by Mike Smith Former Wall Street executive and Vermont native Bruce Lisman announced last week he would be seeking the Republican nomination for governor of Vermont. He surprised some observers by opting to run as a Republican instead of an independent. While it’s no surprise Lisman leans right of center, he’s gone to great lengths to position his Campaign for Vermont organization as nonpartisan. Some assumed he was trying to avoid the confines of party politics.
Had Lisman chosen to run as an independent there was fear among Republicans and some moderate Democrats that he would siphon votes away from likely Republican gubernatorial candidate Phil Scott, handing the general election to the Democrats.
It is said that the potential of being a spoiler weighed on Lisman, who believes strongly that Vermont’s economic policies and state government require substantial improvement. And that’s why he chose the path that he did.
By running as a Republican and going head-to-head with Scott in a primary, he can advance his ideas, help set the agenda, take his shot at winning the top job in government and, he may believe, avoid handing the election to the Democrats. There’s some merit to this analysis.
But Lisman may have put himself into a situation where the only way to avoid the label of spoiler is being elected Vermont’s next governor.
Democrats have two, and possibly three, candidates running for governor and a primary on the Republican side isn’t necessarily bad news for Scott. Primaries generate attention for campaigns and help establish and hone a candidate’s message and operations for the general election. This is all to Phil Scott’s advantage.
Though Scott is probably breathing a sigh of relief that Lisman is running as a Republican, he undoubtedly would have preferred an opponent like Dan Feliciano (a spoiler in the 2014 election), given the personal wealth Lisman can inject into the race.
Lisman will force Scott to raise and spend precious financial resources in the primary. Scott, while a co-owner of a small construction business, is not a wealthy man, certainly not as wealthy as Lisman. His campaign could be hobbled by an expensive primary.
In this scenario, if Scott beats Lisman in the primary but the fight drains Scott’s resources to the point where he cannot be competitive in the general election, Lisman could shoulder some of the blame and be considered the spoiler. Conversely, Lisman could overwhelm Scott with his financial resources and win the primary and then lose the general election. In this case, many Vermonters would accuse Lisman of beating out the only viable candidate to bring the change they seek. Any future opportunity for Lisman to change the direction of his native state would certainly vanish.
Given these scenarios, the only way Lisman would not be considered some type of spoiler is one where he is elected governor. At this point in time that outcome is a long shot.
Lisman has little name recognition — although he can buy it in short order — and his Achilles heel is his long and accomplished career on Wall Street that ended in a crisis that nearly toppled the global economy.
Unfortunately for Lisman, campaigns are often won and lost in sound bites. Long debates about complex policy issues — where he might excel — rarely occur. Given the national emphasis on income inequality — and perceptions of Wall Street’s responsibility in creating it — he is at a substantial disadvantage. It is easy for people to label him as part of the problem and not the solution. It will be difficult for Lisman to position himself as the candidate to solve our economic challenges when many blame his industry for helping to create them.
Of course, if Lisman doesn’t get traction in the Republican primary and running is more important to him then winning, he could file to run as an independent just days before the Republican primary. That would assuredly dash his hopes of bringing about the change he says he believes in and the enthusiasm and good will of his most ardent supporters. That scenario is unlikely, but possible. Look for Republicans to seek a pledge from Lisman that he will go the distance in the primary and support the nominee should he lose.
Very few jump from the private sector to the top position in the state. A stop in between is more typical, although not required, as Governor Deane Davis showed. But Davis was the CEO of a Vermont company, and Lisman was the head of a global division of a Wall Street firm taken down by the crash its own bets helped to precipitate.
Make no mistake, Bruce Lisman is a very bright and successful man; his commitment to making Vermont a better and more affordable place to live is undeniable; but his timing to make a run for governor is off, given the mood of the country and the state.
Many Americans have not recovered from the financial crisis and some are still underwater. But Wall Street enjoyed a relatively quick rebound and had reached, until recently, record highs. No amount of populist rhetoric or sincere intentions will offset these facts of political life.
Mike Smith was the secretary of administration and secretary of human services under former Governor Jim Douglas. He is the host of the new radio program “Open Mike with Mike Smith” on WDEV. He is also a political analyst for WCAX-TV and WVMT radio and is a regular contributor to the Times Argus/Rutland Herald and Vermont Business Magazine.