Vermont Business Magazine The state's General Fund, led by the vital personal income tax, exceeded tax revenue expectations for the month of October. However, the two other major funds, Transportation and Education, failed to meet their projections, corresponding to the annual fiscal 2024 consensus forecast as adopted by the Emergency Board at its July 2023 meeting.
Secretary of Administration Kristin Clouser today released Vermont’s revenue results for October 2023. While the PI, continued its recent strength, of the larger sources, only the sales & use (0.02%) and rooms & meals taxes were ahead of expectations (3.17%).
The State’s General Fund, Transportation Fund, and Education Fund receipts were a combined $261.5 million, exceeding the $258.6 million monthly consensus target by $2.8 million, or 1.1%. Year-to-date combined receipts are $25.2 million, 2.5%, above their $1,005.9 million target.
General Fund revenues for October totaled $167.7 million, $5.7 million, or 3.5%, above the $162.0 million monthly consensus cash flow target. Personal Income Tax receipts, Health Care Taxes, Meals and Rooms Taxes and the net Other receipts category surpassed their combined targets by $16.4 million. These positive gains were offset by a -$10.7 million dollar underperformance by the Corporate Income Tax. Year-to-date receipts are $31.4 million, 4.9%, above their $645.4 million target.
Revenues in the Transportation Fund missed their $26.4 million October consensus target on the downside by -$1.3 million, or -4.8%, yielding only $25.1 million. None of the individual revenue categories achieved their consensus monthly targets except for a marginal $0.1 million positive performance by the Other Fees category. Year-to-date receipts are -$4.8 million, -4.7%, below their $103.3 million target.
Monthly Education Fund revenues of $68.6 million were -$1.6 million, -2.3%, below their October $70.2 million cash flow target. The combined $0.7 million above target performance by the Sales & Use Tax, Meals and Rooms Tax and Lottery Transfer were more than offset by a -$2.3 million underperformance by the Motor Vehicle Purchase and Use Tax and Interest Earnings. Year-to-date receipts are -$1.3 million, -0.5%, below their $257.2 million target.
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According to Secretary Clouser: “The mixed results this month reflect the combination of general uncertainty in the economy as a whole and how the July flooding event impacted receipts relative to our monthly flood-adjusted expectations within the context of the state’s forbearance measures. With the forbearance measures expiring this month, we will begin to see how those measures affected receipts activity through October. Continued international and federal tensions, restrictive monetary policy and Vermont’s recovery from the recent July flooding event have all combined to disrupt the normal economic and revenue indicators used to project future performance. The administration remains vigilant in monitoring these benchmarks and stands ready to take action if necessary.”
Source: 11.30.2023. Montpelier, VT - Secretary of Administration
