by Timothy McQuiston, Vermont Business Magazine The Vermont Department of Labor announced today that the seasonally-adjusted statewide unemployment rate for August was 2.8 percent. This reflects no change from the revised July rate. The national rate in August was 3.9 percent, also unchanged. However, employment fell sharply for the month. The rate was unchanged because the labor force also decreased. The number of unemployed Vermonters rose slightly.
Meanwhile, nonfarm payrolls (which counts jobs not people, see note below) were down for the second consecutive month. The unadjusted payroll number showed a small improvement in August after a steep drop in July.
As of the prior month’s preliminary data, the Burlington-South Burlington Metropolitan NECTA was tied for the 19th lowest unemployment rate in the country for all metropolitan areas. Overall, Vermont’s unemployment rate was tied for fifth lowest in the country for the same time period.
“Vermont continues to experience both the upside and the downside of a low unemployment rate. Tight labor market conditions put those seeking employment in a good position to find work; however, those same conditions lead to significant recruiting challenges for Vermont employers as they look to fill new or vacant positions. The monthly employer data released today only reports on filled positions. It does not analyze unfilled positions of which we know there are many all across the state. The Department is working closely with job-seekers, employers and policy makers to improve outcomes for Vermonters. To learn about the individual level services or direct business services offered by the Vermont Department of Labor, please contact any one of the twelve local offices,” said Labor Commissioner Lindsay Kurrle in a press release.
The seasonally-adjusted Vermont data for August show the Vermont civilian labor force decreased by 860 from the prior month’s revised estimate. The number of employed persons decreased by 904 and the number of unemployed persons increased by 44. None of these changes were statistically significant in the seasonally-adjusted series, according to Labor.
The August unemployment rates for Vermont’s 17 labor market areas ranged from 2.2 percent in White River Junction to 4.0 percent in Derby (note: local labor market area unemployment rates are not seasonally-adjusted). For comparison, the August unadjusted unemployment rate for Vermont was 2.8 percent which reflects a decrease of one-tenth of one percentage point from the revised unadjusted July level and a decrease of one-tenth of one percentage point from a year ago.
Not-Seasonally-Adjusted
The preliminary ‘not-seasonally-adjusted’ jobs estimates for August show an increase of 200 jobs when compared to the revised July numbers. There was an increase of 100 jobs between the preliminary and the revised July estimates due to the inclusion of more data. The monthly increase seen in the August numbers was primarily attributable to seasonal activity related to public education. The broader economic trends can be detected by focusing on the over-the-year changes in this data series. As detailed in the preliminary ‘not-seasonally-adjusted’ August data, Total Private industries have decreased by 1,600 jobs (-0.6 percent) and Government (including public education) employment has decreased by 500 jobs (-1.0 percent) in the past year.
Seasonally-Adjusted
The seasonally-adjusted data for August reports a decrease of 800 jobs from the revised July data. As with the ‘not-seasonally-adjusted’ data, this over-the-month change is from the revised July numbers which experienced an increase of 300 jobs from the preliminary estimates.
The seasonally-adjusted over-the-month changes in August were mixed at the sector level. Those with a notable increase include: Real Estate, Rental & Leasing (+100 jobs or +3.2%), Non-Durable Goods Manufacturing (+200 jobs or +1.9%), and Private Education Services (+200 jobs or +1.5%). Sectors with a notable decrease include: Mining & Logging (-100 jobs or -12.5%), Arts, Entertainment & Recreation (-100 jobs or -1.9%), and State Government (-300 jobs or -1.6%).
NOTE: Employment (nonfarm payroll) - A count of all persons who worked full- or part-time or received pay from a nonagricultural employer for any part of the pay period which included the 12th of the month. Because this count comes from a survey of employers, persons who work for two different companies would be counted twice. Therefore, nonfarm payroll employment is really a count of the number of jobs, rather than the number of persons employed. Persons may receive pay from a job if they are temporarily absent due to illness, bad weather, vacation, or labor-management dispute. This count is based on where the jobs are located, regardless of where the workers reside, and is therefore sometimes referred to as employment "by place of work." Nonfarm payroll employment data are collected and compiled based on the Current Employment Statistics (CES) survey, conducted by the Vermont Department of Labor. This count was formerly referred to as nonagricultural wage and salary employment.
