Home prices in Vermont have been fairly stagnant over the last year. For mostVermonters, this is not a surprising result. According to a national reporting firm, Vermont home prices rose 2.1 percent in 2014 when not including distressed sales. The national average is 4.9 percent. When distressed sales are included, Vermont was next to last in the US with a negative 0.9 percent (US average plus 5.0 percent).Vermont saw fewer bad mortgages than most other states during the Great Recession, but has been slower coming out of the downturn.
CoreLogic(NYSE: CLGX), a leading global property information, analytics and data-enabled services provider, has released itsDecember 2014CoreLogic Home Price Index (HPI) which shows that home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, increased 5 percent inDecember 2014compared toDecember 2013. This change represents 34 months of consecutive year-over-year increases in home prices nationally. On a month-over-month basis, home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, fell by 0.1 percent inDecember 2014compared toNovember 2014.*
Twenty-seven states and theDistrict of Columbiaare at or within 10 percent of their peak. Three states showed year-over-year home price depreciation, including distressed sales, in December; these states wereMaryland(-0.7 percent),Vermont(-0.9 percent) andConnecticut(-2.2 percent).
Excluding distressed sales, home prices increased 4.9 percent inDecember 2014compared toDecember 2013and increased 0.1 percent month over month compared toNovember 2014. Distressed sales include short sales and real estate owned (REO) transactions.
The CoreLogic HPI Forecastindicates that home prices, including distressed sales, are projected to increase 0.1 percent month over month fromDecember 2014toJanuary 2015. Full-year 2015 (December to December) increase is projected to be 4.8 percent**. Excluding distressed sales, home prices are also expected to increase by 0.1 percent month over month fromDecember 2014toJanuary 2015and increase by 4.5 percent** year over year fromDecember 2014toDecember 2015. The CoreLogic HPI Forecast is a monthly projection of home prices using the CoreLogic HPI and other economic variables. Values are derived from state-level forecasts by weighting indices according to the number of owner-occupied households for each state.
"For the full year of 2014, home prices increased 7.4 percent, down from an 11.1-percent increase in 2013," saidSam Khater, deputy chief economist at CoreLogic. "Nationally, home price growth moderated and stabilized at 5 percent the last four months of the year. The moderation can be clearly seen at the state level, withColorado,TexasandNew Yorkat the high end of appreciation, ending the year with increases of about 8 percent. This contrasts with previous appreciation rates in the double digits—for instance,NevadaandCaliforniawhich experienced increases of more than 20 percent earlier in 2014."
"Nationally, home price appreciation took a pause in November andDecember 2014and we expect a slow start to 2015," saidAnand Nallathambi, president and CEO of CoreLogic. "As the year progresses, we expect upward pressure as low inventories and more first-time buyers drive up home prices."
STATE WITH DISTRESSED WITHOUT DISTRESSED
Highlights as ofDecember 2014:
- Including distressed sales, the five states with the highest home price appreciation were: Colorado (+8.4 percent),Texas(+7.8 percent),New York(+7.6 percent),Nevada(+7.3 percent) andMichigan(+7.2 percent).
- Excluding distressed sales, the five states with the highest home price appreciation were:New York(+8.0 percent),Colorado(+7.8 percent),Massachusetts(+7.2 percent),Texas(+7.1 percent) andNevada(+7.1 percent).
- Including distressed transactions, the peak-to-current change in the national HPI (fromApril 2006toDecember 2014) was -13.4 percent. Excluding distressed transactions, the peak-to-current change in the HPI for the same period was -9.6 percent.
- Including distressed sales, the five-year HPI change (fromDecember 2009toDecember 2014) was 18.9 percent.
- The five states with the largest peak-to-current declines, including distressed transactions, were:Nevada(-36 percent),Florida(-33.5 percent),Arizona(-29.5 percent),Rhode Island(-29.1 percent) andConnecticut(-25.2 percent).
- Including distressed sales, the U.S. has experienced 34 consecutive months of year-over-year increases; however, the national increase is no longer posting double-digits.
- Eighty-nine of the top 100 Core Based Statistical Areas (CBSAs) measured by population showed year-over-year increases inDecember 2014. The 11 CBSAs that showed year-over-year declines were:Worcester, MA-CT (-2.5 percent);Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk, CT(-2.3 percent);Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD(-1.9 percent);Memphis, TN-MS-AR (-1.1 percent);McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX(-1.0 percent);New Haven-Milford, CT(-0.9 percent);Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway, AR(-0.8 percent);Winston-Salem, NC(-0.6 percent);Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford, CT(-0.4 percent);Rochester, NY(-0.2 percent) andWilmington, DE-MD-NJ (-0.03 percent).
*November data was revised. Revisions with public records data are standard, and to ensure accuracy, CoreLogic incorporates the newly released public data to provide updated results.
** The forecast accuracy represents a 95-percent statistical confidence interval with a +/- 2.0 percent margin of error for the index including distressed sales and a +/- 1.9 percent margin of error for the index excluding distressed sales.
Methodology
The CoreLogic HPI™incorporates more than 30 years' worth of repeat sales transactions, representing more than 65 million observations sourced from CoreLogic industry-leading property information and its securities and servicing databases. The CoreLogic HPI provides a multi-tier market evaluation based on price, time between sales, property type, loan type (conforming vs. nonconforming) and distressed sales. The CoreLogic HPI is a repeat-sales index that tracks increases and decreases in sales prices for the same homes over time, including single-familyattachedand single-familydetachedhomes, which provides a more accurate "constant-quality" view of pricing trends than basing analysis on all home sales. The CoreLogic HPI provides the most comprehensive set of monthly home price indices available covering 7257 ZIP codes (60 percent of total U.S. population), 654 Core Based Statistical Areas (89 percent of total U.S. population) and 1,279 counties (85 percent of total U.S. population) located in all 50 states and theDistrict of Columbia. Forecast ranges provided in this report are based on a 95 percent confidence interval.
Source: CoreLogic
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About CoreLogic
CoreLogic (NYSE: CLGX) is a leading global property information, analytics and data-enabled services provider. The company's combined data from public, contributory and proprietary sources includes over 3.5 billion records spanning more than 40 years, providing detailed coverage of property, mortgages and other encumbrances, consumer credit, tenancy, location, hazard risk and related performance information. The markets CoreLogic serves include real estate and mortgage finance, insurance, capital markets, and the public sector. CoreLogic delivers value to clients through unique data, analytics, workflow technology, advisory and managed services. Clients rely on CoreLogic to help identify and manage growth opportunities, improve performance and mitigate risk. Headquartered inIrvine, Calif., CoreLogic operates inNorth America,Western EuropeandAsia Pacific. For more information, please visitwww.corelogic.com.
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