| Unemployment Rates for States Monthly Rankings Seasonally Adjusted July 2016prelim |
||
|---|---|---|
| Rank | State | Rate |
| 1 | SOUTH DAKOTA | 2.8 |
| 2 | NEW HAMPSHIRE | 2.9 |
| 3 | NEBRASKA | 3.1 |
| 3 | NORTH DAKOTA | 3.1 |
| 5 | VERMONT | 3.2 |
| 6 | HAWAII | 3.5 |
| 7 | VIRGINIA | 3.7 |
| 8 | COLORADO | 3.8 |
| 8 | IDAHO | 3.8 |
| 10 | ARKANSAS | 3.9 |
| 10 | MAINE | 3.9 |
| 10 | MINNESOTA | 3.9 |
| 10 | UTAH | 3.9 |
| 14 | IOWA | 4.1 |
| 14 | KANSAS | 4.1 |
| 14 | MASSACHUSETTS | 4.1 |
| 17 | MONTANA | 4.2 |
| 17 | WISCONSIN | 4.2 |
| 19 | DELAWARE | 4.3 |
| 19 | MARYLAND | 4.3 |
| 19 | TENNESSEE | 4.3 |
| 22 | MICHIGAN | 4.5 |
| 23 | INDIANA | 4.6 |
| 23 | TEXAS | 4.6 |
| 25 | FLORIDA | 4.7 |
| 25 | MISSOURI | 4.7 |
| 25 | NEW YORK | 4.7 |
| 25 | NORTH CAROLINA | 4.7 |
| 29 | OHIO | 4.8 |
| 30 | KENTUCKY | 4.9 |
| 31 | GEORGIA | 5.0 |
| 31 | OKLAHOMA | 5.0 |
| 33 | NEW JERSEY | 5.2 |
| 33 | OREGON | 5.2 |
| 33 | SOUTH CAROLINA | 5.2 |
| 36 | CALIFORNIA | 5.5 |
| 36 | RHODE ISLAND | 5.5 |
| 38 | PENNSYLVANIA | 5.6 |
| 39 | ALABAMA | 5.7 |
| 39 | CONNECTICUT | 5.7 |
| 39 | WEST VIRGINIA | 5.7 |
| 39 | WYOMING | 5.7 |
| 43 | ILLINOIS | 5.8 |
| 43 | WASHINGTON | 5.8 |
| 45 | DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA | 5.9 |
| 46 | ARIZONA | 6.0 |
| 46 | MISSISSIPPI | 6.0 |
| 48 | LOUISIANA | 6.3 |
| 49 | NEW MEXICO | 6.4 |
| 50 | NEVADA | 6.5 |
| 51 | ALASKA | 6.7 |
by Timothy McQuiston Vermont Business Magazine The state’s employment scene looks the same on paper, but there is uncertainty behind the numbers. The Vermont Department of Labor announced today that the seasonally-adjusted statewide unemployment rate for July was 3.2 percent. This represents no change from the revised June rate. However, all the major metrics pointed negative: the labor force decreased, as did the number of employed, while the number of unemployed increased.
It might be another month or so to understand whether employment is being maintained at its apparent high level, or whether it is worsening, as the unadjusted numbers suggest. The situation should clarify with the start of a new school year and the discrepancy between the adjusted and unadjusted numbers can be rectified.
The national rate in July was unchanged at 4.9 percent.
Overall, Vermont’s unemployment rate fell one spot to fifth lowest in the country for July. South Dakota was first at 2.8 percent and New Hampshrie was second at 2.9 percent. As of the prior month’s initial data, the Burlington-South Burlington Metropolitan NECTA was tied for the seventh lowest unemployment rate in the country for all metropolitan areas at 2.9 percent (not-seasonally-adjusted).
“The end of the public school year is captured in this month’s (July) data. Combined with the timing of the monthly data collection, the results are somewhat atypical. The “not-seasonally-adjusted” data shows a significant decline while the “seasonally-adjusted data” shows a significant increase. The variability in the monthly changes will look less significant once the school year end and late- August to early-September/school year start months are accounted for in the overall data. The Vermont economy continues to grow consistent with the national economy, albeit at a slower pace than we would prefer; however, there are many job openings across various sectors, including construction, professional and business services, education, health services, and leisure and hospitality. Visit your local Department of Labor Career Resource Center to learn about job-placement and job training services available to you,” said Labor Commissioner Annie Noonan.
The seasonally-adjusted Vermont data for July show the Vermont civilian labor force decreased by 150 from the prior month’s revised estimate. The number of employed decreased by 350 and the number of unemployed increased by 250. None of the over-the-month changes were statistically significant in the seasonally-adjusted series.
The July unemployment rates for Vermont’s 17 labor market areas ranged from 2.8 percent in White River Junction to 4.9 percent in Derby (note: local labor market area unemployment rates are not seasonally-adjusted). For comparison, the July unadjusted unemployment rate for Vermont was 3.4 percent which reflects no change from the revised unadjusted June level and a decrease of three-tenths of one percentage point from a year ago.
Not-Seasonally-Adjusted
The preliminary ‘not-seasonally-adjusted’ jobs estimates for July show a decrease of 4,000 jobs when compared to the revised June numbers. There was a decrease of 200 jobs between the preliminary and the revised June estimates due to the inclusion of more data. The monthly decrease seen in the July numbers was attributable to the seasonal nature of Local Government Education. The broader economic trends can be detected by focusing on the over-the-year changes in this data series. As detailed in the preliminary ‘not-seasonally-adjusted’ July data, Total Private industries have increased by 4,200 jobs (1.6 percent) and Government (including public education) employment has increased by 1,100 jobs (2.3 percent) in the past year.
Seasonally-Adjusted
The seasonally-adjusted data for July reports an increase of 3,000 jobs from the revised June data. As with the ‘not-seasonally-adjusted’ data, this over-the-month change is from the revised June numbers which experienced a 200 job decrease from the preliminary estimates. The seasonally-adjusted over-the-month changes in July were predominately positive at the sectorial level. Those with a notable percent increase include: Local Government (+1,400 jobs or +4.7%) and Administrative and Waste Services (+400 jobs or +3.7%). Industries with a notable percent decrease include: Arts, Entertainment and Recreation (-100 jobs or -2.2%) and Federal Government (-100 jobs or -1.4%).
NOTE: Employment (nonfarm payroll) - A count of all persons who worked full- or part-time or received pay from a nonagricultural employer for any part of the pay period which included the 12th of the month. Because this count comes from a survey of employers, persons who work for two different companies would be counted twice. Therefore, nonfarm payroll employment is really a count of the number of jobs, rather than the number of persons employed. Persons may receive pay from a job if they are temporarily absent due to illness, bad weather, vacation, or labor-management dispute. This count is based on where the jobs are located, regardless of where the workers reside, and is therefore sometimes referred to as employment "by place of work." Nonfarm payroll employment data are collected and compiled based on the Current Employment Statistics (CES) survey, conducted by the Vermont Department of Labor. This count was formerly referred to as nonagricultural wage and salary employment.
The Unemployment and Jobs Report for August is scheduled to be released on Tuesday, September 20, 2016 at 10:00 a.m.