Vermont Business Magazine The Vermont Department of Labor released October 2019 unemployment rate today. According to household data, the seasonally-adjusted statewide unemployment rate for October was 2.2 percent. This reflects no change from the revised September rate. However, all the major data points were negative, with the Labor Force and Employed falling and the number of Unemployed increasing.
The Labor Force is also down year-to-year, while the Employed and Unemployed data showed improvement year-to-year. The Labor Force is the denominator in the calculations, so when it goes down it evens out the rate, in this case, despite the labor situation worsening for the month.
The seasonally-adjusted Vermont data for October show the Vermont civilian labor force decreased by 1,446 from the prior month’s revised estimate. The number of employed persons decreased by 1,576 and the number of unemployed persons increased by 130. The changes to the labor force and the number of employed persons were statistically significant in the seasonally-adjusted series.
The Vermont unemployment rate again is the lowest in the nation. New Hampshire remained tied for fourth lowest at 2.6 percent.
By industry, the biggest labor decline in Vermont was in government, for both month-to-month and year-to-year, with nearly all coming in local (schools). The biggest gains were in Construction (month-to-month) and Business Services (year-to-year) categories.
The comparable United States rate in October was 3.6 percent, which was an increase of one-tenth of one-percentage point from the revised September estimate.
“Demographics continue to be Vermont’s biggest challenge. This month’s Jobs Report shows a continuation of the unprecedented low unemployment rate, prolonging the struggle for employers. Because of this, it is critical for the Department of Labor to engage with employers and job-seekers early to be able to link skill with need. One way we do this is through our State Registered Apprenticeship Program. There are currently more than 28 registered apprenticeship programs involving more than 350 employers in Vermont, and over the past year 2,000 apprentices were enrolled across a variety of these programs. If you are an employer with open positions, please consider one of our existing programs or creating your own registered apprenticeship program, and if you are looking for work, there is no better time than now to expand your skill base,” said Michael Harrington, Acting Labor Commissioner.
November is Registered Apprenticeship Month in Vermont and the Department of Labor is looking for partners to assist in advancing our workforce. Speak to someone directly by calling 888-807-7072 or email [email protected] for more information.
The October unemployment rates for Vermont’s 17 labor market areas ranged from 1.3 percent in White River Junction and Burlington-South Burlington to 2.6 percent in Derby (note: local labor market area unemployment rates are not seasonally-adjusted). For comparison, the October unadjusted unemployment rate for Vermont was 1.6 percent which a decrease of six-tenths of one percentage point from the revised unadjusted September level and a decrease of three-tenths of one percentage point from a year ago.
Not-Seasonally-Adjusted
The preliminary ‘not-seasonally-adjusted’ jobs estimates for October show an increase of 3,200 jobs when compared to the revised September numbers. There was a decrease of 800 jobs between the preliminary and the revised September estimates due to the inclusion of more data.
The monthly increase seen in the October numbers was primarily attributable to private and public education. The broader economic trends can be detected by focusing on the year-to-year changes in this data series.
As detailed in the preliminary ‘not-seasonally-adjusted’ October data, Total Private industries have increased by 2,300 jobs (0.9 percent) and Government (including public education) employment has decreased by 1,800 jobs (-3.0 percent) in the past year.
Seasonally-Adjusted
The seasonally-adjusted data for October reports no change from the revised September data. As with the ‘not-seasonally-adjusted’ data, this over-the-month change is from the revised September numbers which experienced a decrease of 300 jobs from the preliminary estimates. The seasonally-adjusted over-the-month changes in October varied at the sub-sector level.
Those with a notable increase include: Mining & Logging (+100 jobs or +14.3%), Administrative & Waste Services (+300 jobs or +2.3%), and Construction (+300 jobs or +2.1%). Sectors with a notable decrease include: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation (-200 jobs or -3.9%), Real Estate, Rental & Leasing (-100 jobs or -3.3%), and State Government (-500 jobs or -2.5%).
The Unemployment and Jobs Report for November is scheduled to be released on Friday, December 20, 2019 at 10:00 a.m.