by Timothy McQuiston, Vermont Business Magazine
State tax revenues finally saw some breathing room after several months of sluggish performance. Led by the Personal Income Tax, the General Fund for September 2023, the third month of the fiscal year, exceeded expectations by nearly $15.5 million. The three major funds together, which includes Education and Transportation, surpassed their total target by $8.7 million. The Personal Income Tax alone exceeded expectations by nearly $17 million.
The PI is the most important General Fund revenue source. Several other important sources missed their marks, including Corporate Income, Sales and Rooms & Meals.
Secretary of Administration Kristin Clouser released Vermont’s revenue results for September 2023 today.
The General Fund surpassed its monthly consensus cash flow target, corresponding to the annual fiscal 2024 consensus forecast as adopted by the Emergency Board at its July 2023 meeting. However, revenues in both the Transportation Fund and Education Fund failed to achieve their respective monthly consensus targets during September.
The state’s General Fund, Transportation Fund, and Education Fund receipts were a combined $301.0 million, exceeding the $292.3 million monthly consensus target by $8.7 million, or 3.0%.
General Fund revenues for September totaled $216.0 million, $15.5 million, or 7.7%, above the $200.5 million monthly consensus cash flow target. Personal Income Tax receipts surpassed their $97.4 million target by $16.9 million, or 17.3%, to yield $114.3 million.
The Healthcare Taxes exceeded their $23.7 million target by $0.2 million, 0.9%, generating $23.9 million; the Liquor Tax achieved its $0.4 million target; and the Other receipts category generated $7.3 million, or 68.4%, in revenues above its $10.6 million monthly consensus cash flow target of $17.9 million in receipts.
However, the Meals & Rooms Tax missed its $16.8 million monthly consensus cash flow target by -$1.1 million, or -6.6%, resulting in $15.6 million in September revenues. Monthly receipts in the Corporate Income Tax missed its $46.9 million monthly consensus cash flow target by -$6.9 million, or -14.8%, resulting in monthly revenues of $40.0 million.
Revenues in the Transportation Fund missed their $28.0 million September consensus target by -$4.1 million, or -14.7%, yielding only $23.9 million with none of the individual revenue categories achieving their respective consensus monthly targets.
The Gasoline Tax missed its $6.6 million target by -$0.3 million, -4.3% in generating revenues of $6.3 million. Receipts activity in the Motor Vehicle Purchase and Use Tax generated $7.3 million, missing its $10.0 million target by -$2.7 million, or -27.2%. Revenues in the Motor Vehicle Fees component generated $7.3 million, missing their $7.7 million target by -$0.5 million, or -6.4%.
Monthly Education Fund revenues of $61.1 million were -$2.6 million, -4.1%, below their September $63.8 million cash flow target. The Lottery Transfer exceeded its $2.6 million monthly consensus cash flow target by $0.6 million, or 20.6%, posting $3.2 million in September receipts while all other revenue categories failed to achieve their respective monthly consensus targets.
The Sales & Use Tax missed its $48.0 million target by -$0.4 million, -0.8%, resulting in monthly revenues of $47.6 million. Activity in the Meals & Rooms Tax failed to achieve its $6.1 million target by -$0.4 million, or -6.6%, posting $5.7 million in monthly receipts.
Secretary Clouser said: “Vermont’s first quarter revenue results reflect the variability in our economy. Considering the volatile international scene, an aggressive Federal Reserve and yet another potential federal shutdown, we are relieved to be in a relatively good position heading into the second quarter, but we remain focused on containing costs due to the highly unstable macroeconomic situation.”
