The chief executives ofVermont’s leading businesses appear poised to maintain their growth plans through the first half of 2012, improving on results from the previous survey. The survey was completed between December 9 and December 23 and released today byVermont Business RoundtableChair Steve Voigt, CEO, King Arthur Flour and PresidentLisa Ventriss.
According to Roundtable President,Lisa Ventriss, ‘When viewed in the aggregate, these results point to an economy that is steadily improving, albeit slowly and with the concern attributed to key policy and political issues. Overall, the positive trends continue and the negative trends are decreasing.’ More than 60 percent of Roundtable CEOs expect to see their sales volumes increase; another 40 percent forecast increases in their capital expense budgets; and, 43 percent anticipate a larger workforce in the next six months. In all three cases, the amount of CEOs responding with negative outlooks is less than 10 percent.
Chair Steve Voigt said ‘The modest uptick on all three of these key indicators is a positive sign forVermontbusinesses and the strength of our economy into 2012. For the second survey period in a row, CEOs have been indicating an increase in economic activity that bodes well for Vermonters. ‘
The Roundtable’s CEO Economic Outlook Survey provides a forward-looking view of the economic assumptions and attitudes of chief executive officers of 118 of the state’s top employers with an aggregate economic impact of $292 billion, with over $1.8 billion in corporate philanthropy, and employing more than 10 percent of the state’s workforce. The members represent Vermont’s agriculture, construction, education, health services, finance, real estate, insurance, hospitality/leisure, manufacturing, information, utilities, professional/business services, wholesale trade, and non-profit industries.
The response rate for this quarter was 62 percent. Historically, rates have varied from 35 to 73 percent.
1. How do you expect your company’s sales to change in the next six months?
Sales
INCREASE
NO CHANGE
DECREASE
Q1 2004
83%
13%
4%
Q2 2004
80%
15%
4%
Q3 2004
71%
25%
4%
Q4 2004
77%
22%
1%
Q1 2005
78%
19%
3%
Q2 2005
75%
23%
2%
Q3 2005
74%
24%
2%
Q4 2005
72%
24%
4%
Q1 2006
78%
20%
2%
Q2 2006
78%
22%
0%
Q3 2006
69%
25%
6%
Q4 2006
73%
23%
4%
Q3 2008
51%
35%
14%
Q4 2008
27%
46%
27%
Q1 2009
33%
30%
37%
Q2 2009
41%
31%
28%
Q3 2009
34%
49%
17%
Q1 2010
63%
19%
18%
Q2 2010
69%
24%
7%
Q3 2010
59%
35%
6%
Q4 2010
71%
23%
6%
Q1 2011
73%
19%
8%
Q2 2011
61%
34%
5%
Q3 2011
62%
33%
5%
Q4 2011
64%
27%
9%
Point change from Q3 to Q4
2
-6
4
Totals may not equal 100 due to rounding.
2. How do you expect your company’s capital spending to change in the next six months?
Capital
INCREASE
NO CHANGE
DECREASE
Q1 2004
62%
30%
8%
Q2 2004
43%
41%
15%
Q3 2004
51%
42%
7%
Q4 2004
45%
46%
9%
Q1 2005
55%
37%
8%
Q2 2005
49%
43%
8%
Q3 2005
57%
38%
5%
Q4 2005
50%
35%
15%
Q1 2006
45%
45%
10%
Q2 2006
53%
40%
7%
Q3 2006
40%
50%
10%
Q4 2006
56%
39%
5%
Q3 2008
38%
42%
20%
Q4 2008
17 %
43%
40%
Q1 2009
12%
38%
50%
Q2 2009
17%
51%
32%
Q3 2009
31%
46%
23%
Q1 2010
50%
42%
8%
Q2 2010
51%
38%
11%
Q3 2010
37%
48%
15%
Q4 2010
49%
34%
17%
Q1 2011
47%
38%
15%
Q2 2011
46%
44%
10%
Q3 2011
39%
58%
3%
Q4 2011
40%
54%
6%
Point change from Q3 to Q4
1
-4
3
Totals may not equal 100 due to rounding.
3. How do you expect your company’s employment to change in the next six months?
Employment
INCREASE
NO CHANGE
DECREASE
Q1 2004
57%
38%
4%
Q2 2004
50%
48%
2%
Q3 2004
59%
37%
4%
Q4 2004
58%
39%
3%
Q1 2005
55%
38%
7%
Q2 2005
49%
42%
9%
Q3 2005
49%
44%
7%
Q4 2005
60%
35%
5%
Q1 2006
54%
39%
7%
Q2 2006
50%
45%
5%
Q3 2006
43%
49%
7%
Q4 2006
53%
41%
5%
Q3 2008
40%
42%
18%
Q4 2008
25%
35%
40%
Q1 2009
23%
37%
40%
Q2 2009
21%
50%
29%
Q3 2009
34%
46%
20%
Q1 2010
40%
52%
8%
Q2 2010
46%
45%
9%
Q3 2010
35%
52%
13%
Q4 2010
51%
38%
11%
Q1 2011
44%
41%
15%
Q2 2011
36%
53%
11%
Q3 2011
40%
50%
10%
Q4 2011
43%
49%
8%
Point change from Q3 to Q4
3
-1
-2
Totals may not equal 100 due to rounding.
The Roundtable is a nonprofit, nonpartisan organization of 118 CEOs ofVermont's top private and nonprofit employers, representing geographic diversity and all major sectors of theVermonteconomy, with an aggregate economic impact of $292 billion, over $1.8 billion in corporate philanthropy, and employing more than 10 percent of the state’s workforce. The Roundtable is committed to sustaining a sound economy and preservingVermont’s unique quality of life by studying and making recommendations on statewide public policy issues.