Secretary of Administration Neale F Lunderville released the October 2009 General Fund Revenues today. General Fund revenues totaled 88.22 million for October 2009, -$0.14 million or -0.16% below the $88.36 million consensus revenue forecast for the month. Year to date, General Fund revenues of $351.22 million were +$5.95 million and +1.72% above the year to date FY 2010 target.
October will be the last month utilizing the July 16, 2009 Fiscal Year 2010 Consensus Revenue Forecast as adjusted downward by the Emergency Board. The next consensus forecast is scheduled to be reviewed by the Emergency Board on November 12, 2009. Normally, the State’s Consensus Revenue Forecast is updated two times per year in January and July. In order to stay current with the economic situation, the Emergency Board has adopted a quarterly review schedule for this and last fiscal year. Personal Income Tax receipts are the largest single state revenue source, and are reported Net-of-Personal Income Tax refunds. Personal Income Tax receipts for October were $48.59 million, +$2.61 million or +5.67% ahead of the monthly target. Sales & Use Tax, at $19.75 million was +$0.14 million or +0.71% above target. Rooms & Meals Tax was $10.44 million, +$0.44 million or +4.38% above target for October. Corporate Income Tax receipts are also reported net-of refunds. Corporate Tax was the weakest performer for October of the four major General Fund categories. For the month, Corporate Tax receipts were $2.38 million or -$0.55 million (-18.81%) below the target. The year to date results for the four major General Fund categories are as follows: Personal Income Tax, $178.44 million (+1.91%); Sales & Use Tax, $71.07 million (+0.07%); Corporate, $17.02 million (+13.88%); and Meals & Rooms, $43.49 million (+4.35%). The remaining tax components include Insurance, Inheritance & Estate Tax, Real Property Transfer Tax, and “Other” (which includes: Bank Franchise Tax, Telephone Tax, Liquor Tax, Beverage Tax, Fees, and Other Taxes). Results for the month of October were as follows:
Insurance Tax, $0.53 million (+54.66%); Estate Tax, $0.19 million (-86.91%); Property Transfer Tax, $0.70 million (+15.56%); and Other, $5.65 million (-24.40%). Year to date results for these categories were: Insurance Tax, $8.94 million (+9.84%); Estate Tax, $5.13 million (+5.36%); Property Transfer Tax, $2.86 million (+13.42%); and Other, $24.28 million (-10.09%).
Transportation FundSecretary Lunderville also reported on the results for the non-dedicated Transportation Fund Revenue, revenue of $17.31 million for the month or -$0.73 million (-4.03%), below the monthly target for October of $18.04 million. The year to date non-dedicated Transportation revenue was $72.36 million versus the target of $71.04 million (+$1.32 million, +1.87%).
Revenue from the Gasoline Tax, and Motor Vehicle Purchase & Use Tax were essentially on target, while Diesel Tax, Motor vehicle Fees, and “Other” were below target for October. The Transportation Fund revenue results for October were: Gasoline, $5.13 million or +0.36% above target; Diesel Tax, $0.97 million or -30.41% below target; Motor Vehicle Purchase & Use Tax, $3.88 million or +0.07% above target; Motor Vehicle Fees, $5.86 million or -3.25% under target; and Other Fees, $1.47 million or -7.91% below the monthly target. “The Transportation Fund has been affected by the general economic situation, slow vehicle sales, and relatively high energy prices – even though energy prices are 1/3 less than one year ago. In the two months following ‘Cash for Clunkers’ sales dipped in September but increased in October. It is still not clear if the boost from the ‘Cash for Clunkers program’ in July and August will be sustained or if the increases represent a compression of sales that would have occurred over the next several months anyway,” said Secretary Lunderville.
The October year to date Transportation Fund revenue results were: Gasoline, $21.71 million or +2.45% above target; Diesel Tax, $4.93 million or +11.61% above target; Motor Vehicle Purchase & Use Tax, $15.95 million or +3.41% above target; Motor Vehicle Fees, $23.56 million or -0.82% below target; and Other Fees, $6.22 million or -0.62% short of target.
Secretary Lunderville also reported on the results for the Transportation Infrastructure Bond Fund (“TIB”). Act 50 of the 2009 session provided that receipts in the TIB Fund that are generated by a motor fuel (gas and diesel) assessment on distributors would first be dedicated to paying the principal, interest and related costs on any Transportation Infrastructure Bonds. After payment of the related bond costs, any remaining TIB monies may be used to fund qualifying Transportation capital projects. Any potential remaining monies could be used to offset unforeseen non-dedicated Transportation Fund Revenue shortfalls. TIB Fund Gas receipts for October were $0.86 million or -30.03%; year to date, TIB Fund Gas receipts were $3.98 million or -16.77%. TIB Fund Diesel receipts were not excepted until later in the fiscal year. The TIB Fund receipts are noted below the following table:
Education FundSecretary Lunderville released revenue results for the “the non-Property Tax” Education Fund revenues (which constitute approximately 11% of the total Education Fund sources). Education Fund receipts for October totaled $13.35 million, or -$0.04 million (-0.33%) below the $13.39 million consensus revenue target for the month.
The individual Education Fund revenue component results for October were: Sales & Use Tax, $9.87 or +0.71%; Motor Vehicle Purchase & Use Tax, $1.94 million or +0.07%; Lottery Transfer, $1.51 million or -10.61%; and Education Fund Interest, $0.03 million or -174.29%. Year-to-date results were: Sales & Use Tax, $35.53 or +0.07%; Motor Vehicle Purchase & Use Tax, $7.98 million or +3.41%; Lottery Transfer, $5.88 million or -3.96%; and Education Fund Interest, $0.05 million or -206.97%.
ConclusionSecretary Lunderville commented that, “While the U.S. economy may have reached bottom, the recovery to pre-recession levels will take several years. The continuing job losses are most concerning, with the national unemployment rate increasing to 10.2%. Although Vermont’s jobless rate is lower than other states in the region, our economists believe we are still losing jobs. We expect employers to be very cautious before adding jobs back into the economy – preferring to increase the hours of existing workers or add temporary jobs before committing to full time permanent positions. We will get more information about the state of the Vermont economy in our next Consensus Revenue Forecast, which will be presented by the economists to the Emergency Board for action this Thursday.”
Source: Administration office. 11.10.2009.