September tax revenues better, but Personal Income still struggling

Vermont Business Magazine Corporate tax revenue continued to do well and helped offset another sluggish month for the Personal Income tax, leading to a slightly positive result for Vermont's overall revenues in September. The General Fund was up 1.17 percent for the month, the Transportation Fund was up 3.7 percent and the Education Fund was up 2.08 percent. The Corporate results were not enough, however, to make up for slowness earlier in the summer, which have put the state General Fund revenues behind its target so far this fiscal year, which began July 1. The Transportation and Education Funds, on the other hand, are ahead of fiscal year expectations, albeit slightly. Secretary of Administration Jeb Spaulding released the preliminary September and first quarter fiscal year 2015 revenue results today for the General, Transportation, and Education Funds.

Along with the Personal Income Tax, which is the most important single revenue source for the state, the Gasoline Tax is not only below targets for the month and fiscal year, it is well below the actual revenues from a year ago, which makes it the only major revenue source lagging behind year-to-year.

General Fund revenues totaled $137.70 million for September 2014, $1.59 million or 1.17% above the monthly target and $9.07 million or 7.10% ahead of receipts for September 2013. Year-to-date, through the first quarter of the fiscal year, GF receipts are $327.06 million, -$3.83 million or –1.16% below the cumulative target and $10.76 million or 3.40% above the first quarter results of the prior fiscal year.

Spaulding said, “I’m pleased that we exceeded the forecasted monthly targets for the three major funds, but what I find most encouraging is that all four of the large General Fund revenue sources were up significantly this September compared to the same month last year: Personal Income Tax +8.1%, Sales & Use Tax +3.8%, Corporate Income Tax +5.3%, and Rooms & Meals Tax +6.9%. That is positive as an economic barometer. From a budgetary perspective, September’s results allowed us to cut into the cumulative GF projection shortfall for the fiscal year, though we remain $3.83 million behind. We will be watching personal income tax receipts carefully in the next couple of months, as this component continues to lag expectation and could be a cause for a revenue projection downgrade in January.”

The Transportation Fund came in higher than projected for the month of September, finishing at $24.19 million, $0.86 million, or 3.70% ahead of its monthly target. On a cumulative basis, TF revenues were $66.15 million, $0.18 million or 0.27% above the cumulative target. Compared to the prior fiscal year (FY 2014), TF revenues were $2.12 million or 3.31% ahead.

The Education Fund also came in higher than budgeted for the month of September, finishing at $0.31 million, or 2.08%, ahead of its monthly target. Year-to-date EF revenues were $0.54 million or 1.22% ahead of the cumulative target. In addition, EF revenues were $1.49 million or 3.44% higher than the prior fiscal year (FY 2014).