The chief executives of Vermont’s leading businesses appear poised to hold steady their growth plans through the remainder of 2011, with sales and employment expectations less optimistic when compared against the first quarter survey period. The survey was completed between June 10 and June 24 and released today by Vermont Business Roundtable Chair Steve Voigt, CEO, King Arthur Flour and President Lisa Ventriss.
According to Roundtable President, Lisa Ventriss, ‘Overall, these data show an economy that continues to be in a holding pattern as our members wait for clarity and direction on key policy issues at both the state and federal levels. While roughly 60 percent of our members foresee increased sales projections for their companies, that number has declined slightly (61 percent compared to 73 percent in the previous quarter). An increasing number of CEOs expect there to be no change in either their capital expenditures or employment levels for the rest of 2011. Only one in ten CEOs are anticipating decreases in these key areas.’
Chair Steve Voigt said ‘Overall, Roundtable members are signaling that they are either growing slowly or holding steady, but it also appears that many Roundtable members ~ especially those in financial or professional services, which are dependent on business growth in other sectors ~ are reluctant to make significant investments in their company’s physical or human resources until they have a better picture of the future costs associated with those investments, namely health care and budget issues at the state and federal levels.’
The Roundtable’s CEO Economic Outlook Survey provides a forward-looking view of the economic assumptions and attitudes of chief executive officers of 115 of the state’s top employers with an aggregate economic impact of $279 billion, with over $693 million in corporate philanthropy, and employing 10 percent of the state’s workforce. The members represent Vermont’s agriculture, construction, education, health services, finance, real estate, insurance, hospitality/leisure, manufacturing, information, utilities, professional/business services, wholesale trade, and non-profit industries.
The response rate for this quarter was 53 percent. Historically, rates have varied from 35 to 73 percent.
1. How do you expect your company’s sales to change in the next six months?
Sales
INCREASE
NO CHANGE
DECREASE
Q1 2004
83%
13%
4%
Q2 2004
80%
15%
4%
Q3 2004
71%
25%
4%
Q4 2004
77%
22%
1%
Q1 2005
78%
19%
3%
Q2 2005
75%
23%
2%
Q3 2005
74%
24%
2%
Q4 2005
72%
24%
4%
Q1 2006
78%
20%
2%
Q2 2006
78%
22%
0%
Q3 2006
69%
25%
6%
Q4 2006
73%
23%
4%
Q3 2008
51%
35%
14%
Q4 2008
27%
46%
27%
Q1 2009
33%
30%
37%
Q2 2009
41%
31%
28%
Q3 2009
34%
49%
17%
Q1 2010
63%
19%
18%
Q2 2010
69%
24%
7%
Q3 2010
59%
35%
6%
Q4 2010
71%
23%
6%
Q1 2011
73%
19%
8%
Q2 2011
61%
34%
5%
Point change from Q1/11 to Q2/11
-8
15
-3
Totals may not equal 100 due to rounding.
2. How do you expect your company’s capital spending to change in the next six months?
Capital
INCREASE
NO CHANGE
DECREASE
Q1 2004
62%
30%
8%
Q2 2004
43%
41%
15%
Q3 2004
51%
42%
7%
Q4 2004
45%
46%
9%
Q1 2005
55%
37%
8%
Q2 2005
49%
43%
8%
Q3 2005
57%
38%
5%
Q4 2005
50%
35%
15%
Q1 2006
45%
45%
10%
Q2 2006
53%
40%
7%
Q3 2006
40%
50%
10%
Q4 2006
56%
39%
5%
Q3 2008
38%
42%
20%
Q4 2008
17 %
43%
40%
Q1 2009
12%
38%
50%
Q2 2009
17%
51%
32%
Q3 2009
31%
46%
23%
Q1 2010
50%
42%
8%
Q2 2010
51%
38%
11%
Q3 2010
37%
48%
15%
Q4 2010
49%
34%
17%
Q1 2011
47%
38%
15%
Q2 2011
46%
44%
10%
Point change from Q1/11 to Q2/11
-1
6
-5
Totals may not equal 100 due to rounding.
3. How do you expect your company’s employment to change in the next six months?
Employment
INCREASE
NO CHANGE
DECREASE
Q1 2004
57%
38%
4%
Q2 2004
50%
48%
2%
Q3 2004
59%
37%
4%
Q4 2004
58%
39%
3%
Q1 2005
55%
38%
7%
Q2 2005
49%
42%
9%
Q3 2005
49%
44%
7%
Q4 2005
60%
35%
5%
Q1 2006
54%
39%
7%
Q2 2006
50%
45%
5%
Q3 2006
43%
49%
7%
Q4 2006
53%
41%
5%
Q3 2008
40%
42%
18%
Q4 2008
25%
35%
40%
Q1 2009
23%
37%
40%
Q2 2009
21%
50%
29%
Q3 2009
34%
46%
20%
Q1 2010
40%
52%
8%
Q2 2010
46%
45%
9%
Q3 2010
35%
52%
13%
Q4 2010
51%
38%
11%
Q1 2011
44%
41%
15%
Q2 2011
36%
53%
11%
Point change from Q1/11 to
Q2/11
-8
8
-4
Totals may not equal 100 due to rounding.
The Roundtable is a nonprofit, nonpartisan organization of 120 CEOs of Vermont's top private and nonprofit employers, representing geographic diversity and all major sectors of the Vermont economy, with an aggregate economic impact of $135 billion and employing 15 percent of the state’s workforce. The Roundtable is committed to sustaining a sound economy and preserving Vermont’s unique quality of life by studying and making recommendations on statewide public policy issues.