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More optimism in latest Davis & Hodgdon economic outlook survey

Submitted by tim on

Vermont Business Magazine The results from the recent Vermont small business economic outlook survey indicate that, not surprisingly, key issues for Vermont businesses include health insurance costs, taxes, and finding qualified employees. These issues were identified for all Vermont businesses surveyed, regardless of size and county.Nearly 150 Vermont businesses completed the latest semi-annual economic survey in July regarding the outlook of Vermont’s small- to medium-sized businesses. The survey, presented by Davis & Hodgdon Associates CPAs and the Vermont Chamber of Commerce, revealed that business owners inside and outside of Chittenden county share a slightly increased level of optimism about the state’s economy. There is also a continued desire to see improvement in Vermont’s business climate and tax laws.

FULL RESULTS BELOW

• 34% of businesses exclusive to Vermont believe the state’s economy is improving (compared to 18% previously); 14% feel it is in decline (compared to 18% in January) and 37% indicate there is no change (compared to 61% previously).

• For businesses with out-of-state interests, the responses were nearly identical to those in January. 19% of businesses believe the state’s economy is improving (19% previously); 21% of businesses believe the state’s economy is in decline (compared to 24% previously) and 46% see no change (46% previously).

Interestingly, responses to the question of the Vermont economy were similar for Chittenden county businesses and all other counties.

• 20% of Chittenden county businesses describe Vermont’s economy as improving. 24% of respondents in all other Vermont county businesses shared this level of optimism.

• 17% of Chittenden county businesses and 19% of all other counties see Vermont’s economy in decline.

• 51 % of Chittenden county businesses believe that there has been no change in the economy versus 42% of all other county businesses.

When asked to describe the current state of the U.S. economy, 42% feel it is improving (49% in January), 18% believe it is declining (versus 12% in January), and 32% see no change at all (versus 31% in January).

Respondents’ expectations for business growth is similar to those from the January survey. 59% expect sales to increase (similar to the 56% who expected growth back in January), 46% intend to increase capital spending (compared to 42% previously), and 38% look to increase the size of their staff (versus 40% in January).

Respondents identified the top three key issues facing their business as health insurance costs (63%), taxes (Federal and State tax laws: 47% and Property tax: 19%), and finding qualified employees (57%). These are the same key issues that business owners have identified in the previous five semi-annual surveys, however it is noteworthy that they are more concerned about Vermont tax laws (31%) than with Federal tax laws (16%).

When asked to identify one business economic issue they want to see addressed by the state legislature this year, business owners voiced concerns over the high cost of healthcare, lack of state economic development initiatives, and continued concerns with high taxes and the high cost of doing business in Vermont.

“The results indicate that Vermont businesses are optimistic about the near future, but also want a greater focus on economic development strategies,” said, Betsy Bishop, President of the Vermont Chamber of Commerce.

“Somewhat surprisingly, it’s the same key issues for all Vermont businesses regardless of size and location,” said John Davis, managing partner of Davis & Hodgdon Associates. “We often hear about ‘two Vermonts’, however the survey responses reflect a very similar outlook regarding the state’s economy across all represented counties.”

About the Survey

The non-scientific survey, customized by Davis & Hodgdon to evaluate small- to medium-sized businesses, was completed by 149 businesses located throughout the state.

Full results below:

Overall Survey Results:

Davis & Hodgdon Associates Semi-Annual Economic Survey
Please check the top three issues facing your business in 2017:
Answer
0% 100%
Number of
Responses		 Response
Ratio
Overtime compensation changes
6 4.0%
Minimum wage changes (for those with minimum wage employees)
14 9.3%
Federal Taxes
24 16.1%
Vermont Taxes
46 30.8%
Health insurance costs
94 63.0%
Finding qualified employees
85 57.0%
Sources of financing
15 10.0%
Property tax (education funding)
29 19.4%
Internet security
33 22.1%
Succession planning
32 21.4%
Housing
6 4.0%
Other
30 20.1%
Totals 149 100%
How would you describe the current state of Vermont's economy?
Answer
0% 100%
Number of
Responses		 Response
Ratio
Improving
34 22.8%
No change
66 44.2%
Declining
28 18.7%
Unsure/Do not know
21 14.0%
No Responses
0 0.0%
Totals 149 100%
How would you describe the current state of the U.S. economy?
Answer
0% 100%
Number of
Responses		 Response
Ratio
Improving
62 41.6%
No change
48 32.2%
Declining
27 18.1%
Unsure/Do not know
11 7.3%
No Responses
1 1%
Totals 149 100%
What is the one key business economic issue that you would like to see addressed bythe state legislature?
Number of
Responses
129
How do you expect your company's sales to change in the next six months?
Answer
0% 100%
Number of
Responses		 Response
Ratio
Increase by less than 10%
55 36.9%
Increase by 10-30%
28 18.7%
Increase by 30+%
5 3.3%
Decrease by less than 10%
12 8.0%
Decrease by 10-30%
4 2.6%
Decrease by 30+%
2 1.3%
No change
43 28.8%
No Responses
0 0.0%
Totals 149 100%
How do you expect your company's capital spending to change in the next six months?
Answer
0% 100%
Number of
Responses		 Response
Ratio
Increase by less than 10%
44 29.5%
Increase by 10-30%
20 13.4%
Increase by 30+%
5 3.3%
Decrease by less than 10%
7 4.6%
Decrease by 10-30%
8 5.3%
Decrease by 30+%
2 1.3%
No change
63 42.2%
No Responses
0 0.0%
Totals 149 100%
How do you expect your company's employment to change in the next six months?
Answer
0% 100%
Number of
Responses		 Response
Ratio
Increase staffing by 1-3 people
48 32.2%
Increase staffing by 3+ people
9 6.0%
Decrease staffing by 1-3 people
6 4.0%
Decrease staffing by 3+ people
7 4.6%
No change
79 53.0%
No Responses
0 0.0%
Totals 149 100%
Which statements below reflect your mindset about doing business in Vermont over the last 6 months.
Answer
0% 100%
Number of
Responses		 Response
Ratio
I love doing business in Vermont.
31 20.8%
While doing business in Vermont has it's challenges, I'm committed to staying here because my customers/ clients/ products/ supply chain/ environment are here.
91 61.0%
I have thought about closing my business or moving it out of state
18 12.0%
Other
14 9.3%
Totals 149 100%
Has Vermont's overall tax burden caused you to consider relocation of your residence in the last 12 months?
Answer
0% 100%
Number of
Responses		 Response
Ratio
Yes, plans were put in motion
19 12.7%
Yes, but not serious consideration
51 34.2%
No
77 51.6%
No Responses
2 1.3%
Totals 149 100%
Please indicate your business industry.
Answer
0% 100%
Number of
Responses		 Response
Ratio
Agriculture
1 1%
Artisan
4 2.6%
Construction
9 6.0%
Educational Services
11 7.3%
Finance & Insurance
17 11.4%
Health Care & Social Assistance
12 8.0%
Hotel & Restaurant
8 5.3%
Information
4 2.6%
Manufacturing
10 6.7%
Professional, Technical
27 18.1%
Retail trade
14 9.3%
Transportation & Warehousing
2 1.3%
Utilities
0 0.0%
Wholesale Trade
1 1%
Other
28 18.7%
No Responses
1 1%
Totals 149 100%
County of Headquarters:
Answer
0% 100%
Number of
Responses		 Response
Ratio
Addison
12 8.0%
Bennington
1 1%
Caledonia
22 14.7%
Chittenden
35 23.4%
Essex
2 1.3%
Franklin
1 1%
Lamoille
1 1%
Orange
9 6.0%
Orleans
2 1.3%
Rutland
27 18.1%
Washington
11 7.3%
Windham
8 5.3%
Windsor
18 12.0%
No Responses
0 0.0%
Totals 149 100%
Please indicate the scope of your marketplace.
Answer
0% 100%
Number of
Responses		 Response
Ratio
Exclusive to Vermont
43 28.8%
Multi-state
64 42.9%
National
15 10.0%
International
26 17.4%
No Responses
1 1%
Totals 149 100%
If the scope of your marketplace is at the multi-state, national, and/or international level, please indicate the percentage of your business done outside of Vermont.
Answer
0% 100%
Number of
Responses		 Response
Ratio
Less than 25%
53 35.5%
25-50%
22 14.7%
50-75%
9 6.0%
75+%
24 16.1%
No Responses
41 27.5%
Totals 149 100%
Please identify your total annual revenue in fiscal year 2016.
Answer
0% 100%
Number of
Responses		 Response
Ratio
$0 - $250k
38 25.5%
$251k - $1M
39 26.1%
$1.1M - $3M
31 20.8%
$3M+
35 23.4%
No Responses
6 4.0%
Totals 149 100%
Please indicate your business' total number of employees including self.
Answer
0% 100%
Number of
Responses		 Response
Ratio
1 - 10
83 55.7%
11 - 25
26 17.4%
26 - 50
11 7.3%
51 - 75
7 4.6%
75+
20 13.4%
No Responses
2 1.3%
Totals 149 100%
Please enter the information indicated below if you would like additional information including results. (optional)
Answer Number of
Responses
First Name 55
Last Name 55
Company Name 55
Email Address 56
Would you be willing to discuss your survey answers?
Answer
0% 100%
Number of
Responses		 Response
Ratio
Yes
52 34.8%
No
77 51.6%
No Responses
20 13.4%
Totals 149 100%

January 2017 survey results:http://survey.constantcontact.com/survey/a07edkwpr3aiwmfsa3c/results

Davis & Hodgdon

Davis & Hodgdon Associates CPAs is a full-service public accounting firm with locations in Williston and Rutland Vermont. The firm is a member of several diverse regional and statewide business organizations and serves its clients by providing progressive, proactive services through expert staff, high-end technology, and unparalleled efficiency.

Vermont Chamber of Commerce

The Vermont Chamber of Commerce is the largest statewide, private, not-for-profit business organization. The Vermont Chamber mission is to create an economic climate conducive to business growth and the preservation of the Vermont quality of life.

Source:WILLISTON, Vt.,August 14, 2017–Davis & Hodgdon

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