The chief executives of Vermont’s leading businesses appear increasingly poised for improvement in all three of the survey’s metrics: sales prospects, capital expenditures and employment levels for the winter and spring months of 2011, when compared against the previous survey period. The mood was assessed near the end of calendar year 2010 and released today by Vermont Business Roundtable Chair Bill Stritzler and President Lisa Ventriss.
According to Roundtable President, Lisa Ventriss, ‘Overall, these data present an important upswing in economic outlooks among the state’s leading CEOs and we’d have to go back to our pre-recessionary surveys of 2006 to find similar percentages for growth expectations. Specifically, our members’ strong sales forecasts (71 percent of respondents expect an increase compared to 59 percent in the previous survey); capital expenditures (49 percent compared to 37 percent, previously) and employment (51 percent compared to 35 percent, previously) tell a positive story,’ Ventriss said.
Chair Stritzler, the Managing Director of the Jeffersonville-based Smugglers’ Notch Resort, says the results of the CEO survey reflect encouraging attitudes across all sectors of the marketplace. ‘These data tell us that business leaders are prepared to again invest not only in physical infrastructure but, more importantly, in their workforces. This is very good news for Vermont and Vermonters. But at the same time, we must remember that these changes are fragile; there are still areas of concern in the numbers.’
‘In sum, we are encouraged by these results and believe that the economy continues to strengthen.’ said Stritzler.
The Roundtable’s CEO Economic Outlook Survey provides a forward-looking view of the economic assumptions and attitudes of chief executive officers for 120 of the state’s top employers that have an aggregate economic impact of $135 billion and employ 15 percent of the state’s workforce. Vermont’s agriculture, construction, education, health services, finance, real estate, insurance, hospitality/leisure, manufacturing, information, utilities, professional/business services, wholesale trade, and non-profit industries are represented. The response rate for this quarter was 65 percent. Historically, rates have varied from 35 to 73 percent.
1. How do you expect your company’s sales to change in the next six months?
Sales
INCREASE
NO CHANGE
DECREASE
Q1 2004
83%
13%
4%
Q2 2004
80%
15%
4%
Q3 2004
71%
25%
4%
Q4 2004
77%
22%
1%
Q1 2005
78%
19%
3%
Q2 2005
75%
23%
2%
Q3 2005
74%
24%
2%
Q4 2005
72%
24%
4%
Q1 2006
78%
20%
2%
Q2 2006
78%
22%
0%
Q3 2006
69%
25%
6%
Q4 2006
73%
23%
4%
Q3 2008
51%
35%
14%
Q4 2008
27%
46%
27%
Q1 2009
33%
30%
37%
Q2 2009
41%
31%
28%
Q3 2009
34%
49%
17%
Q1 2010
63%
19%
18%
Q2 2010
69%
24%
7%
Q3 2010
59
35
6
Q4 2010
71
6
23
% change from Q3/10 to Q4/10
12%
-29%
17%
Totals may not equal 100 due to rounding.
2. How do you expect your company’s capital spending to change in the next six months?
Capital
INCREASE
NO CHANGE
DECREASE
Q1 2004
62%
30%
8%
Q2 2004
43%
41%
15%
Q3 2004
51%
42%
7%
Q4 2004
45%
46%
9%
Q1 2005
55%
37%
8%
Q2 2005
49%
43%
8%
Q3 2005
57%
38%
5%
Q4 2005
50%
35%
15%
Q1 2006
45%
45%
10%
Q2 2006
53%
40%
7%
Q3 2006
40%
50%
10%
Q4 2006
56%
39%
5%
Q3 2008
38%
42%
20%
Q4 2008
17 %
43%
40%
Q1 2009
12%
38%
50%
Q2 2009
17%
51%
32%
Q3 2009
31%
46%
23%
Q1 2010
50%
42%
8%
Q2 2010
51%
38%
11%
Q3 2010
37
48
15
Q4 2010
49
17
34
% Change from Q3/10 to Q4/10
12%
-31%
19%
Totals may not equal 100 due to rounding.
3. How do you expect your company’s employment to change in the next six months?
Employment
INCREASE
NO CHANGE
DECREASE
Q1 2004
57%
38%
4%
Q2 2004
50%
48%
2%
Q3 2004
59%
37%
4%
Q4 2004
58%
39%
3%
Q1 2005
55%
38%
7%
Q2 2005
49%
42%
9%
Q3 2005
49%
44%
7%
Q4 2005
60%
35%
5%
Q1 2006
54%
39%
7%
Q2 2006
50%
45%
5%
Q3 2006
43%
49%
7%
Q4 2006
53%
41%
5%
Q3 2008
40%
42%
18%
Q4 2008
25%
35%
40%
Q1 2009
23%
37%
40%
Q2 2009
21%
50%
29%
Q3 2009
34%
46%
20%
Q1 2010
40%
52%
8%
Q2 2010
46%
45%
9%
Q3 2010
35
52
13
Q4 2010
51
11
38
% Change from Q3/10 to Q4/10
16%
-41%
25%
Totals may not equal 100 due to rounding.
-###-
The Roundtable is a nonprofit, nonpartisan organization of 120 CEOs of Vermont's top private and nonprofit employers, representing geographic diversity and all major sectors of the Vermont economy, with an aggregate economic impact of $135 billion and employing 15 percent of the state’s workforce. The Roundtable is committed to sustaining a sound economy and preserving Vermont’s unique quality of life by studying and making recommendations on statewide public policy issues.
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Source: Vermont Business Roundtable. 1.4.2011