Vermont unemployment rate holds at 2.8 percent, among lowest in US

by Timothy McQuiston, Vermont Business Magazine The Vermont Department of Labor announced today that the seasonally-adjusted statewide unemployment rate for June was 2.8 percent. This reflects no change from the revised May rate. The national rate in June was 4.0 percent, which was an increase of two-tenths of one percentage point from the revised May estimate. As of the prior month’s preliminary data, the Burlington-South Burlington Metropolitan NECTA was tied for the fourth lowest unemployment rate in the country for all metropolitan areas. Overall, Vermont’s unemployment rate was 6th lowest in the nation. Hawaii was lowest (2.1 percent). New Hampshire was tied for 3rd lowest (2.7 percent) and Alaska was highest (7.1 percent). SEE TABLES BELOW

All three major metrics increased, with Vermont importantly adding to the labor force while the number of employed also increased. The number of unemployed also increased. Vermont's unemployment rate has been steady and low for the last couple of years while the labor force and employment have slowly improved.

“The labor force participation rate in Vermont rose again in June, marking the sixth consecutive month of a rising rate of Vermonters active in the labor market. With a 67.6% labor force participation rate, Vermont is over four percentage points higher than the US estimate. Despite this increase, Vermont firms are still actively recruiting and report numerous openings across a wide range of occupations. The Department can be a resource for employers looking for talented workers and individuals interested in work. There are many opportunities to work together to help match up qualified candidates with good Vermont employers. It is not too late to learn about Summer Employment Opportunities through the Department. Contact any one of the Department’s 12 local offices to learn more about the services we offer,” said Labor Commissioner Lindsay Kurrle.

The seasonally-adjusted Vermont data for June show the Vermont civilian labor force increased by 426 from the prior month’s revised estimate. The number of employed persons increased by 327 and the number of unemployed persons increased by 99. None of these changes were statistically significant in the seasonally-adjusted series.

The June unemployment rates for Vermont’s 17 labor market areas ranged from 2.1 percent in White River Junction to 4.3 percent in Derby (note: local labor market area unemployment rates are not seasonally-adjusted). For comparison, the June unadjusted unemployment rate for Vermont was 3.0 percent which reflects an increase of four-tenths of one percentage point from the revised unadjusted May level and a decrease of one-tenth of one percentage point from a year ago.

Not-Seasonally-Adjusted

The preliminary ‘not-seasonally-adjusted’ jobs estimates for June show an increase of 4,200 jobs when compared to the revised May numbers. There was no change between the preliminary and the revised May estimates due to the inclusion of more data. The monthly increase seen in the June numbers was primarily attributable to seasonal hiring in leisure and hospitality. The broader economic trends can be detected by focusing on the over-the-year changes in this data series. As detailed in the preliminary ‘not-seasonally-adjusted’ June data, Total Private industries have decreased by 300 jobs (-0.1 percent) and Government (including public education) employment has decreased by 100 jobs (-0.2 percent) in the past year.

Seasonally-Adjusted

The seasonally-adjusted data for June reports an increase of 900 jobs from the revised May data. As with the ‘not-seasonally-adjusted’ data, this over-the-month change is from the revised May numbers which experienced an increase of 300 jobs from the preliminary estimates. The seasonally-adjusted over-the-month changes in June varied at the sector level. Those with a notable increase include: State Government (+400 jobs or +2.2%) and Professional & Technical Services (+300 jobs or +2.1%). Sectors with a notable decrease include: Private Educational Services (-200 jobs or -1.5%) and Retail Trade (-300 jobs or -0.8%).

Source: VT DOL. The Unemployment and Jobs Report for July is scheduled to be released on Friday, August 17, 2018