Vermont Business Magazine Do Vermonters approve of how the president and governor are handling their jobs? If the elections were held today, how would they vote for governor, US Senator and a number of other statewide offices? To what extent is racism a problem in Vermont, and which expenses create the greatest financial stress? Vermont Public Radio and Vermont PBS have released the full results of a joint statewide poll that measures Vermonters’ opinions of the candidates and issues.
The VPR - Vermont PBS Poll was conducted from October 6-14 by Braun Research under the direction of Rich Clark, professor of political science at Castleton University and the former director of the Castleton Polling Institute. The poll surveyed 606 people living in all of Vermont's 14 counties via landline and mobile phone. The full results, methodology, and appendices are available for download at http://projects.vpr.net/vpr-vermont-pbs-poll.
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STORY October Survey Results Bode Well For Statewide IncumbentsVPR Gov. Phil Scott and the rest of Vermont’s incumbent statewide officeholders appear to be on a safe track toward re-election, according to the results of a new poll commissioned by VPR and Vermont PBS.
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The poll asked questions about the upcoming election, as well as questions about affordability, racism, partisanship, sexual harassment and Brett Kavanaugh’s recent confirmation to the Supreme Court.
Vermont PBS and VPR will provide extensive broadcast and digital coverage of the results this week, including:
• The VPR News Minute released every day this week on Vermont PBS and both Vermont
PBS and VPR’s social media channels
• VPR newscasts and stories throughout the week
• Vermont Edition, Tuesday at noon and 7 pm on VPR
• Vermont This Week, Friday at 7:30 pm on Vermont PBS
The Poll Results:
At-A-Glance
Q1. How closely do you follow news about national and state politics? Would you say very closely, somewhat closely, not very much, or not at all?
35% Very closely
36% Somewhat closely
19% Not very much
8% Not at all
1% Don’t know/Refused
606 Total Respondents
The full survey has a sampling error of 4%; this varies with the total respondents. See the Appendix below for the details on the sample and methods.
Q2. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as President?
24% Approve
59% Disapprove
14% Not Sure/No Opinion
2% Refused
606 Total Respondents
Q3. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Phil Scott is handling his job as Governor of Vermont?
45% Approve
26% Disapprove
28% Not sure/No opinion
1% Refused
606 Total Respondents
Q4. Have you already voted in the general election through early voting?
11% Yes
86% No
2% Not sure/No opinion
1% Refused
606 Total Respondents
Q5. How likely are you to vote in the November 6th election? Would you say you definitely will vote, probably will vote, probably will not vote, or definitely will not vote?
65% Definitely will vote
19% Probably will vote
8% Probably will not vote
5% Definitely will not vote
2% Not sure/No opinion
1% Refused
542 Total Respondents
Q6.If the election for Vermont’s Governor were held today, would you vote for...
42% Republican Phil Scott
28% Democrat Christine Hallquist
1% Independent Trevor Barlow
1% Independent Cris Ericson
1% Independent Charles Laramie
1% Liberty Union candidate Emily Peyton
0% Earth Rights candidate Stephen Marx
3% None/Write in/Other
22% Not sure/No opinion
495 Total Respondents
Q7. If the election for Vermont’s Lieutenant Governor were held today, would you vote for...
30% Republican Don Turner
47% Democrat Progressive David Zuckerman
3% Liberty Union candidate Murray Ngoima
1% None/Write in/Other
20% Not sure/No opinion
496 Total Respondents
Q8. If the election for US Senate were held today, would you vote for...
60% Independent Bernie Sanders
19% Republican Lawrence Zupan
0% Independent Folasade Adeluola
1% Independent Russell Beste
1% Independent Bruce Busa
1% Liberty Union candidate Reid Kane
1% Independent Brad Peacock
0% Independent Jon Svitavsky
3% None/Write in/Other
16% Not sure/No opinion
498 Total Respondents
Q9. If the election for US House of Representatives were held today, would you vote for...
55% Democrat Peter Welch
18% Republican Anya Tynio
3% Independent Cris Ericson
3% Liberty Union candidate Laura Potter
1% None/Write in/Other
20% Not sure/No opinion
497 Total Respondents
Q10. If the election for Vermont Attorney General were held today, would you vote for...
56% Democrat T.J. Donovan
17% Republican Jannsen Willhoit
3% Liberty Union Rosemarie Jackowski
3% None/Write in/Other
22% Not sure/No opinion
496 Total Respondents
Q11. If the election for Vermont Secretary of State were held today, would you vote for...
45% Democrat Jim Condos
22% Republican Brooke Paige
3% Liberty Union Mary Alice Herbert
2% None/Write in/Other
28% Not sure/No opinion
496 Total Respondents
Q12. Would you favor or oppose a payroll tax of roughly $70 per person a year, if the revenue were to provide new parents with up to 12 weeks of paid leave at 70% of their salary upon the birth of a child?
46% Favor
34% Oppose
19% Not sure/No opinion
1% Refused
606 Total Respondents
Q13. To what extent do you think racism is a problem in Vermont today? Would you say it is a big problem, somewhat of a problem, a small problem, or no problem at all?
17% Big problem
36% Somewhat problem
27% Small problem
16% No problem at all
4% Not sure/No opinion
1% Refused
606 Total Respondents
Q14. Do you think too little, just enough, or too much is being done to bring attention to racial issues in Vermont today?
40% Too little
29% Just enough
13% Too much
18% Not sure/No opinion
1% Refused
606 Total Respondents
For each idea, please say if you think it would help a lot, help some, or help very little in making Vermont more affordable.
606 Total Respondents
Q20. Consider your regular living expenses. Which single expense creates the most financial stress in your life?
18% Taxes
32% Housing costs (e.g. rent or mortgage)
6% Child care
8% Education
1% Eldercare
15% Health care costs (include prescriptions)
4% Transportation
7% Other
8% Not sure/No opinion
1% Refused
606 Total Respondents
Q21. Thinking about your plans for the next five years, are you planning on staying in Vermont or moving elsewhere?
77% Staying in Vermont
16% Moving elsewhere
7% Not Sure/No Opinion
0% Refused
606 Total Respondents
Q22. Have you personally experienced or witnessed sexual harassment in a Vermont workplace or institution?
26% Yes
70% No
3% Not Sure/No Opinion
0% Refused
606 Total Respondents
Q23. Looking back on all you know at this time, do you think the nomination of Brett Kavanaugh to the U.S. Supreme Court was the right choice or a poor choice?
28% Right choice
54% Poor choice
17% Not Sure/No Opinion
1% Refused
606 Total Respondents
Full Results, Method, Sampling Error & Survey
Download the Poll Data, Methodology, Sampling Error, Weighted Data & Survey Instrument
- Full Results XLS: by Gender, Party and Region (1st tab) and by Voter Registration, Education & Age (2nd tab)
- Appendix A: Methodology
Table 1: Sampling Error
Table 2: Representativeness of weighted data
Appendix B: Survey Instrument
The VPR - Vermont PBS Poll is a collaboration between Vermont Public Radio and Vermont PBS and was made possible by our supporters.Braun Researchconducted the poll under the direction ofDr. Richard Clark.
