Vermont unemployment rate for January unchanged at 2.9 percent

by Timothy McQuiston Vermont Business Magazine The Vermont Department of Labor announced today that the seasonally-adjusted statewide unemployment rate for January was 2.9 percent. This reflects no change from the revised December rate. The broad metrics all showed mild improvement. The seasonally-adjusted Vermont data for January show the Vermont civilian labor force increased by 276 from the prior month’s revised estimate. The number of employed persons increased by 443 and the number of unemployed persons decreased by 167. The changes were not statistically significant in the seasonally-adjusted series. However, the unadjusted unemployment rate increased month-to-month and year-to-year.

The December rate had been reported by the Vermont Labor Department as 2.8 percent, a drop of one-tenth from the November 2018, but was revised to 2.9 percent. So, the Vermont jobless rate is now unchanged since September, when it fell one-tenth from August. A year-ago January it was 3.1 percent.

The national rate in January was 4.1 percent. The Burlington-South Burlington Metropolitan NECTA was tied for the fifth lowest unemployment rate in the country for all metropolitan areas at 1.9 percent. Overall, Vermont’s unemployment rate was tied for the fourth lowest in the country for January 2018. New Hampshire was tied for second lowest at 2.6 percent. Hawaii was lowest at 2.1 percent. Alaska was highest at 7.3 percent (see tables below).

Regarding the Labor Force numbers, Governor Phil Scott said in a statement: "Today’s labor market information reaffirms my Administration’s commitment to growing Vermont’s labor force, and illustrates why it’s more important than ever to increase the number of working people in our state.

“While we continue to see a low unemployment rate, our labor force also continues to be significantly lower than it was at its peak – with about 15,000 fewer than in 2009.

“Working together to grow and strengthen the workforce will help us ensure all Vermonters have a path to meaningful employment while supporting Vermont businesses with the workers they need to fill jobs that are open, today.

“That’s why we’ve put forward proposals to retain a greater portion of Vermont’s high school and college graduates and expand adult career technical education, and why we’ve proposed a bold recruitment and relocation program, ThinkVermont/MOVE.

“Adding workers will broaden the tax base and increase revenues, effectively lowering the burden on hardworking tax payers to make our state more affordable.

“With the second half of the legislative session still in front of us, I hope we can come together with the Legislature on many of these proposals before adjournment.”

“This release of January 2018 data shows Vermont continues to be on a positive economic track. The unemployment rate is low and employers continue to add jobs. The limiting factor on economic growth in Vermont is the labor force. Employers are reporting openings for jobs they cannot fill due to a lack of applicants. This reinforces and underlines the importance of the Department’s work in improving employment outcomes for anyone seeking work in Vermont. If you want to work in Vermont, or already have a job in Vermont but are looking for a new opportunity, please contact any of the Department’s Career Resource Centers which are spread across the state,” said Labor Commissioner Lindsay Kurrle in a press release.

While the Vermont seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate held steady in January at a level of 2.9 percent, the final December estimate was revised up one-tenth of one percentage point.

The January unemployment rates for Vermont’s 17 labor market areas ranged from 2.3 percent in White River Junction to 6.4 percent in Derby (note: local labor market area unemployment rates are not seasonally-adjusted). For comparison, the January unadjusted unemployment rate for Vermont was 3.3 percent which reflects an increase of eight-tenths of one percentage point from the revised unadjusted December level and a decrease of four-tenths of one percentage point from a year ago.

Not-Seasonally-Adjusted

The preliminary ‘not-seasonally-adjusted’ jobs estimates for January show a decrease of 6,000 jobs when compared to the revised December numbers. There was a decrease of 3,400 jobs between the preliminary and the revised December estimates due to the inclusion of more data. The monthly decrease seen in the January numbers was primarily attributable to seasonal movements in construction and education related industries. The broader economic trends can be detected by focusing on the over-the-year changes in this data series. As detailed in the preliminary ‘not-seasonally-adjusted’ January data, Total Private industries have increased by 1,100 jobs (0.4 percent) and Government (including public education) employment has increased by 600 jobs (1.1 percent) in the past year.

Seasonally-Adjusted

The seasonally-adjusted data for January reports an increase of 600 jobs from the revised December data. As with the ‘not-seasonally-adjusted’ data, this over-the-month change is from the revised December numbers which experienced a decrease of 2,900 jobs from the preliminary estimates. The seasonally-adjusted over-the-month changes in January were mostly positive at the sector level. Those with a notable percent increase include: Other Services (+300 jobs or +2.9%), Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities (+100 jobs or +1.3%), and Durable Goods Manufacturing (+200 jobs or +1.1%). Sectors with a notable percent decrease include: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation (-200 jobs or -4.3%) and Local Government (-100 jobs or -0.3%).

The Unemployment and Jobs Report for February is scheduled to be released on Friday, March 23, 2018 at 10:00 a.m.

Last Modified Date: March 12, 2018