by Evangelos Otto Simos The VBM/e-forecasting.com VT Leading Economic Indicator, Vermont's early bird of economic activity, increased in November 2013 to a reading of 121.2 where 2000 is set equal to 100.
The private forecasting service said the composite Vermont index of state leading indicators, which is produced jointly with Vermont Business Magazine, increased 0.2 percent in November following an increase of 0.3 percent in October.
Seven of the nine components that make up Vermont's Leading Indicator had a positive contribution in November: Unemployment Claims, Exports of Manufactures, Consumer Expectations (Regional), Stock Prices (National), Interest Rate Spread, Technology Index (National), and Canadian Outlook. Two of the nine components had a negative contribution to Vermont's Leading Indicator in November: Weekly Hours in Manufacturing, and Building Permits.
Looking at its six-month growth rate, a signal of turning points, Vermont's Leading Indicator recorded a six month growth rate of 3.4 percent in November, edging up from October rate of 3.3 percent. This compares to a long-term annual growth rate of 1.5 percent, the same as the annual growth rate of the state's overall economic activity.
Highlights
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Vermont's early bird of economic activity increased in November 2013 to a reading of 121.2 (2000=100).
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Following in October an increase of 0.3 percent, Vermont's Leading Indicator rose by 0.2 percent in November.
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Seven of the nine components that make up Vermont's Leading Indicator had a positive contribution in November: Unemployment Claims, Exports of Manufactures, Consumer Expectations (Regional), Stock Prices (National), Interest Rate Spread, Technology Index (National), Canadian Outlook,
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Two of the nine components had a negative contribution to Vermont's Leading Indicator in November: Weekly Hours in Manufacturing, Building Permits,
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Looking at its six-month growth rate, a signal of turning points, Vermont's Leading Indicator went up by an annual rate of 3.4 percent in November, after an increase of 3.3 percent in October. This compares to a long-term annual growth rate of 1.5 percent, the same as the annual growth rate of the state's overall economic activity.
Evangelos Simos, chief economic adviser of the consulting and research firm e’forecasting.com, is editor for International Affairs in the Journal of Business Forecasting, and professor of economics at the Paul College of Business and Economics, University of New Hampshire. Distributed by e’forecasting.com. Dr. Simos can be reached at [email protected].