by Chris Graff
Lieutenant Governor Brian Dubie would defeat four of the five Democratic gubernatorial candidates if the election were held today, according to a poll released today. Only Secretary of State Deb Markowitz would beat Dubie - and Markowitz s edge, 43 percent to 41 percent, with 16 percent undecided is within the margin of error of the poll, conducted over the past weekend for a trio of news organizations, WCAX-TV, Vermont Business Magazine and WDEV Radio Vermont. (SEE POLL DATA BELOW)
The poll, which is decidedly early in the political season, reflects the fact that both Dubie and Markowitz hold statewide office and thus enjoy higher name recognition than the others.
What is most interesting is that nearly half of the likely voters surveyed had no opinion of either state Senator Peter Shumlin or former state Senator Matt Dunne while more than half had no opinion of state Senator Susan Bartlett. The fifth candidate, state Senator Doug Racine, fared somewhat better: Only one-third of those surveyed had no opinion of Racine, who probably still benefits from the name recognition gained as lieutenant governor and in his home base of Chittenden County.
The lack of opinion about Shumlin is especially surprising because Shumlin, who is the president pro tem of the Senate, has been on TV, radio and in the newspapers every day in recent weeks urging the shutdown of Vermont Yankee nuclear plant. The poll was conducted Sunday through Tuesday.
The poll is early in the season but it should provide a boost to Dubie s candidacy because it shows him winning in head-to-head matchups against Racine, Shumlin, Dunne and Bartlett.
Most critically, Dubie polled well among the independents, a key demographic. Exit polling in 2008 found 40 percent of Vermont voters self-identified as independents; nationally only 29 percent say they are independent. In the match-ups with Racine, Shumlin, Bartlett and Dunne, roughly half of the independents went to Dubie and a third went to the Democrats. In the match-up with Markowitz, the two split the independents.
The poll also asked likely voters who they would support if Anthony Pollina ran as a Progressive. In all cases Dubie won the three-way races, gaining roughly 40 percent of the vote while the Democrats each gained about 30 percent and Pollina gained 12 percent. Roughly 20 percent was undecided.
Any analysis of this poll cannot emphasize enough that it is incredibly early in the political season. The candidates have only just begun their campaigns; the public is not at all focused on the race for governor.
But with that in mind, here are the major takeaways:
Dubie benefits from his eight years as lieutenant governor. His favorability rating of 46 percent indicates that he is gaining a positive image from his association with the Douglas administration.
Markowitz s long tenure as secretary of state gives her high name recognition and the highest favorable rating. The poll results show 48 percent have a favorable opinion of Markowitz.
The other Democrats have a long way to go to introduce themselves to the voting public. Long tenure in the state Senate or the holding of legislative leadership posts does not automatically translate into statewide recognition.
The Democrats will continue to be handicapped by the fact there are five of them seeking the party nomination for governor. Not until late August or mid-September, depending on when the primary date is set, will one of them be able to focus on Dubie.
The poll also reinforces the belief that the Republican candidate benefits greatly if there is both Democratic and Progressive candidates running.
It is a long way to the primary and a longer way to November. The dynamics of the race will surely shift once the candidates gear up and start spending money on advertising and organization.
So the major takeaway from this poll is: Don t count anyone out yet. All of those undecided likely voters will make up their minds at some point.
Chris Graff, a former Vermont bureau chief of The Associated Press and host of VPT's Vermont This Week, is now vice president for communications at National Life Group. He is author of, Dateline Vermont: Covering and uncovering the newsworthy stories that shaped a state - and influenced a nation.
This survey was conducted by Research 2000 of Rockville, Maryland. A total of 400 likely voters were interviewed statewide by telephone between February 14 and February 16, 2010.
Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the state. Quotas were assigned to reflect the voter registration of distribution by county.
The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 5% percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the true figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as a gender or region.
SAMPLE FIGURES
Men
191
-48%
Women
209
-52%
Democrats
143
-36%
Republicans
93
-23%
Independents/Other
164
-41%
North
255
-64%
South
145
-36%
GOVERNOR S RACE
I am going to list the names of a few individuals who are active in public life. After I mention each one, I would simply like for you to tell me if you recognize that individual. If you do recognize the individual, I will then ask you if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of that individual.
A. The first name is ________. Do you recognize that name?
B. (IF YES) Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of ______?
FAV
UNFAV
NO OPINION
Brian Dubie
46%
33%
21%
Deb Markowitz
48%
28%
24%
Anthony Pollina
38%
31%
31%
Doug Racine
38%
30%
32%
Peter Shumlin
33%
21%
46%
Matt Dunne
34%
19%
47%
Susan Bartlett
26%
11%
63
QUESTION: If the election for Governor were held today, who would you vote for if the choices were between Deb Markowitz, the Democrat, and Brian Dubie, the Republican?
MARKOWITZ
DUBIE
UNDECIDED
ALL
43%
41%
16%
MEN
40%
45%
15%
WOMEN
46%
37%
17%
DEMOCRATS
63%
12%
25%
REPUBLICANS
10%
82%
8%
INDEPENDENTS
45%
43%
12%
NORTH
41%
43%
16%
SOUTH
47%
36%
17%
QUESTION: If the election for Governor were held today, who would you vote for if the choices were between Doug Racine, the Democrat, and Brian Dubie, the Republican?
DUBIE
RACINE
UNDECIDED
ALL
43%
38%
19%
MEN
47%
34%
19%
WOMEN
39%
42%
19%
DEMOCRATS
14%
59%
27%
REPUBLICANS
83%
7%
10%
INDEPENDENTS
46%
37%
17%
NORTH
46%
35%
19%
SOUTH
38%
43%
19%
QUESTION: If the election for Governor were held today, who would you vote for if the choices were between Peter Shumlin, the Democrat, and Brian Dubie, the Republican?
DUBIE
SHUMLIN
UNDECIDED
ALL
45%
35%
20%
MEN
49%
32%
19%
WOMEN
41%
38%
21%
DEMOCRATS
15%
55%
30%
REPUBLICANS
84%
6%
10%
INDEPENDENTS
49%
34%
17%
NORTH
48%
32%
20%
SOUTH
40%
40%
20%
QUESTION: If the election for Governor were held today, who would you vote for if the choices were between Matt Dunne, the Democrat, and Brian Dubie, the Republican?
DUBIE
DUNNE
UNDECIDED
ALL
44%
36%
20%
MEN
48%
33%
19%
WOMEN
40%
39%
21%
DEMOCRATS
14%
57%
29%
REPUBLICANS
83%
6%
11%
INDEPENDENTS
48%
35%
17%
NORTH
47%
33%
20%
SOUTH
39%
41%
20%
QUESTION: If the election for Governor were held today, who would you vote for if the choices were between Susan Bartlett, the Democrat, and Brian Dubie, the Republican?
DUBIE
BARTLETT
UNDECIDED
ALL
48%
30%
22%
MEN
53%
26%
21%
WOMEN
43%
34%
23%
DEMOCRATS
16%
48%
36%
REPUBLICANS
85%
5%
10%
INDEPENDENTS
55%
29%
16%
NORTH
51%
26%
23%
SOUTH
43%
37%
20%
GOVERNOR RACE WITH POLLINA
QUESTION: If the election for Governor were held today, who would you vote for if the choices were between Deb Markowitz, the Democrat, Brian Dubie, the Republican, and Anthony Pollina, the Progressive Party candidate?
DUBIE
MARKOWITZ
POLLINA
UNDECIDED
ALL
37%
35%
11%
17%
MEN
39%
31%
15%
15%
WOMEN
35%
39%
7%
19%
DEMOCRATS
8%
55%
12%
25%
REPUBLICANS
81%
7%
6%
6%
INDEPENDENTS
37%
33%
14%
16%
NORTH
42%
32%
9%
17%
SOUTH
29%
40%
15%
16%
QUESTION: If the election for Governor were held today, who would you vote for if the choices were between Doug Racine, the Democrat, Brian Dubie, the Republican, and Anthony Pollina, the Progressive Party candidate?
DUBIE
RACINE
POLLINA
UNDECIDED
ALL
38%
32%
12%
18%
MEN
41%
28%
16%
15%
WOMEN
35%
36%
8%
21%
DEMOCRATS
9%
54%
18%
19%
REPUBLICANS
82%
6%
5%
7%
INDEPENDENTS
38%
27%
11%
24%
NORTH
43%
29%
9%
19%
SOUTH
28%
37%
18%
17%
QUESTION: If the election for Governor were held today, who would you vote for if the choices were between Peter Shumlin, the Democrat, Brian Dubie, the Republican, and Anthony Pollina, the Progressive Party candidate?
DUBIE
RACINE
POLLINA
UNDECIDED
ALL
39%
31%
12%
18%
MEN
43%
27%
16%
14%
WOMEN
35%
35%
8%
22%
DEMOCRATS
9%
54%
18%
19%
REPUBLICANS
83%
5%
5%
7%
INDEPENDENTS
40%
26%
11%
23%
NORTH
45%
28%
9%
18%
SOUTH
28%
36%
18%
18%
QUESTION: If the election for Governor were held today, who would you vote for if the choices were between Matt Dunne, the Democrat, Brian Dubie, the Republican, and Anthony Pollina, the Progressive Party candidate?
DUBIE
DUNNE
POLLINA
UNDECIDED
ALL
38%
31%
12%
19%
MEN
43%
26%
16%
15%
WOMEN
33%
36%
8%
23%
DEMOCRATS
8%
54%
18%
20%
REPUBLICANS
84%
5%
5%
6%
INDEPENDENTS
38%
26%
11%
25%
NORTH
43%
28%
9%
20%
SOUTH
28%
36%
18%
18%
QUESTION: If the election for Governor were held today, who would you vote for if the choices were between Susan Bartlett, the Democrat, Brian Dubie, the Republican, and Anthony Pollina, the Progressive Party candidate?
DUBIE
BARTLETT
POLLINA
UNDECIDED
ALL
44%
26%
13%
17%
MEN
48%
19%
17%
16%
WOMEN
40%
33%
9%
18%
DEMOCRATS
12%
48%
20%
20%
REPUBLICANS
85%
4%
5%
6%
INDEPENDENTS
48%
19%
12%
21%
NORTH
51%
23%
10%
16%
SOUTH
32%
31%
19%
18%