by Timothy McQuiston Vermont Business Magazine Despite no change in Vermont’s unemployment rate for October, the seasonally adjusted supporting numbers are actually worse, as there was a loss in both the workforce and the number of employed. However, there was no change in the number of unemployed. The Vermont Department of Labor announced today that the seasonally-adjusted statewide unemployment rate for October was 3.7 percent. This is the same as the revised September rate (3.7 percent). The national average in October was 5.0 percent. Vermont remains tied for eighth lowest in the nation and second lowest east of the Mississippi; New Hampshire's rate is 3.3 percent.
The seasonally-adjusted Vermont data for October show the Vermont civilian labor force decreased by 2,050 from the prior month estimate. The number of employed decreased by 2,050 and the number of unemployed did not change. The over-the-month changes to the number of employed and the labor force were statistically significant in the seasonally-adjusted series.
As of the prior month’s initial data, Vermont’s unemployment rate was eighth lowest in the country. October represents the ninth consecutive month of the seasonally-adjusted statewide unemployment rate being below 4 percent.
“This month's numbers are an interesting mix. Many Vermont employers are continuing to grow, with over a thousand jobs added this past month alone; however this growth is not without its challenges. As the unemployment rate has declined, and the number of 'baby-boomers' moving towards retirement has increased, the Vermont labor market has tightened. Vermont employers looking to hire continue to report difficulties in recruiting for their vacancies. At this point, we are examining whether this month's more significant decline in the labor force is an anomaly or underscores a more systemic trend. Our approach to a reduced labor force has to be multi-faceted, including greater outreach to students and workers here in Vermont, as well as regionally and nationally, and to significantly increase funding for programs that will train - or retrain - Vermonters for the jobs that match the employers' openings. These job openings reflect a wide array of industries, occupations, education and skill levels. Job seekers in Vermont have tremendous opportunities today, and the Vermont Department of Labor and our partner agencies can assist them with skill assessment, work readiness, remedial education, labor-market information, training, job counseling and development and placement. The Vermont Department of Labor’s 12 regional Career Resource Centers’ staff are available to help Vermont workers and businesses connect. Stop into a VDOL Career Center for help”, said Labor Commissioner Annie Noonan.
October unemployment rates for Vermont’s 17 labor market areas ranged from 2.5 percent in Burlington-South Burlington to 4.9 percent in Derby (note: local labor market area unemployment rates are not seasonally-adjusted). For comparison, the October unadjusted unemployment rate for Vermont was 3.2 percent which reflects a decrease of seven-tenths of a percentage point from the revised unadjusted September level and a decrease of three-tenths of a percentage point from a year ago.
Not-Seasonally-Adjusted
The preliminary ‘not-seasonally-adjusted’ jobs estimates for October show an increase of 4,300 jobs when compared to the revised September numbers. There was no change between the preliminary and the revised September estimates due to the inclusion of more data. The monthly increase seen in the October numbers was attributable to seasonal increases related to public education. The broader economic trends can be detected by focusing on the over-the-year changes in this data series. As detailed in the preliminary ‘not-seasonally-adjusted’ October data, Total Private industries have increased by 1,500 jobs (0.6 percent) and Government employment has increased by 1,100 jobs (1.9 percent) in the past year.
Seasonally-Adjusted
The seasonally-adjusted data for October reports an increase of 1,100 jobs from the revised September data. As with the ‘not-seasonally-adjusted’ data, this over-the-month change is from the revised September numbers which experienced a 100 job increase from the preliminary estimates. The seasonally-adjusted over-the-month changes in October were varied at the sectorial level. Those with a notable percent increase include: State Government (+800 jobs or +4.1%), Financial Activities (+300 jobs or +2.5%), and Private Education Services (+200 jobs or +1.5%). Industries with a notable percent decrease include: Leisure & Hospitality (-700 jobs or -1.9%) and Manufacturing (-100 jobs or -0.3%).
NOTE: Employment (nonfarm payroll)- A count of all persons who worked full- or part-time or received pay from a nonagricultural employer for any part of the pay period which included the 12th of the month. Because this count comes from a survey of employers, persons who work for two different companies would be counted twice. Therefore, nonfarm payroll employment is really a count of the number of jobs, rather than the number of persons employed. Persons may receive pay from a job if they are temporarily absent due to illness, bad weather, vacation, or labor-management dispute. This count is based on where the jobs are located, regardless of where the workers reside, and is therefore sometimes referred to as employment "by place of work." Nonfarm payroll employment data are collected and compiled based on the Current Employment Statistics (CES) survey, conducted by the Vermont Department of Labor. This count was formerly referred to as nonagricultural wage and salary employment.
| Unemployment Rates for States Monthly Rankings Seasonally Adjusted Oct. 2015p |
||
|---|---|---|
| Rank | State | Rate |
| 1 | NORTH DAKOTA | 2.8 |
| 2 | NEBRASKA | 2.9 |
| 3 | SOUTH DAKOTA | 3.2 |
| 4 | HAWAII | 3.3 |
| 4 | NEW HAMPSHIRE | 3.3 |
| 6 | IOWA | 3.5 |
| 7 | UTAH | 3.6 |
| 8 | MINNESOTA | 3.7 |
| 8 | VERMONT | 3.7 |
| 10 | COLORADO | 3.8 |
| 11 | IDAHO | 4.0 |
| 11 | WYOMING | 4.0 |
| 13 | KANSAS | 4.1 |
| 13 | MONTANA | 4.1 |
| 15 | VIRGINIA | 4.2 |
| 16 | MAINE | 4.3 |
| 16 | OKLAHOMA | 4.3 |
| 16 | WISCONSIN | 4.3 |
| 19 | INDIANA | 4.4 |
| 19 | OHIO | 4.4 |
| 19 | TEXAS | 4.4 |
| 22 | MASSACHUSETTS | 4.6 |
| 23 | NEW YORK | 4.8 |
| 24 | KENTUCKY | 4.9 |
| 25 | MICHIGAN | 5.0 |
| 25 | MISSOURI | 5.0 |
| 27 | ARKANSAS | 5.1 |
| 27 | CONNECTICUT | 5.1 |
| 27 | DELAWARE | 5.1 |
| 27 | FLORIDA | 5.1 |
| 27 | MARYLAND | 5.1 |
| 27 | PENNSYLVANIA | 5.1 |
| 33 | WASHINGTON | 5.2 |
| 34 | RHODE ISLAND | 5.3 |
| 35 | ILLINOIS | 5.4 |
| 35 | NEW JERSEY | 5.4 |
| 37 | SOUTH CAROLINA | 5.6 |
| 37 | TENNESSEE | 5.6 |
| 39 | GEORGIA | 5.7 |
| 39 | NORTH CAROLINA | 5.7 |
| 41 | CALIFORNIA | 5.8 |
| 42 | ALABAMA | 5.9 |
| 42 | MISSISSIPPI | 5.9 |
| 44 | OREGON | 6.0 |
| 45 | ARIZONA | 6.1 |
| 46 | LOUISIANA | 6.2 |
| 47 | ALASKA | 6.4 |
| 48 | DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA | 6.6 |
| 48 | NEVADA | 6.6 |
| 50 | NEW MEXICO | 6.8 |
| 51 | WEST VIRGINIA | 6.9 |
p = preliminary.
NOTE: Rates shown are a percentage of the labor force. Data refer to place of residence. Estimates for the current month are subject to revision the following month.