Vermont Business Magazine The Personal Income Tax, the most important of Vermont's revenue sources, was again steeply lower than projections and is running behind for the fiscal year. The Corporate Tax, which has helped make up some of the difference, also fell back but continues to stay well ahead of targets. The consumption taxes showed mixed results, with the gasoline tax well behind again and in need of adjustment, the sales tax slightly ahead and rooms & meals off. The Lottery had a big month. Secretary of Administration Jeb Spaulding released the preliminary November fiscal year (FY) 2015 revenue results today.
Spaulding emphasized that, due to the long Thanksgiving week-end, some receipts that would otherwise have been credited to November will instead be credited to December. For the General Fund, that amount is likely in the range of $3.0 million. This difference affects the accuracy of comparisons to monthly targets and year over year performance.
General Fund (GF) revenues totaled $78.23 million for November 2014, -$6.72 million or –7.91% below the monthly tar-get. Year-to-date, GF receipts are $512.55 million, -$18.63 million or –3.51% below the cumulative target. They are $7.17 million or 1.42% above the year-to-date results of the prior fiscal year (FY 2014).
Secretary Spaulding commented, “The revenue picture this fiscal year continues to be difficult to interpret. The fact that Personal Income Tax receipts, the largest source of General Fund revenue, have underperformed every month since April, and are now almost $18 million below projection for the fiscal year, is of significant concern and a big reason why the Shumlin Administration is seeking to reduce State spending without delay. That said, there are indications that receipts from the Personal Income Tax component, as a whole, may recover somewhat before the fiscal year is over. Improving job and economic growth rates, as well as better than forecasted performance in consumption taxes, offsetting poor performance elsewhere, support this thinking. We strongly believe, however, it would be risky not to adjust spending downward at this time, given receipts to date and uncertainty about the road ahead.”
The Transportation Fund came in slightly less than projected for the month of November, finishing at $17.40 million, -$1.76 million, or –9.20% below its monthly target. On a cumulative basis, TF revenues were $106.54 million, -$0.77 mil-lion or –0.72% below the cumulative target. Compared to the prior fiscal year (FY 2014), TF revenues were $1.81 million or 1.73% ahead.
The Education Fund came in higher than budgeted for the month of November, finishing at $14.28 million, $0.64 million, or 4.71%, ahead of its monthly target. Year-to-date EF revenues were $1.11 million or 1.50% ahead of the cumulative target. In addition, EF revenues were $2.70 million or 3.72% higher than the prior fiscal year (FY 2014).
All three funds are running ahead of last year's totals to date, with even the PI tax ahead of FY14's total. The two line items notably running far behind expectations and year-to-year are the Gasoline and Insurance related taxes.