Secretary of Administration Neale F. Lunderville has released General Fund revenue results for the month of January, the seventh month of Fiscal Year 2009. General Fund revenues were well below target for the month as compared to the consensus revenue target revised in mid-January. The General Fund revenues of $119.20 million for the month of January 2009 were -$14.05 million or -10.54% below the $133.25 million consensus revenue forecast for the month. Year-to-date, General Fund revenues were $674.91 million or -$14.05 million (-2.04%) below the consensus revenue forecast for FY 2009. It is important to understand that these revenue results are not only unfavorable as compared to the most recent targets, but that they are also below where we were one year ago, said Secretary Lunderville.
The monthly targets reflect the most recent FY 2009 consensus revenue forecast that was agreed to by the Emergency Board on January 13, 2009. The state's consensus revenue forecast is normally updated two times per year in January and July. However, with the downturn in the national and regional economy, the Emergency Board has been scheduling interim revenue reviews.
Personal Income Tax receipts posted the largest shortfall in the January General Fund results. Personal Income Tax receipts are the largest single state revenue source, and are reported Net of Personal Income Tax refunds. Personal Income Tax receipts for January were $72.97 million, -$7.67 million or -9.51% below the monthly target. Two of the components of the Personal Income (PI) receipts were very concerning - PI Withheld and PI Refunds. PI Withheld fell -$5.09 million below the monthly target, while the State had to refund -$2.83 million more in PI Refunds than expected. Year-to-date, the Personal Income Tax receipts of $360.49 million were below target against the $368.16 million year-to-date estimate.
Corporate Tax receipts are also reported net of refunds. Corporate Income Tax revenue results for January were $2.08 million net of refunds against the expected monthly target of $3.22 million, or -$1.14 million (-35.44%) short for the month. Year-to-date, Corporate Income Tax receipts of $24.62 million were -$1.14 million or -4.43% below the target of $25.76 million. We are very concerned with the downward trend, particularly in Personal Income Tax Withheld. This may be the first measurable drop in Personal Income Taxes due to job losses and cut backs. While it is possible that the spring 2009 tax filing season may see an uptick in tax payments, we consider it very unlikely.
For the month, receipts for the consumption taxes (Sales & Use Tax and Meals & Rooms Tax) were also down relative to the revised target. Sales & Use Tax receipts were $25.32 million (-$2.04 million, -7.46%) and Meals & Rooms Tax receipts were $10.15 million (-$0.69 million, -6.39%). Year-to-date, Sales & Use Tax was $134.48 million (-$2.04 million, -1.50%) and Rooms & Meals Tax receipts were $72.43 million (-$0.69 million, -0.95%). The weak performance, particularly in the Sales & Use Tax, reflects the severe lack of consumer confidence resulting in the lowest December/holiday receipts in 5 years.
The remaining components of the General Fund revenue followed the downward trend of the four major taxes discussed above; all were below target. The non-major tax component results for the month were: Insurance Premium, $0.47 million (-48.55%); Inheritance/Estate Tax, $0.16 million (-87.29%); Real Property Transfer Tax $0.60 million (-0.31%); and Other, $7.45 million (-11.44%). Year-to-date results for these components were: Insurance Premium, -2.51%; Inheritance/Estate Tax, -20.50%; Real Property Transfer Tax, -0.03%; and Other, -1.71%.
General Fund By Major Element (In Millions)*
Month
FY 2009 YTD
Tax Component
Target
Revenue
$ Change
% Change
Target
Revenue
$ Change
%Change
Personal Income
80.64
72.97
(7.67)
-9.51%
368.16
360.49
(7.67)
-2.08%
Sales & Use
27.38
25.32
(2.04)
-7.46%
136.53
134.48
(2.04)
-1.50%
Corporate
3.22
2.08
(1.14)
-35.44%
25.76
24.62
(1.14)
-4.43%
Meals & Room
10.84
10.15
(0.69)
-6.39%
73.12
72.43
(0.69)
-0.95%
Insurance Premium
0.91
0.47
(0.44)
-48.55%
17.70
17.25
(0.44)
-2.51%
Inheritance & Estate
1.27
0.16
(1.11)
-87.29%
5.40
4.29
(1.11)
-20.50%
Real Property Transfer
0.60
0.60
-
-0.31%
6.21
6.21
-
-0.03%
Other
8.39
7.45
(0.96)
-11.44%
56.08
55.14
(0.96)
-1.71%
Total
133.25
119.20
(14.05)
-10.54%
688.96
674.91
(14.05)
-2.04%
*Differences due to rounding
Transportation Fund
The non-dedicated Transportation Fund revenue results were also released today by Secretary Lunderville. The Transportation Fund revenues were $13.91 million, which was -$1.59 million or -10.27% below the monthly target for January. Year-to-date, the Transportation Fund revenues remain below the year-to-date consensus target at $114.15 million (-$1.59 million, -1.37%).
The results for the Transportation Fund revenue components were uniformly below target for the month. The components of the Transportation Fund revenue for the month were: Gasoline Tax, $5.11 million (-0.61%); Diesel Tax, $0.94 million (-30.45%); Motor Vehicle Purchase & Use Tax, $2.71 million (-15.66%); Motor Vehicle Fees, $4.03 million (-5.03%); and Other , $1.11 million (-27.94%). Year-to-date, the Transportation Fund revenue components for January were: Gasoline Tax, $36.32 million (-0.09%); Diesel Tax, $8.94 million (-4.38%); Motor Vehicle Purchase & Use Tax, $25.00 million (-1.98%); Motor Vehicle Fees, $34.22 million (-0.62%); and Other , $9.67 million (-4.28%)
Transportation Fund By Major Element (In Millions)*
Tax Component
Revenue
$Change
%Change
Target
Revenue
$Change
%Change
Gasoline
5.11
-0.03
-0.61%
36.35
36.32
-0.03
-0.09%
Diesel Fuel
0.94
-0.41
-30.45%
9.35
8.94
-0.41
-4.38%
MV Purchase & Use
2.71
-0.50
-15.66%
25.51
25.00
-0.50
-1.98%
Motor Vehicle Fees
4.03
-0.21
-5.03%
34.43
34.22
-0.21
-0.62%
Other
1.11
-0.43
-27.94%
10.10
9.67
-0.43
-4.28%
Total
13.91
-1.59
-10.27%
115.74
114.15
-1.59
-1.37%
*Differences due to rounding
Education Fund
Non-Property Tax Education Fund revenue receipts of $15.41 million were released by Secretary Lunderville today; these receipts are -$1.39 million (-8.30%) below the January monthly target of $16.81 million. Non-Property Tax Education Fund revenues constitute approximately 12% of the total Education Fund receipts. Year-to-date, non-Property Tax Education Fund revenues were $90.33 million or -$1.39 million (-1.52%) below the year-to-date consensus revenue forecast.
All of the components of the non-Property Tax Education revenue were below the January monthly targets, except Investment Income that was $0.48 million more than anticipated both for the month and year-to-date. The remaining components were: Sales & Use Tax, $12.67 million (-$1.02 million); Motor Vehicle Purchase & Use, $1.35 million (-$0.25 million); and Lottery Transfer, $1.36 million (-$0.59 million). Year-to-date results were: Sales & Use Tax, $67.24 million (-1.50%); Motor Vehicle Purchase & Use, $12.50 million (-1.98%); and Lottery Transfer, $10.36 million (-5.39%).
Education Fund By Major Element (In Millions)*
Non-Property Tax Component
Month
FY 2009 YTD
Target
Revenue
$Change
%Change
Target
Revenue
$Change
Sales & Use
13.69
12.67
(1.02)
-7.47%
68.26
67.24
(1.02)
-1.50%
MV Purchase & Use
1.61
1.35
(0.25)
-15.66%
12.75
12.50
(0.25)
-1.98%
Lottery Transfer
1.96
1.36
(0.59)
-30.17%
10.95
10.36
(0.59)
-5.39%
Investment Income
(0.45)
0.03
0.48
-107.36%
(0.25)
0.23
0.48
-194.84%
Total
16.81
15.41
(1.39)
-8.30%
91.72
90.33
(1.39)
-1.52%
*Differences due to rounding
Conclusion
Secretary Lunderville said that, This month's revenue report is a sobering reminder that the Vermont economy continues to weaken at an accelerated pace. A one month drop of $14 million in the General Fund is one of the largest single month drops in memory, with the largest portion of the decline coming in personal income. As compared to January 2008, revenues are $28 million less - another sign that Vermonters are not earning or spending at previous levels. These numbers highlight the need for swift action and tough decisions to address Vermont's budget challenges.
Lunderville continued, Further, with no clear indication of when revenues will stop declining, the idea of putting an additional income tax on top of Vermont's already high income tax rates - especially when personal income is falling - is counterproductive if we want a speedy recovery. We cannot add a heavier tax burden on Vermont's already overburdened families.
Attachments: Detailed schedules of revenue results comparing the current fiscal year-to-date period with the same period from the last fiscal year follow:
Comparative Statement of Revenues
General Fund
As of January 31, 2009
General Fund Schedule 2
Total to Date
Total to Date
Last Year
This Year
% of Change
Taxes
Personal Income
372,572,938
360,490,683
-3.24%
Sales & Use
141,956,951
134,482,670
-5.27%
Corporate
36,669,409
24,621,626
-32.86%
Meals & Room
74,411,377
72,432,183
-2.66%
Liquor & Wine
8,768,085
9,228,331
5.25%
Insurance Premium
17,109,356
17,251,831
0.83%
Telephone Gross Receipts
355,610
122,654
-65.51%
Telephone Property
4,547,863
4,425,574
-2.69%
Beverage
3,445,569
3,475,312
0.86%
Electric Generating
1,331,403
1,387,783
4.23%
Inheritance & Estate
8,798,771
4,292,804
-51.21%
Real Property Transfer
7,345,800
6,209,844
-15.46%
Bank Franchise
7,406,474
13,741,182
85.53%
All Other Taxes
1,848,042
1,947,895
5.40%
Total Taxes
686,567,650
654,110,372
-4.73%
Other Revenues
Business Licenses
1,217,784
1,270,126
4.30%
Fees
8,693,040
11,262,186
29.55%
Services
1,104,899
883,325
-20.05%
Fines, Forfeits & Penalties
1,842,764
6,334,393
243.74%
Interest, Prem
3,339,917
893,108
-73.26%
Special Assessments
0
0
0.00%
All Other Revenues
265,571
152,086
-42.73%
Total Other Revenues
16,463,976
20,795,223
26.31%
Total General Fund
703,031,625
674,905,595
-4.00%
Prepared by Department of Finance & Management
Date: February 03, 2009
Time: 12:53
Comparative Statement of Revenues
Transportation Fund
As of January 31, 2009
T Fund Detail Schedule 2
Total to Date
Total to Date
Last Year
This Year
% of Change
Non-Dedicated
Taxes
Gasoline
37,613,594
36,315,797
-3.45%
Diesel Fuel
9,922,377
8,938,121
-9.92%
MV Purchase & Use
29,873,227
25,003,096
-16.30%
Total Taxes
77,409,198
70,257,014
-9.24%
Other Revenues
Motor Vehicle Fees
35,520,287
34,220,761
-3.66%
Other
14,459,948
9,668,716
-33.13%
Total Other Revenues
49,980,234
43,889,477
-12.19%
Total Non-Dedicated
127,389,433
114,146,491
-10.40%
Dedicated
Federal Aid
108,945,256
116,110,923
6.58%
Other
2,680,800
1,231,611
-54.06%
Total Dedicated
111,626,056
117,342,534
5.12%
Total Transportation Fund
239,015,489
231,489,025
-3.15%
Note: Revenue Estimates are fiscal year total estimates.
Prepared by Department of Finance & Management
Date: February 03, 2009
Time: 12:53
State of Vermont
Comparative Statement of Revenues
Education Fund
As of January 31, 2009
Education Fund Schedule 2
Total to Date
Total to Date
Last Year
This Year
% of Change
Non-Dedicated
Estimated Revenues:
Sales & Use
70,977,411
67,240,326
-5.27%
Purchase & Use
14,936,614
12,501,548
-16.30%
Lottery Transfer
11,632,001
10,364,306
-10.90%
Investment Income
(1,071,307)
223,701
120.88%
Total estimated revenues
96,474,719
90,329,881
-6.37%
Other Revenues:
Education Property Taxes
83,135,950
76,981,075
-7.40%
Electric Energy Educ Prop Tax
972,767
1,013,643
4.20%
Medicaid Reimbursement
0
0
0.00%
Total other revenues
84,108,717
77,994,718
-7.27%
Total Education Fund
180,583,436
168,324,599
-6.79%
Note: Revenue Estimates are fiscal year total estimates.
Prepared by Department of Finance & Management
Date: February 03, 2009
Time: 12:53