2010 Vermont Election Analysis

By Chris Graff. Peter Shumlin wins in the end. Just barely.
He did it in the primary. An unusual and expensive decision to run statewide television ads pushed him across the finish line ahead of Doug Racine. Just barely, leading to the first statewide primary election recount in the state’s history.
He did it in the general election, trading the lead with Brian Dubie throughout election night but ended up ahead, just barely.
His double narrow wins is a first in Vermont history. Never have we had a governor who so narrowly won the primary and then narrowly won the general election.
So how did he win in the end?
1. TIME FOR A CHANGE: It is one of the most powerful messages in any political campaign. Especially so in Vermont. Without fail since 1962 Vermont has alternated Republican and Democratic governors so that a period of expansion follows a period of retrenchment, which, in turn, follows a period of expansion. After eight years of Republican rule, Vermonters were open for change.
2. WE LOVE LEADERS: Shumlin’s dynamic style and aggressive debate performance resonated with voters, who tend to want strong leaders as governors.
3. IN LEAHY, SANDERS, WELCH AND DEAN WE TRUST: Brian Dubie repeatedly attacked Shumlin on the issue of trust, seeking to persuade voters that Shumlin could not be trusted. The Shumlin campaign responded with a high-powered, carefully orchestrated trust-by-association campaign where Bernie Sanders, Pat Leahy, Peter Welch, and Howard Dean vouched for Shumlin ‘ and campaigned with him day in and day out. And the election eve appearance by Joe Biden provided a huge assist for Shumlin. I’m betting his margin of victory alone came from the election day front page photos of Shumlin and Biden, armed raised in victory.
4. PETER=JOBS: Brian Dubie had a clear edge early in the campaign with his emphasis on jobs. But over time Shumlin seemed to neutralize that edge by his repeated references to his personal rags-to-riches business story. And the fact that he is worth $10 million became a positive on the business front, as folks decided that meant he was a successful businessman.
5. HOW ABOUT THEM ADS? Brian Dubie’s negative ads were effective. In February a poll had shown 46 percent of those surveyed had no opinion of Shumlin. In February Shumlin’s favorables were 33 percent and his unfavorables were 21 percent. By October almost everyone had an opinion of Shumlin and his unfavorables jumped to 37 percent. But that negative campaign came with a price as Brian Dubie’s image as the most decent man suffered.
Any analysis of this year’s election needs to include recognition of the fact that Dubie did well. Vermont leans Democratic: A Republican win at the statewide level ‘ especially in a race for governor ‘ is the exception.
The odds favored Shumlin yet Dubie held his own. He is perhaps the most conservative gubernatorial candidate we have seen since the early 1970s. With his pro-life background and his general unease in a debate situation, the guy should have been toast. But he beat the odds and almost won the office of governor.
Some random thoughts on the 2010 results:
1. WE LIKE OUR BUMS! As the nation shouted ‘Throw the bums out,’ we said we like our bums. And we don’t think they are bums! The wave election that roiled the nation and turned so many states red missed Vermont. Our blue state actually became bluer as the office of governor switched from a Republican to a Democrat. U.S. Sen. Pat Leahy and U.S. Rep. Peter Welch never broke a sweat in a year in which Democrats across the country fell to defeat.
2. A NATIVE SHALL LEAD THEM: For the first time since Deane Davis served as governor (1969-1973), a native Vermonter will hold the post of chief executive. Five out of staters have served since 1973 ‘ Tom Salmon, Dick Snelling, Madeleine Kunin, Howard Dean, and Jim Douglas ‘ leaving some to wonder if a native born would ever again serve as governor. Both Peter Shumlin and Brian Dubie are natives.
3. IT’S A MAN’S WORLD: With the departure of Secretary of State Deb Markowitz, all of the statewide political offices will be held by men. That’s nine offices: two U.S. senators, one congressman, the governor, lieutenant governor, secretary of state, treasurer, auditor, and secretary of state.
Chris Graff, a former Vermont bureau chief of The Associated Press and host of VPT's Vermont This Week, is now vice president for communications at National Life Group. He is author of, Dateline Vermont: Covering and uncovering the newsworthy stories that shaped a state - and influenced a nation.