The Vermont Department of Labor announced today the seasonally-adjusted statewide unemployment rate for September 2011 was 5.8 percent, a decrease of one-tenth of a percent from the August rate. Compared to a year ago, the rate is lower by one-tenth of a percentage point. The Vermont unemployment rate continues to be well below the national rate. In September 2011, the seasonally-adjusted national unemployment rate was 9.1 percent. The United States has held steady at this rate for the last three months.
‘This monthly data was the first glimpse into the economic picture post-Irene. While the destruction caused by the storm was extensive and wide spread, it did create economic opportunities. The recovery effort generated job openings and enticed discouraged workers to return to the labor force. During the recovery, the Vermont Department of Labor’s Career Resource Centers’ services have effectively assisted employers by matching them with potential employees. Employers are encouraged to continue to leverage these services and list employment opportunities with the Department of Labor. Overall, weare excited to see tremendous cooperation between public and private entities working on Vermont’s recovery,’ said Labor Commissioner Annie Noonan.
State of Vermont Overview
The Vermont seasonally adjusted unemployment rate decreased by one-tenth of a percent in Septemberto 5.8 percent. The comparable rateover the same time period for the United States was unchanged; remaining stable at 9.1 percent.The seasonally-adjusted Vermont data show the total Vermont labor force grew by 2,300. Total employmentincreased by 2,100 while total unemployment was unchanged over the month. Theover the month changesto the total labor force and total employment were statistically significant.
September unemployment rates for Vermont’s 17 labor market areas ranged from 4.0 percent in Hartford to 7.7 percent in Newport (note: local labor market area unemployment rates are not seasonally adjusted). For comparison, theSeptember unadjusted unemployment rate for Vermont was 5.2 percent which reflects a decrease of two-tenths of a percent from the August level and a decline of three-tenths of a percent from a year ago.
Analysis of Job Changes by Industry
The preliminary ‘not seasonally adjusted’ jobs numbers for September show anincrease of 7,600 jobs when compared to the revised August numbers. This reported over the month change does not include the 100 job increase between the preliminary and the revised August estimates due to the inclusion of more data. As detailed in the preliminary ‘not seasonally adjusted’September data, Total Private displays a decrease of 2,950 jobs and Government reports an increase of 10,550 jobs. The positive increase to Government was driven by typical seasonal fluctuations in the public education system as reflected in the over the month changes in both State Government Education and Local Government Education, +2,400 and +9,150 jobs, respectively.In the private sector, Educational and Health Services (+1,200 jobs) reported the largest nominal increase while Leisure and Hospitality (-2,800 jobs) reported the largest nominal decrease.
The seasonally adjusted data for Septemberreports an increase of 700 jobs from the revised August data. As with the ‘not seasonally adjusted’ data, this over the month change is from the revised August numbers which experienced a downward revision from the preliminary estimates by300 jobs. A review of the seasonally adjusted Septembernumbers reflects that the large nominal over the month changes reported in the non-seasonally adjusted data were seasonal in nature and typical. The seasonally adjusted data had few over the month changes of significant magnitude. Vermont’s Private Industries reported a decrease of 200 jobs while Total Government reported a 900 job increase. The private industries of note were Manufacturing (-500 jobs) and Professional & Business Services (+500 jobs).
VERMONT LABOR FORCE AND UNEMPLOYMENT
LABOR MARKET AREAS BY RESIDENCE (Not Seasonally Adjusted)
September 2011 Estimates
Total
Number
Number
Sept-11
Aug-11
Sept-10
Area
Labor Force
Employed
Unemployed
Rate (%)
Rate (%)
Rate (%)
Barre-Montpelier
30,800
29,250
1,550
5.0
5.3
5.4
Bennington
12,600
11,750
800
6.6
6.9
6.3
Bradford
4,750
4,450
300
6.1
6.2
6.2
Brattleboro
25,050
23,600
1,450
5.8
5.5
5.5
Burlington-South Burlington
119,650
114,650
5,050
4.2
4.6
4.7
Hartford
19,550
18,750
800
4.0
3.6
3.8
Manchester
12,200
11,450
700
5.8
6.0
6.3
Middlebury
18,650
17,750
900
4.9
5.3
5.3
Morristown-Stowe
20,500
19,350
1,100
5.5
5.6
5.9
Newport
13,700
12,650
1,050
7.7
7.8
7.4
Randolph
8,700
8,150
550
6.3
6.0
6.1
Rutland
28,050
26,200
1,850
6.7
6.4
6.8
Springfield
11,450
10,650
800
7.1
7.0
7.3
St. Johnsbury
14,600
13,750
850
5.7
6.1
5.8
Swanton-Enosburg
14,950
14,100
850
5.6
6.1
6.3
Warren-Waitsfield
4,200
4,000
200
4.3
4.1
4.5
Woodstock
3,600
3,400
200
5.9
4.7
4.6
Vermont Total
365,200
346,050
19,150
5.2
5.4
5.5
Note: Unemployment rate is calculated as the number of unemployed divided by total labor force and expressed as a percent.
Source: Vermont Department of Labor LAUS program in cooperation with the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Vermont Labor Force Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted)
Changes From
September
2011
August
2011
September
2010
August
2011
September
2010
Total Labor Force
362,100
359,800
360,100
2,300
2,000
Employment
340,900
338,800
338,800
2,100
2,100
Unemployment
21,100
21,100
21,300
0
-200
Rate (%)
5.8
5.9
5.9
-0.1
-0.1
Vermont’s labor force, employment and unemployment statistics are produced from a combination of a Statewide survey of households and statistical modeling. The data are produced by the Local Area Unemployment Statistics Program (LAUS) a cooperative program with the US Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Vermont Department of Labor.
Vermont Seasonally Adjusted Nonfarm Employment in Thousands
BY NAICS
Prelim.
Revised
Revised
Change From:
% Change From:
Sep-11
Aug-11
Sep-10
Aug-11
Sep-10
Aug-11
Sep-10
Total - Nonfarm
303.3
302.6
297.1
0.7
6.2
0.2
2.1
Private Industries
249.8
250.0
242.9
-0.2
6.9
-0.1
2.8
Construction
13.1
13.3
13.3
-0.2
-0.2
-1.5
-1.5
Manufacturing
31.8
32.3
30.8
-0.5
1.0
-1.5
3.2
Durable Goods
23.0
23.5
21.7
-0.5
1.3
-2.1
6.0
Non-Durable Goods
8.8
8.8
9.1
0.0
-0.3
0.0
-3.3
Trade, Transportation & Utilities
56.6
56.9
56.2
-0.3
0.4
-0.5
0.7
Wholesale Trade
9.8
9.7
9.7
0.1
0.1
1.0
1.0
Retail Trade
38.1
38.3
38.0
-0.2
0.1
-0.5
0.3
Trans., Warehousing & Utilities
8.7
8.9
8.5
-0.2
0.2
-2.2
2.4
Financial Activities
12.3
12.3
12.1
0.0
0.2
0.0
1.7
Professional & Business Services
25.4
24.9
23.3
0.5
2.1
2.0
9.0
Professional., Scientific & Technical
15.7
15.5
13.6
0.2
2.1
1.3
15.4
Administrative Support & Waste
9.4
9.1
8.8
0.3
0.6
3.3
6.8
Education & Health Services
60.5
60.5
59.1
0.0
1.4
0.0
2.4
Private Ed. Services
12.6
12.8
12.5
-0.2
0.1
-1.6
0.8
Health Care & Social Assistance
47.9
47.7
46.6
0.2
1.3
0.4
2.8
Leisure & Hospitality
34.3
34.0
32.0
0.3
2.3
0.9
7.2
Arts, Entertainment & Recreation
3.8
3.6
3.7
0.2
0.1
5.6
2.7
Accommodation & Food Services
30.5
30.4
28.3
0.1
2.2
0.3
7.8
Other Services
9.9
9.9
10.0
0.0
-0.1
0.0
-1.0
Total Government
53.5
52.6
54.2
0.9
-0.7
1.7
-1.3
State Government
17.9
17.3
17.4
0.6
0.5
3.5
2.9
Local Government
28.7
28.1
30.0
0.6
-1.3
2.1
-4.3
Burlington-S. Burlington MSA
Total - Nonfarm
115.1
114.7
111.8
0.4
3.3
0.3
3.0
Notes: Statewide Total Nonfarm is a summed total and Wholesale Trade has been added as a seasonally adjusted series in 2011.
Mining & Logging and Information are not published seasonally adjusted because the seasonal component, which is
small relative to the trend-cycle and irregular components, cannot be separated with sufficient precision.
Program Update: Starting with the March 2011 numbers, the Current Employment Statistics (CES) estimates transitioned from the VT Department of Labor to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The BLS implemented several methodological changes to standardize the estimation approach across states. While these changes will reduce the potential for statistical bias in state and metropolitan area estimates, they may increase the month to month variability of the estimates. More information is available on the BLS website at http://www.bls.gov/sae/cesprocs.htm.
Current Employment Statistics Program (CES). Produced by the Vermont Department of Labor in cooperation with the U.S Bureau of Labor Statistics.
ESTIMATED NONFARM EMPLOYMENT IN VERMONT
(Not Seasonally Adjusted)
Prelim
Revised
Revised
Changes From:
% Changes From:
INDUSTRY BY NAICS
Sep-11
Aug-11
Sep-10
Aug-11
Sep-10
Aug-11
Sep-10
TOTAL NONFARM
305,450
297,850
298,950
7,600
6,500
2.6%
2.2%
TOTAL PRIVATE
251,600
254,550
244,650
-2,950
6,950
-1.2%
2.8%
GOODS PRODUCING
47,450
48,600
46,750
-1,150
700
-2.4%
1.5%
MANUFACTURING
31,950
32,450
31,150
-500
800
-1.5%
2.6%
Durable Goods
23,100
23,500
21,950
-400
1,150
-1.7%
5.2%
Computer & Electrical Equipment Mfg.
8,050
8,150
8,200
-100
-150
-1.2%
-1.8%
Fabricated Metal Products Mfg.
2,400
2,400
2,400
0
0
0.0%
0.0%
Non-Durable Goods
8,850
8,950
9,200
-100
-350
-1.1%
-3.8%
Food Mfg.
4,350
4,350
4,200
0
150
0.0%
3.6%
CONSTRUCTION
14,750
15,350
14,800
-600
-50
-3.9%
-0.3%
MINING & LOGGING
750
800
800
-50
-50
-6.3%
-6.3%
SERVICE-PROVIDING
258,000
249,250
252,200
8,750
5,800
3.5%
2.3%
TRADE, TRANSPORTATION AND UTILITIES
56,750
57,050
55,950
-300
800
-0.5%
1.4%
Wholesale Trade
9,850
9,750
9,650
100
200
1.0%
2.1%
Retail Trade
38,050
38,650
37,700
-600
350
-1.6%
0.9%
Food & Beverage Stores
9,600
9,850
9,700
-250
-100
-2.5%
-1.0%
General Merchandise Store
2,950
2,950
2,900
0
50
0.0%
1.7%
Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities
8,850
8,650
8,600
200
250
2.3%
2.9%
Utilities
1,800
1,850
1,800
-50
0
-2.7%
0.0%
Transportation & Warehousing
7,050
6,800
6,800
250
250
3.7%
3.7%
INFORMATION
5,100
5,150
5,250
-50
-150
-1.0%
-2.9%
FINANCIAL ACTIVITIES
12,300
12,400
12,100
-100
200
-0.8%
1.7%
Finance & Insurance
9,300
9,350
9,100
-50
200
-0.5%
2.2%
Real Estate, Rental & Leasing
3,000
3,050
3,000
-50
0
-1.6%
0.0%
PROFESSIONAL AND BUSINESS SERVICES
25,900
25,750
23,650
150
2,250
0.6%
9.5%
Professional, Scientific and Technical
15,600
15,650
13,500
-50
2,100
-0.3%
15.6%
Administrative, Support and Waste
9,950
9,700
9,250
250
700
2.6%
7.6%
EDUCATIONAL AND HEALTH SERVICES
60,800
59,600
59,350
1,200
1,450
2.0%
2.4%
Educational Services
12,900
11,750
12,850
1,150
50
9.8%
0.4%
College, Universities and Professional
7,800
6,600
7,400
1,200
400
18.2%
5.4%
Health Care and Social Assistance
47,900
47,850
46,500
50
1,400
0.1%
3.0%
Ambulatory Health Care Services
16,300
16,200
15,400
100
900
0.6%
5.8%
Hospitals
12,750
12,750
12,600
0
150
0.0%
1.2%
Nursing and Residential Care Facilities
7,200
7,300
7,100
-100
100
-1.4%
1.4%
LEISURE AND HOSPITALITY
33,250
36,050
31,650
-2,800
1,600
-7.8%
5.1%
Arts, Entertainment and Recreation
4,050
4,350
4,100
-300
-50
-6.9%
-1.2%
Accommodation and Food Services
29,200
31,700
27,550
-2,500
1,650
-7.9%
6.0%
Accommodations
9,100
10,500
9,050
-1,400
50
-13.3%
0.6%
Hotels & Motels
7,600
8,400
8,000
-800
-400
-9.5%
-5.0%
Food Services and Drinking Places
20,100
21,200
18,500
-1,100
1,600
-5.2%
8.6%
OTHER SERVICES
10,050
9,950
9,950
100
100
1.0%
1.0%
GOVERNMENT
53,850
43,300
54,300
10,550
-450
24.4%
-0.8%
Federal Government
6,550
6,600
6,400
-50
150
-0.8%
2.3%
State Government Education
9,300
6,900
8,600
2,400
700
34.8%
8.1%
Local Government Education
21,500
12,350
23,100
9,150
-1,600
74.1%
-6.9%
Other State Government
8,950
9,300
9,150
-350
-200
-3.8%
-2.2%
Other Local Government
7,550
8,150
7,050
-600
500
-7.4%
7.1%
Note: CES PROGRAM DATA ARE PRDUCED IN COOPERATION WITH THE U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS
ESTIMATES ARE PRELIMINARY AND SUBJECT TO REVISION. SEE ANNUAL SUMMARY FOR DETAILS