Vermont Administration Secretary Jeb Spaulding delivered good good news on tax revenues Tuesday as the General Fund and Education Fund both exceed targets for the month of MArch. The Transportation Fund, however, fell below its anticipated mark.
General Fund
March is the ninth month of fiscal year (FY) 2011. General Fund revenues totaled
$74.87 million for March 2011, and were +$5.98 million or 8.68% above the $68.90 million
consensus revenue forecast for the month. The monthly results closed the February year to date
shortfall and pushed March year to date results slightly above target. March year to date
revenues were $813.33 million or +$1.65 million or +0.20% ahead of target. Compared to the
same period for the prior fiscal year, FY 2011 GF results are 8.67% ahead of FY 2010, but
remain below the pre-recession FY 2008 results by -2.70%.
These targets reflect the revised Fiscal Year 2011 Consensus Revenue Forecast approved by the
Emergency Board at their January 14, 2011 meeting. Statutorily, the State is required to revise
the Consensus Revenue Forecast two times per year, in January and July; the Emergency Board
may schedule interim revisions if deemed necessary.
‘Overall, our revenues are basically on target through the first three quarters of FY 11. It is heartening
to see personal income receipts recover nicely in March after two below target months in a row, and to
know that General fund revenues are up almost 9% compared to last year. However, we must be
cautious going forward because the run-up in fuel prices, numerous global hotspots, and government
spending reductions have the potential to be a drag on continued economic and revenue trends,’
explained Secretary Spaulding.
Personal Income Tax (PI) receipts are the largest single state revenue source, and are reported Net-of
Personal Income Tax refunds. Net Personal Income Tax is comprised of PI Withholding Tax, PI
Estimated Payments, PI Refunds Paid, and PI Other; with PI Withholdings less PI Refunds accounting
for more than 60% of the annual net Personal Income Tax receipts. Strong net PI Receipts for March
were recorded at $15.61 million, +$6.29 million or +67.60% ahead of the monthly target of $9.31
million. Year to date PI receipts were $353.67 million, or +0.42% above target.
Corporate Income Taxes for March are also reported net-of refunds. The March receipts were
disappointing at $13.75 million, or -$1.68 million or -10.90% below the monthly target of $15.43
million. Year to date Corporate Income Tax receipts of $62.41 million fell below the target by -1.11%.
‘Net Corporate Income tax performed below expectations for March,’ said Secretary Spaulding. Of the
four corporate tax components, two were above and two were below the targets for March. The most
notable underperformance occurred in the Corporate Paid Returns component, which finished -$6.0
million and -50.41% below the target for the month. Secretary Spaulding said, ‘It is not a good sign that
March has fallen -50.41% short for the month; March is normally the largest single month for Corporate
Paid return receipts.’
The consumption taxes both showed above target results for March: Sales & Use Tax receipts of
$16.80 million exceeded the monthly target by +$1.03 million (+6.52%); Rooms & Meals Tax
receipts of $12.76 million were above target by +$0.73 million (+6.07%). On a year to date
basis, both consumption taxes remain slightly below target: Sales & Use Tax, $165.23 million (-
0.15%); Meals & Room Tax, $96.38 million (-0.05%).
The remaining non-major tax components include Insurance, Inheritance & Estate Tax, Real
Property Transfer Tax, and ‘Other’ (which includes: Bank Franchise Tax, Telephone Tax,
Liquor Tax, Beverage Tax, Fees, and Other Taxes). The results for the month of March were as
follows: Insurance Tax, $7.02 million (+3.06%); Estate Tax, $0.80 million (-25.51%); Property
Transfer Tax, $0.52 million (-1.80%); and ‘Other’, $7.61 million (-4.02%). Year to date results
for these categories were: Insurance Tax, $47.49 million (+1.05%); Estate Tax, $20.74 million
(+4.57%); Property Transfer Tax, $6.23 million (+7.41%); and ‘Other’, $61.19 million
(+2.73%).
Transportation Fund
Secretary Spaulding also reported on the results for the non-dedicated Transportation Fund
Revenue for March. Total non-dedicated Transportation Fund receipts of $18.85 million for the
month fell below target by -$0.75 million (-3.81%), against the monthly target of $19.60 million.
The year to date non-dedicated Transportation revenue was $154.56 million versus the target of
$154.22 million (+$0.34 million, +0.22%).
Individual Transportation Fund revenue receipts components for March were: Gasoline Tax,
$5.31 million or -3.17% behind target; Diesel Tax, $1.03 million or -33.76% short of target;
Motor Vehicle Purchase & Use Tax, $4.04 million or +4.04% above target; Motor Vehicle Fees,
$6.75 million or +0.18% ahead of target; and Other Fees, $1.71 million or -11.27% below the
monthly target. The March year to date Transportation Fund revenue results were: Gasoline Tax,
$46.35 million or -0.52% short of target, Diesel Tax, $11.24 million or +0.25% above target;
Motor Vehicle Purchase & Use Tax, $34.81 million or +1.86% ahead of target; Motor Vehicle
Fees, $49.26 million or -0.50% behind target; and Other Fees, $12.89 million or +1.34% above
target.
Secretary Spaulding said, ‘The Transportation Fund overall is still on target, albeit certain
components seems a bit erratic; up one month and down the next.’
The Secretary also reported on the results for the Transportation Infrastructure Bond Fund
(’TIB’). TIB Fund Gas receipts for March were $1.41 million or -5.15% below target; year to
date receipts of $12.20 million were -1.20% short of target. TIB Fund Diesel receipts were $0.12
million or -38.00% behind the monthly target; year to date TIB Diesel receipts were $1.34
million or -1.00% short of target. TIB Fund receipts are noted below the following table:
Education Fund
The ‘non-Property Tax’ Education Fund revenues (which constitute approximately 11.9% of the
total Education Fund sources) were released today by Secretary Spaulding. The non-Property
Tax Education Fund receipts for March totaled $11.96 million, or +$0.43 million (+3.70%)
ahead of the $11.54 million target for the month. Year to date Education Fund revenues were
$114.57 million or -0.01% behind the year to date target of $114.58 million.
The individual Education Fund revenue component results for March were: Sales & Use Tax, $8.40
million, or +6.52% ahead of target; Motor Vehicle Purchase & Use Tax, $2.02 million or +4.04%;
Lottery Transfer, $1.54 million or -9.69%; and Education Fund Interest, under $0.01 million against a
target of $0.01 million (-15.49%). Year to date results were: Sales & Use Tax, $82.61 million or -
0.15%; Motor Vehicle Purchase & Use Tax, $17.41 million or +1.86%; Lottery Transfer, $14.51 million
or -1.11%; and Education Fund Interest, $0.04 against a target of $0.08 million (-51.01%).
Conclusion
Secretary Spaulding concluded, ‘Just as the national economy was beginning to brighten, energy
prices have begun to climb and the US Congress is cutting the federal budget. Concerns about
the unrest in North Africa and the Middle East, and rising energy prices have brought consumer
confidence down slightly and could well be a drag on the recovery. Vermont’s modest
unemployment rate reduction and continued positive vehicle sales are offset by another stall in
the housing market.’
Secretary Spaulding noted that, ‘We will be watching the individual and corporate tax filing
results for the next two critical weeks in the hopes that we will regain some of the below target
results in net corporate tax. Overall, General Fund receipts are just slightly above target; we are
hopeful that we will be able to maintain these results through the final quarter of FY 2011.’
Source: State of Vermont Agency of Administration. 4.12.2011