by Mike Smith Republican Phil Scott will be Vermont’s next governor. Scott won his bid to be Vermont’s 82nd governor by handily defeating his Democratic rival, Sue Minter. What made Scott’s victory especially impressive is that he won in a presidential election year when voter turnout in Vermont was supposed to favor Democrats. Scott was elected because he is well liked and trusted by Vermonters. He recognized early on that Vermonters were concerned about the economy, especially the cost of living in this state as well as the importance of attracting higher paying jobs, and he made these issues the centerpiece of his campaign.
In contrast, Sue Minter lost because she never fully grasped the importance of these economic concerns; or if she did, she was never able to connect with Vermonters in a way to ease their concerns. She also made other critical errors.
Winning an election is all about building coalitions, and Minter alienated two important constituencies. She was forceful in her desire to add more restrictions on the purchase of guns and in advocating for more industrial windmills on Vermont’s ridgelines. These positions helped her win the Democratic primary, but in the general election gun owners and those Vermonters who sought more input into the siting process of industrial wind projects — two powerful groups — sided with Scott.
In addition, Minter was never able, nor did she try, to untether herself from an unpopular governor. Gov. Peter Shumlin promised much during his tenure as the state’s chief executive but was never able to deliver on those promises in a way that satisfied many Vermonters. This had a negative impact on Minter’s campaign.
And lastly, Minter relied too heavily on national issues and national political figures in her effort to win this election. She failed to recognize that Vermonters seldom vote for their governor based on national issues, or who is endorsing her, even if the endorsements are from prominent and popular national figures like Sen. Bernie Sanders or President Barack Obama. Vermonters are more interested in how a candidate for governor is going to solve state and local problems.
Trying to turn Vermont’s governor’s race into a referendum on national issues is where Planned Parenthood of Northern New England got it wrong as well. Phil Scott is a Republican but is much different in his politics and policies than his national party. Efforts to link Scott to the national Republican Party were unlikely to succeed. Yet Planned Parenthood failed to recognize this and ran negative ads against Phil Scott — who is pro-choice and actually supportive of their organization — trying to label him as a Republican in lock-step with the national Republican Party, when most Vermonters knew otherwise.
These negative attack ads may have caused more damage to the reputation of Planned Parenthood of Northern New England than to Phil Scott. The attack ads were viewed as unfair and partisan and angered Vermonters, including those who were supportive of Planned Parenthood. The perception of the organization has certainly changed in the eyes of many Vermonters, at least in the short-term. Nowadays, Planned Parenthood may be more commonly perceived as a partisan political organization rather than a much-needed nonpartisan women’s health-care organization. Planned Parenthood of Northern New England was a loser in this election cycle because some Vermonters have lost trust in its priorities.
On the other hand, WCAX-TV was a winner. It aired the most informative political debate between Minter and Scott, and it came closest to predicting the outcome of the governor’s race with a political poll that it commissioned.
With this election now behind us, Vermonters expect their new governor to address their economic concerns. And if Gov.-elect Phil Scott can do that, then every Vermonter will feel that they have won.
Mike Smith is the host of the radio program, “Open Mike with Mike Smith,” on WDEV 550 AM and 96.1, 96.5, 98.3 and 101.9 FM. He is also a political analyst for WCAX-TV and WVMT radio and is a regular contributor to Vermont Business Magazine, The Times Argus and Rutland Herald. He was the secretary of administration and secretary of human services under former Governor Jim Douglas.