Vermont unemployment rate (7.1 percent) falls, but so do jobs

The Vermont Department of Labor announced today that the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for June 2009 was 7.1 percent, down 0.3 tenths of a point from the revised May rate and up 2.6 points from a year ago. When seasonally adjusted, June job levels fell by 1,200 or -0.4% from May. Only the Construction sector, (+300 or +2.2%) and Health Care, (+200 or +0.4%) showed any over the month seasonally adjusted growth. Manufacturing, Leisure and Hospitality and Administrative Support & Waste were the largest job losers, shedding 500, 300 and 300 jobs respectively.
Unemployment rates for Vermont s 17 labor market areas ranged from 3.8 percent in Hartford to 10.1 percent in Rutland. Local labor market area unemployment rates are not seasonally adjusted. For comparison, the June unadjusted unemployment rate for Vermont was 7.0 percent, down one-tenth of a point from May 2009 and up 2.5 points from a year ago. The June unadjusted unemployment rate for Vermont was not statistically different from the May rate.
While the fall in Vermont s unemployment rate is welcome, this could be temporary based on other indicators we are seeing, said Patricia Moulton Powden, Commissioner of the Vermont Department of Labor. Jobs dropped a bit in June after several months of holding steady with manufacturing, temporary services and weather dependent activities appearing to be the culprits.
Job Growth
Typically we see strong seasonal growth in June job counts as summer activities start up. Before seasonal adjustment, Total Non-Farm (TNF) jobs grew by 1,650 or 0.6% over the month, only sixty-five percent of what we usually see. Annual unadjusted job growth fell by 11,850 or -3.8%. This rate of annual loss is slower than what we saw in May, but this is due to a very anemic June, 2008 rather than any significant improvement in the job market. Construction, (+1,150 jobs or +8.3%) Leisure & Hospitality, (+2,650 or +9.6%) Health Care & Social Assistance, (+500 or +1.1%) and Retail Trade, (+450 or +1.2%) led over the month seasonal growth, but of these, only Health Care & Social Assistance showed any annual improvement.
Employment Growth
Vermont s June seasonally adjusted unemployment rate fell by three tenths of a point to 7.1% percent as a result of a decline in both the number of employed and unemployed Vermonters. Vermont s observed June seasonally adjusted employment, unemployment levels and unemployment rate were not statistically significant May. For comparison purposes, the US seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for May was 9.5 percent, up one-tenth of a point from the revised May rate of 9.4 percent. Statistical diagnostics of the June unemployment estimate indicate that observed decline may be temporary. We believe that the unemployment rate in future months will return to the path of recent trend.
The preliminary estimates of nonfarm jobs for June, and the revisions to the estimates for November 2008 through May 2009, incorporate substantive changes made in the Current Employment Survey estimation procedures. These new procedures are designed to bring the aggregate monthly change in jobs for individual states into closer alignment with the change in national job counts reflected in the estimates produced and published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. As a result of these changes, the November 2008 and forward estimates may not be totally comparable to previous months' data. The impact of these changes in methodology will be better understood when we are able to make comparisons to Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages. We expect to make these comparisons beginning in May of 2009. For details of these changes, please contact Andy Condon at the Vermont Department of Labor at 802-828-4153 or [email protected].
Source: Vermont Department of Labor