by Mike Smith Political announcements from several Democrats should be coming soon. The word is that Vermont House Speaker Shap Smith will announce this month that he intends to run for governor. Matt Dunne is reportedly very busy working the phones, calling around measuring support for a run too. And Governor Peter Shumlin is said to be discreetly calling Democrats promoting his secretary of transportation, Sue Minter, who is also working to coalesce support for a campaign.
Minter has been raising her press profile lately and leveraging her position as the state’s secretary of transportation by appearing In the news with much more frequency. And, at recent events, she has changed her tone in a way that caused Vermonters of both parties to take notice: engaging in red-hot political rhetoric more common in Washington, DC, than in Vermont. This change in tune is most certainly an effort to appeal to partisan Democrats. Given the list of Democrats vying for the top job, she will face a primary. Appealing to the liberal base is critical.
This strategy poses interesting challenges for Minter.
First, she’s a state official and, just seven months ago, Shumlin appointed her secretary of transportation. In this role she oversees one of state government’s most fundamental and operationally focused agencies. Traditionally, the transportation secretary has avoided partisan politics because managing the state’s transportation infrastructure requires collaborative work with both Democrats and Republicans in the Legislature.
Second, the chairs of the House and Senate transportation committees are moderates, not firebrand partisans. They have conducted deliberations within their respective committees on a non-partisan basis.
They are laser focused on the work of the agency, ensuring adequate state funding to meet our infrastructure challenges. It’s unlikely they would tolerate efforts to use the agency for personal political gain.
Becoming more partisan, as Minter has, may be great for attracting Democrat primary voters in a statewide office run, but it may impede the agency, its employees and the Vermonters they serve. And on a political note — since this is about politics after all — it will turn off independent voters in a general election.
Of course, if Minter believes her ticket to statewide office is to ratchet up her partisan rhetoric, then a way to keep the agency out of the politics and the inevitable fallout would be for her to resign. In fact, that may be the best possible course for her to follow if she is serious about a statewide run.
Being closely tied to an unpopular governor poses problems for her. The perception of a fourth Shumlin-like term may not appeal to voters.
Shap Smith has a similar problem. As speaker Smith allowed, even supported, many of the policies that made Shumlin unpopular with Vermonters. It may be that Matt Dunne is the only candidate who can claim independence from the governor, but his voting record as a legislator indicates support for policies similar to Shumlin’s.
For the Republicans, it’s a simpler situation.
All eyes are on Phil Scott, the moderate lieutenant governor. If he decides to run for governor it is likely he would clear the primary field of credible contenders (some fringe candidates may still get in), just as U.S. Congressman Peter Welch would have done on the Democratic side if he had chosen to run for governor. Scott has been working behind the scenes too, and has been seen at many summer events and parades receiving encouragement from Vermonters to make his run official. Many expect he will run for governor, and Scott has certainly given the impression that he is moving in that direction.
One thing is certain: By this fall we should know who is running for governor, a full year before the election.
This is to be expected. In political terms this is a relatively short period of time to put a campaign plan together, gather supporters, and raise as much as $2 million needed to win the election for governor.
So the speculation of who is in and who is not, should be over very soon.
Mike Smith was the secretary of administration under former Governor Jim Douglas. He is a political analyst for WCAX-TV and WVMT radio and is a regular contributor to The Times Argus, where this piece originally appeared.