The Vermont Department of Labor announced today that the seasonally-adjusted statewide unemployment rate for October 2013 was 4.5 percent. This represents a decrease of one-tenth of a percent from the prior month’s estimate of 4.6 percent. The comparative national average was 7.3 percent which was up one-tenth of a percent from September. October 2013 data represents the first reported decrease to the statewide unemployment rate in Vermont in five months. As of the last available ranking (August 2013, 4.6 percent), Vermont’s unemployment rate was tied for fifth lowest in the country.
‘The Federal shutdown created significant disruption and uncertainty in the work of the state departments of labor, since much of our work relies upon the technical support and approval of the USDOL. As a result, the data and information that we regularly provide to Vermonters, our business community, and education and policy makers has been delayed. This is the first press release in two months. As reported here, Vermont employers are continuing to report job growth. The overall number of paid positions has increased, and Vermont seems to be moving forward to recapture the jobs lost during the last recession. By comparison, Vermont is faring much better than most other states. We are only about 2,000 jobs short of the high-number of jobs reported at the peak in June 2007’, said Labor Commissioner Annie Noonan.
The Vermont seasonally adjusted unemployment rate decreased by one-tenth of a percent to 4.5 percent in October. The comparable rate for the United States (7.3 percent) increased by one-tenth of a percent from the revised September estimate. The seasonally adjusted Vermont data for October show the Vermont civilian labor force decreased by 950 from the prior month estimates. The number of employed decreased by 650 and the number of unemployed decreased by 350. None of the over-the-month changes to the seasonally-adjusted series were statistically significant.
October unemployment rates for Vermont’s 17 labor market areas ranged from 2.7 percent in Warren-Waitsfield to 5.2 percent in Newport (note: local labor market area unemployment rates are not seasonally adjusted; SEE’ TABLE’ BELOW). For comparison, the October unadjusted unemployment rate for Vermont was 3.7 percent which reflects a decrease of six-tenths of a percent from the September level and a decline of seven-tenths of a percent from a year ago.
Not Seasonally Adjusted
The preliminary ‘not-seasonally-adjusted’ jobs estimates for October show an increase of 2,800 jobs when compared to the revised September numbers. Due to the Federal shutdown, preliminary September numbers were not generated making a comparison between the preliminary and revised September estimates impossible. The monthly increase seen in the October numbers was predominately attributable to seasonal increases in State and Local Government Education. The broader economic trends can be detected by focusing on the over-the-year changes in this data series. As detailed in the preliminary ‘not-seasonally-adjusted’ October data, Total Private industries have increased by 0.9 percent (2,200 jobs) and Government has increased by 0.6 percent (350 jobs) within the last year.
Seasonally Adjusted
The seasonally adjusted data for October reports an increase of 400 jobs from the revised September data. As with the ‘not-seasonally-adjusted’ data, there are no preliminary September estimates to compare against the revised September numbers due to the Federal shutdown. The seasonally adjusted over-the-month changes in October were varied at the sectorial level. Those with a notable percent increase include: Construction (600 jobs or 4.3 percent), Professional & Business Services (400 jobs or 1.5 percent) and Leisure & Hospitality (400 jobs or 1.2 percent). Sectors with notable percent declines include: Other Services (-300 jobs or -3.0 percent), Manufacturing (-600 jobs or -1.8 percent) and Trade, Transportation & Utilities (-500 jobs or -0.9 percent).
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IMPORTANT NOTE: Due to the Federal shutdown and temporary suspension of Bureau of Labor Statistics’ activities, the September press release originally scheduled for October 22nd was cancelled. Consequently, preliminary September estimates are not available. This press release reports preliminary October estimates and revised September data. Revised August data and all other historical data are available online at vtlmi.info.
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The Unemployment and Jobs Report for November is scheduled to be released on Friday, December 20, 2013 at 10 am.