday break on the last business days of November and receipts from those two days will be reflected in December receipts. Year to date, General Fund revenues exceed their target by $10.29 million, or 1.73%.
Secretary Young noted, “The better than expected year to date revenue totals are encouraging as we continue to work to close a substantial budget gap between expected revenues and expenditures in the FY21 budget. We must continue to invest in programs and initiatives that attract and retain the people we need to rebuild our workforce and strengthen our economy so these positive revenue trends continue and we change the trajectory of projected funding gaps in the future.”
The Transportation Fund was $1.07 million, or 5.11%, above expectations for the month, bringing in $21.96 million. All sources within the Transportation Fund performed above expectations this month. Year-to-date, the Transportation Fund is essentially on target; $0.03 million, or 0.03% above the consensus forecast.
The Education Fund was $0.87 million, or 2.00%, above its monthly target, having collected $44.18 million for the month. All sources within the Education Fund performed above expectations. Year-to-date, the Education Fund is $1.38 million, or 0.59%, above consensus forecast.
Note: Adjusting for redirection of certain health care-related taxes under Act 6 of 2019 and redistribution of the meals and rooms tax under Act 76 of 2019, for comparison purposes only, in the accompanying General Fund tables, the year-to-date revenues for November 2019 (FY 2020) represent changes of +1.16%, -0.75%, and +6.91% for the General Fund, Transportation Fund, and Education Fund, respectively, from the same period in FY 2019.
