by John McCormick The Vermont Climate Council and the Legislature are determined to electrify the transport fleet and buildings. Think about that. Nearly 75% of Vermont’s global-warming carbon dioxide emissions eliminated by shifting to off-the-shelf, readily available technologies. No R&D required.
Trading a gas guzzler for an electric vehicle eliminates 8 to 11 tons of CO2. Weatherizing can save 300-400 gallons of heating oil and eliminate 3 to 5 tons of carbon dioxide. These are the most effective and rapidly deployed remedies to slow global warming. The private sector is stepping up and investing heavily in an electric future. Vermonters have to step up as well.
In this moment of national political upheaval, it is reassuring to see supply and demand gearing up to replace fuels.
The council is drafting its report to the governor and legislators. It might propose increasing EVs by 40,000 and weatherizing 120,000 homes by 2030. Bring it on and make the shifts smart and transparent. The electric power sector is a critical component. Demand increase will challenge Vermont’s grid options.
Daily Vermont electric load is about 1,000 megawatts. The council’s aggressive plans could increase electric load by 40 to 100 megawatts. That will not come from new gas, oil or biomass. Renewable energy should meet the increase relying on in-state wind and solar.
However, protecting natural resources and NIMBY opposition will limit that option. In the near future, Vermont will look for more power imports: Hydro-Quebec, New England and New York generators.
In 2018, Vermonters used 5.5 trillion kilowatt-hours (TWh) of electricity. Vermont’s distributor utilities provided 2.2 TWh. Imports from Hydro-Quebec added 1.3 TWh and nuclear 1.2 TWh.
The shortfall was provided by New England and New York gas and oil furnaces that emitted an average 1.51 pounds of carbon dioxide per kilowatt-hour. Using Vermont Public Service Department and U.S. EPA data, my analysis estimated the power import created 654,184 tons of CO2 for which Vermonters are responsible. Plug in everything electric and those “import” gas and oil units will run harder.
Can this electrification policy comply with Vermont’s mandate to lower global warming pollutants? It must. Vermont can look to the tremendous renewable energy potential in the Atlantic Ocean.
President Biden announced Oct. 13 a bold plan to develop large-scale wind farms along coastlines to produce electricity from offshore turbines. He pledged to permit 30 gigawatts of offshore wind by 2030 and encouraged onshore infrastructure and supply chain investments to unlock a pathway to a potential 110 gigawatts of offshore wind power. New England has 27 gigawatts of CO2-emitting oil- and gas-fired capacity.
Massachusetts wind developers are miles ahead of him. In May, Vineyard Wind received permits for an 800-megawatt farm off Cape Cod and is negotiating with European partners to build an additional 1.2 gigawatts of wind power nearby. Offshore wind power is a proven, mainstream technology. Europe now has 18 gigawatts of offshore wind capacity (nine times larger than Vineyard Wind).
Green Mountain Power’s 2018 integrated resource plan declared offshore wind could “potentially become an attractive option for us in the future.” Recognizing its small renewable power needs, it suggested a very timely and attractive path into the offshore wind industry: “The most likely way for us to participate would be to seek a long-term power purchase agreement as part of a much larger solicitation conducted by a neighboring state or aggregation of states or utilities.”
Green Mountain Power, however, does have a long-term need to add renewable power sources. From the integrated resource plan: “Our estimated need for additional renewable resources to meet Tier I requirements is substantial, however, at roughly 800,000 to 1 million megawatt-hours per year from the mid-2020s onward. This raises the question of whether it may be appropriate to seek additional long-term renewable sources in the 2020s. The offshore wind could offer an attractive seasonal output profile and diversity from our other renewable resources.”
John McCormick, director of the Louise Diamond Committee to Protect Next Generations, which is based in Bristol. It’s a project of the Arlington, Va.-based Institute for Multi-Track Diplomacy.