by Timothy McQuiston, Vermont Business Magazine Weekly unemployment claims fell last week to their lowest levels since last year. For the week ending July 20, 2024, new claims were 238, which is typical of summer lows. Service claims remain somewhat elevated, but Manufacturing claims are below their usual levels after a spike in June.
The Vermont Department of Labor confirmed to VermontBiz that several manufacturers experienced temporary layoffs and reduced hours in June; they could not say who those employers were. Labor acknowledged it was "a trend" but did not further specify.
The Service industry accounts for the most claims this week with 60% up from 55%. For the week of June 22, Manufacturing accounted for an unusual 12% of claims, down from 22%.
See tables below.
For the week, claims were down 67 for the week and there were 358 fewer than this time last year. Meanwhile, the state unemployment rate remains near historic low levels as employment and the labor force have increased (2.1 percent in June 2024).
Vermont has the second lowest rate in the nation, behind South Dakota (2.0%). Nevada and California (5.2%) have the highest rates.
The comparable United States rate in June was 4.1 percent, an increase of one-tenth of one percentage point from the revised May estimate.
The Vermont civilian labor force participation rate was 65.7 percent in May, an increase of one-tenth of one percentage point from the prior month’s revised estimate.
For new and continuing UI claims, there were a total of 2,562 claims, down 253 from the week before and 701 fewer than last year.
Workers affected by July 2024 flood should apply for unemployment benefits
Nationally for the week ending July 20, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 235,000, a decrease of 10,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 2,000 from 243,000 to 245,000. The 4-week moving average was 235,500, an increase of 250 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 500 from 234,750 to 235,250.
Reuters reports that claims fell more than expected and notes that hiring has been reduced by the Federal Reserve Banks inflation reduction efforts, have been succeeding.
However, Reuters notes that claims are still higher than this time last year, it's taking longer for the average unemployed person to find a job, jobless levels and the unemployment rate are also higher than last year, though they don't expect it to go higher.
For all that, and with inflation "ebbing," the Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates in September.
The Vermont Unemployment Trust Fund is well capitalized. As of last week, there was $304.7 million in the Trust Fund, up $245,000 for the week (as claims are paid out on one side, employers are contributing to the fund on the other). The pre-pandemic Trust Fund balance on March 1, 2020, was $506.2 million.
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