Vermont Business Magazine The Vermont Department of Labor announced today that the seasonally-adjusted statewide unemployment rate for October was 3.3 percent. This reflects no change from the revised September rate. The national rate in October was 4.9 percent. The seasonally-adjusted Vermont data for October show the Vermont civilian labor force decreased by 550 from the prior month’s revised estimate. Typical of this time of year, adjusted and unadjusted (actual) numbers appear to be headed in the opposite direction, with seasonally adjusted jobs falling for the third consecutive month and unadjusted numbers increasing.
Meanwhile, seasonally adjusted, the number of employed decreased by 400 and the number of unemployed decreased by 200. None of the over-the-month changes were statistically significant in the seasonally adjusted series.
Overall, Vermont’s unemployment rate was tied for sixth lowest in the country. New Hampshire was tied for first with South Dakota at 2.8 percent (SEE TABLE BELOW). As of the prior month’s initial data, the Burlington-South Burlington Metropolitan NECTA was tied for the 19th lowest unemployment rate in the country for all metropolitan areas at 2.9 percent (not-seasonally-adjusted).
“We were pleased that the monthly unemployment rate held steady, particularly as we approach the traditionally-higher seasonal period for unemployment claims, as we start to see the slow-down in outside construction and landscaping,” said Labor Commissioner Annie Noonan. “The statistical variation in certain industries has been more difficult for Vermont to capture given the federal methodology. As such, the reported reduction of 2,100 jobs is more likely related to the difficulty in modeling Vermont’s seasonal hiring patterns, particularly related to education.
“Vermont continues to see many job openings at all levels. In fact, during the month of October, there were 6,600 online job ads in Vermont, which may reflect many more actual openings. Employers are strongly encouraged to work with the Vermont Department of Labor offices in your area for staff-assisted recruitment, screening and applicant referrals.
“Governor Shumlin has declared this week ‘Vermont Apprenticeship Week’ to highlight the great system of registered apprenticeship in Vermont. Apprenticeship provides a system to develop important skills while mentored by the employer, while earning a salary and a nationally-recognized credential.
“Vermont employers who are interested in participating as an employer-sponsor, or Vermonters who want to enter an apprenticeship, can call the VDOL at 802-828-5250.”
The October unemployment rates for Vermont’s 17 labor market areas ranged from 2.2 percent in White River Junction and Burlington-South Burlington to 3.7 percent in Derby (note: local labor market area unemployment rates are not seasonally-adjusted). For comparison, the October unadjusted unemployment rate for Vermont was 2.7 percent which reflects a decrease of seven-tenths of one percentage point from the revised unadjusted September level and a decrease of three-tenths of one percentage point from a year ago.
Not-Seasonally-Adjusted
The preliminary ‘not-seasonally-adjusted’ jobs estimates for October show an increase of 1,600 jobs when compared to the revised September numbers. There was a decrease of 200 jobs between the preliminary and the revised September estimates due to the inclusion of more data. The monthly increase seen in the October numbers was attributable to the seasonal nature of the public and private Education sector. The broader economic trends can be detected by focusing on the over-the-year changes in this data series. As detailed in the preliminary ‘not-seasonally-adjusted’ October data, Total Private industries have increased by 900 jobs (0.3 percent) and Government (including public education) employment has decreased by 400 jobs (-0.7 percent) in the past year.
Seasonally-Adjusted
The seasonally-adjusted data for October reports a decrease of 2,100 jobs from the revised September data. As with the ‘not-seasonally-adjusted’ data, this over-the-month change is from the revised September numbers which also experienced a decrease of 200 jobs from the preliminary estimates. The seasonally-adjusted over-the-month changes in October were varied at the sectoral level. Those with a notable percent increase include: Other Services (+200 jobs or +2.0%), Federal Government (+100 jobs or +1.4%) and Local Government (+200 jobs or +0.7%). Sectors with a notable percent decrease include: State Government (-800 jobs or -4.1%), Professional and Business Services (-500 jobs or -1.8%) and Trade, Transportation, & Utilities (-800 jobs or -1.4%).
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NOTE: Employment (nonfarm payroll) - A count of all persons who worked full- or part-time or received pay from a nonagricultural employer for any part of the pay period which included the 12th of the month. Because this count comes from a survey of employers, persons who work for two different companies would be counted twice. Therefore, nonfarm payroll employment is really a count of the number of jobs, rather than the number of persons employed. Persons may receive pay from a job if they are temporarily absent due to illness, bad weather, vacation, or labor-management dispute. This count is based on where the jobs are located, regardless of where the workers reside, and is therefore sometimes referred to as employment "by place of work." Nonfarm payroll employment data are collected and compiled based on the Current Employment Statistics (CES) survey, conducted by the Vermont Department of Labor. This count was formerly referred to as nonagricultural wage and salary employment.
