by Mike Smith A recent poll by a New Hampshire media outlet must be worrisome to the Hillary Clinton campaign. WMUR’s Granite State Poll conducted by the University of New Hampshire shows Vermont’s junior U.S. senator, Bernie Sanders, closing in on Clinton, 42 to 36 percent. Sanders is surging in Iowa, too, but Clinton still has a commanding lead, according to a July NBC/Marist poll showing Clinton with support from 49 percent of Democrats to Sanders’ 25 percent.
The trend is what should be disconcerting to the Clinton camp. They are well aware that victories in early primary states are essential in order to create momentum going into later primaries. In fact, Clinton’s opponent in 2008, then Sen. Barack Obama, had his breakout moment by winning the Iowa caucuses, coming in a strong second in New Hampshire, and then winning South Carolina.
Nationally, Sanders seems to be stuck. He is hovering between 16 and 22 percent of Democrats supporting his candidacy for president. Clinton, on the other hand, has a commanding lead with approximately 51 percent supporting her candidacy. But her support is slipping, as Democrats get increasingly concerned about her ability to win and the number of Democrats with an unfavorable opinion of her continues to rise.
Some speculate that Sanders will have a low ceiling—a point where his support among Democrats is unable to rise further. This would be a major problem for his campaign. However, equally troublesome to the Clinton camp is the possibility that she doesn’t have a floor—a point beyond which her support will not fall.
It is obvious that Sanders’s strategy mirrors Obama’s in 2008—win those early primaries and create momentum. That’s why he is so focused on Iowa and New Hampshire, all the while trying to generate enthusiasm—and free media coverage—by drawing large crowds in generally liberal bastions elsewhere.
But in order for Sanders to have a larger impact outside of Iowa and New Hampshire he has to broaden his appeal. That is why you see him trying to attract the votes of minorities, especially African-American voters in the South, who are critical to winning the Democrat nomination and who seem particularly loyal to Hillary Clinton.
He needs to do other things as well.
America is discovering something Vermonters have known for years. When Bernie Sanders disagrees with an opponent’s position he frequently describes it as “outrageous.” It’s Bernie’s trademark word. He can’t get through a speech or an interview without uttering it about something or somebody, usually multiple times.
The problem for Bernie is the overuse of that word takes away its impact when pointing out something that is truly outrageous. Bernie is at risk of becoming the left’s Donald Trump, an angry caricature that does not appeal to moderate primary voters. You can see it in the comic exaggerations and in his recent appearance on the national news show, “Meet the Press.”
“Meet the Press” gave America a glimpse of the real Bernie Sanders — thin skinned and easily irritated. He is quickly annoyed by having to answer questions he doesn’t want or like. In Vermont we are used to that — part of his “charm,” we might say. But being prickly with the national press, with America watching, is risky business. That’s why his campaign has tried to moderate his image without extinguishing his firebrand style. It is a delicate balancing act, with a not-so-delicate candidate.
There is no doubt that Bernie Sanders has forced Hillary Clinton further to the left in the primary. But winning the nomination is still clearly a long shot for Sanders and very likely depends on how low Hillary sinks, more than how high Bernie can rise.
Mike Smith was secretary of administration under former Gov. Jim Douglas. He is a political analyst for WCAX-TV and WVMT radio and a regular contributor to the Times Argus, Rutland Herald and Vermont Business Magazine.