Vermont Business Magazine Uncertainty continued in February over Vermont’s revenues, as refunding activity skewed, for better or worse, results for the vital Personal Income Tax and for the Corporate Tax. Meanwhile, consumption taxes were disappointing in what is an important tourism month.
Secretary of Administration Justin Johnson today released the preliminary February fiscal year (FY) 2015 revenue results for the General, Transportation, and Education Funds. The revenue targets are based on the Consensus Revenue Forecast adopted by the Vermont Emergency Board on January 20, 2015.
Preliminary General Fund (GF) revenues totaled $71.25 million for February 2015, +$8.22 million or +13.05 percent above the monthly target. Year-to-date, GF receipts are $868.59 million, +$6.95 million or +0.81 percent above the cumulative target. The results are +$34.95 million or +4.19 percent above the year-to-date results of the prior fiscal year (FY 2014).
Secretary Johnson said, “Now that we have entered the tax filing season, it is good to see the February results coming in stronger than forecasted. We are also now 4.19 percent ahead of last year’s receipts to the general fund, a sign of an economy continuing to strengthen. However, we should remember that Personal Income Tax receipts in February were driven by the week moratorium on refunding activity for individuals. We are sure to see higher refunding activity in March. In contrast to personal income tax receipts, Corporate Income Taxes fell short for the month due to increased refunding activity, even though they remain above target YTD. We also need to keep an eye on February’s underperformance in consumption tax receipts, though the short month may have contributed to the lag (Sales and Use, -4.74 percent; Meals & Rooms, -1.48 percent).”
The Transportation Fund (TF) results were, again, below target for February. Preliminary TF revenues finished at $16.20 million, -$1.11 million, or –6.39 percent short of the target. On a cumulative basis, TF revenues were $163.41 million, -$1.23 million or –0.75 percent below the cumulative target. Compared to the prior fiscal year (FY 2014), TF revenues were +$3.53 million or 2.21 percent ahead.
The Education Fund (EF) exceeded the monthly target for February 2015. Preliminary EF revenue finished at $13.48 million, +$0.47 million, or +3.64 percent, ahead of its monthly target. Year-to-date EF revenues were $122.43 million or +0.22 percent above the cumulative target.
As compared to the prior fiscal year, January EF results were +$4.56 million or +3.87 percent higher than the same period for FY 2014.
Johnson said in conclusion, “March will provide some indication, but April - as the largest single month - is the true indicator of where revenues will end up for this fiscal year. We look forward to tracking the results as we move through the income tax filing season.”